Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAGHDAD481
2006-02-16 09:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

SCHEMING IN BAGHDAD: SUNNI ARAB DESCRIBES PLAN TO

Tags:  PGOV PNAT KDEM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9243
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHGB #0481/01 0470929
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 160929Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2722
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000481 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM
SUBJECT: SCHEMING IN BAGHDAD: SUNNI ARAB DESCRIBES PLAN TO
BLOCK JAFARI; ALLAWI LIST WONDERS IF KURDS TRULY IN

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000481

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PNAT KDEM
SUBJECT: SCHEMING IN BAGHDAD: SUNNI ARAB DESCRIBES PLAN TO
BLOCK JAFARI; ALLAWI LIST WONDERS IF KURDS TRULY IN

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Allawi allies told us February 15 that
the USG should urge Talabani to join with Sunni Arabs and
Allawi to form a larger parliamentary bloc than that of the
Shia Islamist List 555. Separately, Sunni Arab Tawafuq
Front official Mahmoud al-Mashadani speculated that Sunni
and Kurdish parties could join with Allawi's list, SCIRI
and Fadhilah to make Fadhilah leader Nadeem al-Jabiri prime
minister. Mashadani also maintained that there has been a
sea change in the insurgency, which now fears occupation by
Iran, not the U.S. END SUMMARY

--------------
ALLAWI ALLIES LOOK TO KURDS
--------------


2. (C) A number of attendees at a February 15 Allawi-list
civil society event told Poloffs that the Kurds would side
with them in the assembly but had not yet agreed to join
them in forming a government. Allawi allies Shaykh Adnan
al-Janabi and Dr. Hatem Mukhlis said that the USG should
urge "the Kurds" -- meaning Talabani -- to join with the
Sunni Arabs and Allawi to form the largest parliamentary
bloc. This bloc then would be in the driver's seat for
government formation. Shaykh Adnan told Poloff that the
Kurds were expressing caution, saying that to join with the
Sunni Arabs and Allawi would provoke the Shia Islamists.
The key, both Shaykh Adnan and Hatem Mukhlis said, was
whether Hakim would be willing to break with Jafari. If
so, they said, the PM race would be wide open. (Comment:
we await the return of al-Hakim from Najaf where he went
February 15 to consult with Ayatollah SISTANI. End
Comment.)

--------------
MASHADANI DESCRIBES AN ALTERNATIVE COALITION
--------------


3. (C) Mahmud Mashadani, a leader of the Tawafuq Coalition,
told Poloff February 15 that his Sunni Arab bloc is
considering supporting a new political coalition to counter
a Jafari-led government. Under this proposal, Tawafuq
would join the Kurds, Allawi and elements of the Shia List
555, including Fadhila and SCIRI, to claim the Prime
Ministership for Fadhila leader Nadim al-Jabiri. In

addition to these large parties, Mashadani said the new
coalition would have the votes of Saleh Mutlak's Dialog
Front -- with or without Mutlak himself -- and a handful
of the minority parties. Mashadani suggested that the core
negotiating group for this coalition should include Mahmud
Barzani, Ayad Allawi, Sheykh Khalaf al-Ayan, Adb al-Aziz
Hakim, Nadim al-Jabiri, Abd al-Mahdi and Barham Saleh.
When asked by poloff whether Jalal Talabani should also be
included Mashadani snapped "no, one Iranian at the table is
enough!" (NOTE: It is safe to assume he meant al-Hakim.)


4. (C) Mashadani rounded out his government post
proposals by suggesting Talabani as president, Khalaf al-
Ayan as Vice President, Tariq al-Hashimi as Speaker and
Mashadani, himself, as Deputy Prime Minister for Security.
Mashadani also suggested that Adnan Dulaymi, as the "elder
statesman", would be ideal for the proposed National
Security Committee. Mashadani said that Tawaffug is united
behind Tariq al-Hashimi as its leader; he is the only Sunni
Arab leader who has the strategic vision, education and
presence for national leadership. Addressing concerns
about the salafist base of the Sunni Tawafuq, Mashadani
assured poloff that Iraqi salafists are more flexible than
their counterparts in other Arab countries. (Comment:
the truth of this assertion is not self-evident. End
Comment.)

--------------
IRAN, NOT U.S., WORRIES INSURGENTS
--------------


5. (C) Mashadani said the U.S. had "burned" Allawi as a PM
candidate, but that the former PM would be acceptable as a
Deputy Prime Minister provided that Tawafuq gets the MOI
and the Kurds get MOD. Security remains the most important
issue for Sunni Arabs and the MOI must be accepted by the
resistance if the latter are to lay down their arms.
Mashadani claimed that there has been a sea change on the
part of the insurgency. He claimed that insurgents no
longer worry about a US occupation, only that of Iran. He
claimed that at a recent meeting, insurgent leaders
specifically said no to Iran, no to Saddamists, and no to
Al-Qaida, but accepted the U.S. presence.

BAGHDAD 00000481 002 OF 002



-------------- -
PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS SOONER, NOT LATER
-------------- -


6. (C) Mashadani said provincial elections should be held
no later than two months after the government is formed.
He confided that there would have to be movement on
constitution review or the street would react. However, he
said it might be possible to delay constitution review and
federalism for a year or more, as he had heard Iran has
told Hakim to back off on his proposal for a southern
region. Mashadani made a plea for the USG to help provide
security for the National Dialogue. They are threatened
daily by Al-Quaida and the IG and need armored cars, gun
permits, and a secure compound for their party. (Note:
Embassy is assisting with these requests. End note.)

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Mashadani's expression of readiness to
work across sectarian lines is encouraging; his head is in
it, but we are not certain his heart truly is. In
particular, we should not rely too heavily on his professed
readiness to work with SCIRI and Fadhilah. Indeed, the
Sunni Arab Tawafuq largely blames SCIRI and the Badr Corps
for much of the violence directed at the Sunni Arabs. END
COMMENT


KHALILZAD