CROSS SECTARIAN, MODERATE BLOC FORMING IN IRAQ?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004180

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: CROSS SECTARIAN, MODERATE BLOC FORMING IN IRAQ?

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: During a November 2 meeting with the
Ambassador, Iraqi Council of Representatives (CoR) Speaker
Mahmoud Mashadani and Fadhila CoR member Nadeem Al-Jabbari
said they are working to form a moderate issues-based,
cross-sectarian bloc in the CoR. They hope to build on what
they claim is public disillusionment with religious party
politics and advocate reforms, transparency and an end to
quota-based sectarianism in government. The bloc would
strengthen the CoR's oversight role of the GOI and oppose
corruption without regard to sect. Mashadani pledged support
for the idea and says he is confident that it could gain a
following among political leaders and with the Iraqi public.
End Summary.

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MODERATES MUST UNITE
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2. (C) CoR Speaker Mahmoud Mashadani told the Ambassador that
he has taken seriously NSA Hadley's suggestion that Sunnis
seek moderates from both sides and find consensus on issues.
Mashadani told the Ambassador he went to Jordan during the
Ramadan CoR recess, where he met with other "patriotic
Iraqis" who had not taken an active part in the political
process until now and found many willing partners for a new
cross-sectarian political bloc.


3. (C) Traditional alliances are fading, Al-Jabbari told the
Ambassador, as the Iraqi public is disillusioned with
religious party politics and sectarian quotas for government
positions. Iraqis are criticizing their elected officials
and the Shiite religious scholars (marjaeeya) that encouraged
the public to vote for them. Fadhila party members,
Al-Jabbari continued, are some of the few voices in Shiite
Itilaf bloc who opposed the appointment of PM Maliki on the
same sectarian basis as former PM Al-Jaafari. Fadhila
believed from the start that this quota system was a bad
mechanism for job distribution and would ultimately lead to
disaster for Iraq - and they had been right, Al-Jabbari
argued. The solution is to call for a gradual break-up of
the Shia coalition, according to Al-Jabbari. He announced
this to the media in Cairo recently.


4. (C) Shortly after his announcement, Al-Jabbari said, an
Itilaf delegation came to visit and asked why he was behaving
as an enemy to the bloc. However, many Fadhila members and
others agreed with the concept, he opined, their support
would strengthen over time as many waited to see what "strong
personalities" led the way. Fear of violent reprisals was a
concern for many potential allies, Mashadani pointed out.
Anyone who joined the new bloc would need increased security
as a guarantee of their safety.

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GOALS OF THE NEW BLOC
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5. (C) Al-Jabbari envisions a group of 60 CoR members
(Fadhila currently has 15) forming the nucleus of this
moderate bloc. He said that the group would be to "activate
parliamentary oversight" of GOI ministries and call for an
end to corruption, acting as a whistleblower regardless of
sect. The oversight group would consist of CoR members and
objective, apolitical government outsiders.

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CHANCES FOR SUCCESS
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6. (C) CoR Speaker Mashadani said he would work "behind the
scenes" to support the new bloc, and said he was certain it
would appeal to the Iraqi public. But in order to succeed,
he cautioned, the bloc would need sufficient finances, and
neighboring country and international support. The
Ambassador noted that for the group to succeed, it must be
composed of genuinely committed individuals who believe in
the project, not opportunists.


7. (C) Comment: In late June, moderate Sunni CoR member and
businessman Wathab Shakir Al-Dulaimi, disillusioned with
religious party politics, circulated a petition in the CoR
calling for the formation of a similar moderate group. A
number of CoR members signed, but nothing ever came of the
initiative and Al-Dulaimi subsequently left Iraq. But after
four months of parliamentary experience, some CoR members see
the benefits of cross-sectarian, issues-based alliances.
Iraqi People's Conference (IPC) CoR member Dhafer Al-Ani,
former chair of the regions committee who resigned his post
in protest of the regions law and departed to the Emirates,
has been making press statements in support of forming such a
bloc. National Dialogue Council (NDC) CoR member Abdulnasr

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Al-Janabi expressed support for this plan to the Ambassador
on Nov 3 (septel). EMBASSY will closely watch how successful
he and other proponents will be at gaining broad-based
support.
KHALILZAD