REACTION TO SADDAM DECISION FALLS ALONG SECTARIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 004139

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: REACTION TO SADDAM DECISION FALLS ALONG SECTARIAN
LINES

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Initial Iraqi reaction to the Saddam verdict
and sentence has fallen along predictable sectarian lines,
with Shiites and Kurds pleased, even celebratory, and Sunnis
either silent or critical of the trial and the sentence.
Shiite celebrations have so far been exuberant but peaceful.
It is too soon to say whether this event will have a
significant impact on sectarian feelings. End Summary.

Shiites Pleased, Celebratory
--------------


2. (C) Shiites are vocally pleased, even celebratory, about
the verdict and sentence. PM Maliki addressed the nation on
television. Calling Saddam "the worst ruler in Iraq's
history," Maliki said the ruling demonstrated the rule of law
and judicial objectivity. Maliki depicted the death sentence
as insignificant compared to Saddam's killings of Shiites
(Maliki listed a number of Shiite "martyrs"),Kurds, Turkomen
and Assyrians. The PM notably omitted from his list Sunnis
who suffered under Saddam, later adding that Saddam could not
be categorized as from any one group because he massacred
many people. The PM declared that the GOI is "building a new
Iraq" that would never practice discrimination and is not
against those without blood on their hands.


3. (C) Shiite SCIRI leader Adulaziz al-Hakim issued a
statement celebrating the "long-awaited day" when the
"criminal tyrant Saddam" was sentenced for "three decades of
crimes and destruction...in a public court with the world
watching." Al-Hakim sounded one of the few
almost-conciliatory notes of any Iraqi leader, calling for
Iraqis to pull together and for "regional forces" and media
outlets to refrain from sowing discord among Iraqis.


4. (C) Independent Shia Deputy COUNCIL of Representatives
(CoR) Speaker Khalid al-Attiyah said the public should be
happy with this decision against the "tyrannical regime";
Shiite COUNCIL of Ministers spokesperson Ali Al-Dabbagh said
the defendants deserved the sentences; Shiite CoR member
Hasan al-Shammeri (Fadhila party) called the judgment "right
and fair"; independent Shiite CoR member Sami al-Askari
called for celebration.

Kurds: "A Great Day"
--------------


5. (C) Kurdish leaders have publicly expressed support for
the verdict and sentence, although reaction has been more
measured than Shiite reaction. Kurdish Alliance (KAL) CoR
bloc leader Faud Ma'sum, called the decision good for all
Iraqis; KAL CoR Deputy Speaker Arif Taifour expressed
happiness with the decision and said the day had been a
"great day."


6. (C) Taifour was not troubled by the prospect that Saddam
might be executed before the end of his trial arising out of
the 1980s Anfal campaign against Kurds, saying that
convicting "Chemical Ali" Majid is more important. However,
KAL CoR member Mahmoud Othman, while also pleased with the
verdict, said it would be good for Saddam to be alive for the
end of Anfal trial.


7. (C) As of early evening November 5, Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) President Masoud Barzani had not issued a
statement, nor had Kurdish GOI President Talabani or FM
Zebari, both of whom are outside the country on official
travel.

Sunnis Muted, Critical
--------------


8. (C) Sunni reaction has ranged from muted to critical of
the conduct of the trial and impact of the verdict and
sentence on Iraqi society. IIP VP Tariq al-Hasimi declined
to attend the sentencing, ostensibly because he is preparing
for a November 6 trip to the Gulf States. An IIP statement
called the trial a distraction from the shortcomings of the
Maliki government and said the current "crimes" of sectarian
persecution exceeded Saddam's.


9. (C) In a television interview, Sunni Hewar party leader
Salih Mutlaq accused the GOI of being extremist and
supporting death squads, and warned that the death sentence
would lead to violence. Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars
leader Harith al-Dari characterized the trial as politically
motivated.


10. (C) Outspoken Iraqi People's Conference COR member
Hussein al-Falluji also said the trial was a politicized
affair, the judges were not objective, and the verdict and

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sentence was deliberately timed to coincide with U.S.
elections. Al-Falluji added that the verdict represented a
condemnation of all Sunni people.


11. (C) On the extreme end of Sunni opinion, the day before
the verdict, NATIONAL Dialogue COUNCIL CoR member Abdulnasr
al-Janabi said that a death sentence for Saddam would rip
Iraqi society apart, adding that Saddam should be kept alive
to keep the Shia scared.


