TALABANI SAYS JAFARI NOT YET A LOCK FOR PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000441 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: TALABANI SAYS JAFARI NOT YET A LOCK FOR PRIME MINISTER Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) President Jalal Talabani informed Ambassador on February 12 that the Shia Coalition had narrowly voted in favor of current Prime Minister Jafari to remain in his post by a count of 64 votes to SCIRI candidate Adil Abd al-Mahdi's 63 votes, with one Sadrist absent. Da'wa, Da'wa-Tanzim, and the Sadrists have refused to work with former PM Ayad Allawi and his Iraqi National Accord list in the new government, according to Talabani. However, he continued, the Kurds have already stated publicly that any national unity government must include Allawi. ¶2. (C) Talabani then claimed that Jafari's re-election as PM is not definite -- if Fadhila and SCIRI could be persuaded to join a separate coalition. An alliance of the Kurds, all of the disparate Sunni Arab lists, and Allawi's list would equal 142 seats; if Fadhila and SCIRI join, Talabani said, it would be the end of the Shia Coalition. He added that such a coalition could challenge Jafari's nomination as not being truly representative of the people's will. Talabani reported that he would talk to Abd al-Mahdi about this. Ambassador stated that the U.S. supports the democratic process in Iraq and that it seems as though Jafari had fairly won the Shia nomination. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Appearing angry and forceful, Talabani made clear in a press conference after the meeting that the Kurds would not accept a cabinet that excluded Ayad Allawi's party. Talabani's press conference ratcheted up the political posturing in government formation. END COMMENT. KHALILZAD