MUTHANNA AND DHI QAR OFFICIALS CAUTIOUSLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004183

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS IZ
SUBJECT: MUTHANNA AND DHI QAR OFFICIALS CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT LOCAL SECURITY SITUATION


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel V. Speckhard for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an October 30 meeting with National
Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and the DCM, political
leaders and security chiefs of Dhi Qar and Muthanna provinces
characterized their provinces as relatively calm but raised
concerns about the number and readiness of the ISF in their
areas. They stressed the importance of securing Baghdad,
saying "if the GOI succeeds in Baghdad, then we will
succeed." Dhi Qar and Muthanna are the two southern
provinces where MNF-I has transferred security responsibility
to the Iraqi security forces (ISF). End summary.


2. (C) The provincial council (PC) chairmen, governor or
deputy governor (in the case of Muthanna),police chiefs, and
army commanders from Dhi Qar and Muthanna said that their
provinces were relatively calm thanks to good coordination
between the security agencies and to good political
relationships with different groups in the provinces. Yet
they also expressed concern at the capability of their forces
to maintain security should the situation change. They cited
insufficient arms and vehicles for the ISF, with the chairman
of the Muthanna PC claiming that half of the police force in
his province lacked weapons. The governor and police chief
of Dhi Qar noted that their province lacked a police training
academy, and the Iraqi army commander in Muthanna said that
his ability to conduct training was hampered by land
ownership disputes at the former Japanese base in Muthanna.
Leaders from both provinces characterized the militias as
"better armed than us" and called for the central government
to disburse fun
ds earmarked for provincial security enhancements.


3. (C) The police chief from Dhi Qar noted that one factor
facilitating the province's relative calm was a "political
agreement" reached between the province's Italian forces, the
ISF, and militia elements. "We can deal with the militias by
social means and consensus," the police chief continued,
noting that he had taken the Italians to negotiate with the
militias. "Sometimes it is easy to deal with a problem: if
the militias say not to pass on a certain stretch of road,
you can use another road. The Italians have a good
relationship with all." The British Chief of Staff from
MNF-SE agreed that the Italian forces had come to a
reasonable political accommodation in Dhi Qar, noting the
need to "separate out moderate elements of Iraqi militias and
have a dialogue with them, if they are willing." He related
that MNF-SE's challenge is how to support security in the
south with limited forces and described Basrah security and
controlling the flow of arms across the Iranian border as
MNF-SE's most important prior
ities. While agreeing that good relationships had allowed
for a calm transfer of power, the Iraqi army commander in Dhi
Qar said that he awaited only a "political order" to move
against the militias.


4. (C) Leaders from both provinces emphasized the importance
of employment and economic development. The governor of Dhi
Qar, for example, hailed a U.S.-supported irrigation project
but called for it to be doubled. He likewise expressed hope
that the opening of a regional office of the Ministry of Oil
would allow for exploitation of six existing oil wells.
Officials from both provinces also expressed concern about
the security situation in Baghdad, with the governor of Dhi
Qar saying "if the GOI succeeds in Baghdad, then we will
succeed." He and the deputy governor of Muthanna urged U.S.
support for Prime Minister Maliki and his government. Hadley
replied that the media stories questioning the degree of U.S.
support for Maliki were simply untrue and that President Bush
fully supported the Maliki unity government as it was the
result of a process in which over 12 million Iraqis voted.
KHALILZAD