12. (C) Sunni Endowment head Ahmed Abdul Ghafour al-Samarraii
gave the most positive response of any high-level Sunni
leader, admitting that Saddam "hurt everyone, Sunnis, Shias
and Kurds alike."

Baghdad Reacts Along Sectarian Lines
--------------


13. (C) The mood was jubilant in Baghdad's heavily-Shiite
Sadr City district, featuring public gatherings and
ubiquitous placards of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
Shiites in Baghdad's Rasheed district expressed satisfaction
with the decision, reportedly celebrating publicly despite a
curfew. Shiites also marched in celebration in other Shiite
districts of Baghdad. Embassy officers heard prolonged
celebratory gunfire for over an hour after the verdict, with
some projectiles landing inside the Embassy compound.


14. (C) Baghdad's Sunni residents were not surprised by the
verdict and sentence. Some attributed it to the court's
preventing Saddam's lawyers from presenting an adequate
defense, but otherwise Baghdad's Sunni residents reacted
quietly.

And So Do Other Regions
--------------


15. (C) Regional reaction has also fallen along sectarian
lines:

-- REO Basrah reported celebrations in the heavily-Shiite
southern governorates of Basrah, Muthanna, Maysan and Dhi
Qar. In the city of Basrah (Iraq's second largest city),
people demonstrated and lit celebratory fires.

-- The city of Najaf, the spiritual center of Shiism, was
effectively closed down by peaceful celebrations. People
congregated peacefully at the Imam Ali shrine. Najaf
governor Asaad al-Taee issued a statement praising the
verdict; Najaf residents ignored his admonitions against
celebratory fires.

-- In Shiite Karbala, residents celebrated around holy
shrines, and imams at the shrines were heard congratulating
the congregations over loudspeakers.

-- In Kut, the capital of heavily-Shiite Wasit governorate,
residents danced in the streets and lit celebratory fires.

-- Reaction in Babil province, with a Shiite south and Sunni
north, was along sectarian lines. Celebratory gunfire was
heard in south Babil, while some ex-Ba'athists protested the
verdict in north Babil. A north Babil Sunni leader said
Sunnis opposed the verdict and called Saddam Iraq's
"protector" against occupiers. Both Shiite and Sunni Babil
residents alike reportedly expressed fear the verdict would
make them targets of sectarian violence.

-- Reaction in the Kurdish city of Erbil has been
surprisingly muted. PRT Erbil Provincial Action Officer
(PAO) was meeting with local officials when the verdict was
announced; officials said they were pleased, but without a
sense of celebration. PAO saw no celebrations in Erbil's
streets and heard no celebratory gunfire, unlike the reaction
to Saddam's arrest.

-- In the mixed city of Kirkuk, a potential ethnic and
sectarian flashpoint, Kurdish, Shiite and Turkmen leaders
expressed satisfaction and happiness with the verdict to PRT
personnel; one Sunni leader called the court biased, the
trial political, and claimed Shiites controlled the court.

-- The mixed city of Mosul was shut down for SECURITY
reasons, so there were no public celebrations, but local
staff report enthusiastic Kurdish and Shiites responses to
the sentence. Sunnis reaction is split: Ba'athists reject
the sentence and cite it as evidence of the GOI's
"illegitimacy," while more moderate Sunnis hope the verdict
will help reconciliation.

-- In the Salah ad Din governorate capital Tikrit, a Saddam
stronghold, there were small demonstrations (30-100 people)

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protesting the decision. In the nearby town of al-Dur, the
courthouse was set afire in protest and Iraqi SECURITY forces
stopped approximately 100 vehicles trying to enter the town.

-- In heavily-Sunni Anbar, a local shiekh's representative
said Anbar residents were indifferent to Saddam, but would
nevertheless be incensed at the death sentence.


16. (C) Comment: So far, reactions by political leaders and
their publics are almost unanimously sectarian. Few leaders
have reacted along the lines of SCIRI's al-Hakim or the Sunni
Endowment head al-Samarraii with conciliatory messages.
Initially, we see no evidence that Shiites or Kurds are
reaching out to Sunnis, nor any evidence of widespread Sunni
acceptance of the court's decision. It is too early to tell
whether the decision will deepen Iraq's sectarian divide. At
this early stage, it is still possible for the decision to
play a role in Shiite/Sunni reconciliation, if used as a
springboard for outreach to Sunnis, such as de-Ba'athifcation
reform. End Comment.
KHALILZAD