COR SPEAKER AND VICE PRESIDENT ADVISER HANNAH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 004124

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS IZ
SUBJECT: COR SPEAKER AND VICE PRESIDENT ADVISER HANNAH
DISCUSS SECURITY SITUATION


Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Robert Gilchrist for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Council of Representatives (CoR) Speaker
Mahmoud al-
Mashadani told John Hannah, the National Security Adviser to
the Vice
President, October 18 that there is a security challenge in
Iraq caused
by Sunni and Shi'a militias. He estimated that there is a
six month
period to overcome the security situation before chaos
erupts. The
Speaker stated that the Ministers of Defense and Interior
should be
strong. He mentioned that, during government formation
negotiations,
he had recommended National Dialogue Front leader Khalaf
Allayan for
MOD and Badr Organization head Hadi al-Amiri for MOI. He
said Allayan
could effectively deal with the Sunnis and eliminate the
terrorist
threat and al-Amiri could deal with the Shi'a and eliminate
the militia
threat. He added that Iraqis are losing faith and trust in
Iraqi
Security Forces (ISF) but they are trusting MNF-I more and
more. He
said both militants and Baathists are changing views and
looking at
neighboring countries (like Iran) as the enemy. Mashadani
stated that
the Baathists are ready to talk with the U.S. They do not
want
control, the Speaker claimed, they just want to be part of
the
government. Mashadani insisted that Iraq must not be
governed by
Islamists (like himself) but by secular parties, of which the
Baath was
the strongest and most capable. END SUMMARY.

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Limited Time Period to Deal with Security Situation
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2. (C) CoR Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashadani told John Hannah, the
National
Security Adviser to the Vice President, October 18 that there
is a
security challenge in Iraq caused by Sunni and Shi'a
militias. He
warned that, if the GOI cannot stop these militias as well as
some of
the extreme Kurds, the entire structure of the state will be
in danger.
The Speaker added that, given Iraq's wealth of resources and
human
capital, it could be a model for the whole region. However,
he
estimated that there is a six month period to overcome the
security
situation and ease the suffering of the people before chaos
erupts. He
said this chaos will spare neither Iraq's neighbors nor
far-away
countries like the U.S. He said the U.S. is responsible for
rebuilding
Iraq politically and putting it on a path to democracy.


3. (C) The Speaker told Mr. Hannah that, if he were the
United Nations
(UN),he would

-- Push the GOI to stop and face ("declare war on") Sunni and
Shi'a
militias.

-- Slow the pace of Arab federalism in Iraq (but not the
Kurdish
region). Mashadani stated that if there are 2-3 Arab regions
in Iraq,
the western region will be under the control of the Takfiris
and the
south under Iranian intelligence. The western region under a
Taliban-
like regime would be a continuous threat to Iraq's neighbors,

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who would
interfere in Iraq's internal affairs, and Iraq would never be
stable.

-- Start and strongly rebuild the country.

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Sunni Arabs in Iraq and the Structure of Security Ministries
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4. (C) Mashadani said Sunni Arabs need to have political
rights equal
to their numbers and need to have security. MNF-I and the
terrorists
fight on their lands, and many Sunni Arabs have been killed
or in
prison, while others have been forced to leave their homes
and flee to
neighbors. He added that militias have infiltrated the
security
organizations, and the sectarian balance is not right. As a
result,
Sunni Arabs feel they are being attacked by militias under
cover of the
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). As Sunni politicians, they
hoped to end
this suffering, but "we can do nothing. The government is
weak." They
are in a real dilemma because of pressure from the Sunni Arab
"street"
to do something.


5. (C) The Speaker said the Ministers of Defense and Interior
should be
strong. He mentioned that, during government formation
negotiations,
he had recommended National Dialogue Front leader Khalaf
Allayan for
MOD and Badr Organization head Hadi al-Amiri for MOI. He
said Allayan
could effectively deal with the Sunnis and eliminate the
terrorist
threat and al-Amiri could deal with the Shi'a and eliminate
the militia
threat. He explained that if you pick a strong Sunni like
Allayan for
MOD and charge him with cleaning Sunni areas, he cannot say
"I can't"
(and the same applies to MOI and Shi'a areas). He added
that, when a
minister is tough on his own sect, there cannot be charges of
sectarianism. As for the Minister of State for National
Security
Affairs, it should be occupied by a secular, professional,
neutral
person who can monitor the security ministries and not allow
them to
turn into militias. In addition, the Sunni Deputy President
would
monitor MOI, and the Shi'a Deputy President would monitor
MOD.


6. (C) Mashadani raised another option of the National
Salvation (or
Martial Law) Government that would be security in nature and
would just
control the security situation. According to the Speaker,
such a
government would be better than the current one. For the
democratic
process to succeed, he stressed the MNF-I must re-occupy
Baghdad. If
Baghdad was under MNF-I control, then MOI and MOD could deal
with other
parties (e.g., terrorists, insurgents). He said Iraqis are
losing
faith and trust in Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) but they are
trusting
MNF-I more and more. He added that many militant groups are
also
changing their views of MNF-I and that this needs to be taken
advantage
of by stopping assassinations and forced displacements.

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Baathists Ready to Talk with U.S.
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7. (C) Another sign of this political change is the
Baathists, who were
one of the worst enemies because of the overthrow of Saddam
Hussein.
They are also changing views and looking at neighboring
countries (like
Iran) as the enemy. Mashadani stated that the Baathists are
ready to
talk with the U.S. They do not want control, the Speaker
claimed, they
just want to be part of the government. Iraq cannot be ruled
by
religious extremists ("like myself") because sectarianism
will always
be there. Iraq needs secular government and it needs secular
political
parties. The U.S. should help secular parties, and the Baath
is the
strongest. Other secular parties are too weak to remove the
religious
extremists. Only the Baath party can, he concluded.


8. (C) Mr. Hannah reaffirmed USG support for the current
government and
for Prime Minister Maliki. Mr. Hannah then asked why the
level of
violence has not decreased since the Sunni Arabs joined the
government.
Mashadani replied that it is not true that the Sunni
political leaders
have one foot in the political process and one foot out. The
Sunni
Arabs only demanded total control of MOD to ensure that they
can
protect the militants if they drop their weapons. He added
that they
cannot ask militants to lay down their arms because they
cannot protect
them afterwards. He added that the militants are afraid to
drop their
weapons. He stated that, since the Sunni Arab politicians do
not ask
the militants to lay down their arms, they are told they have
one foot
in the resistance and one foot in the government. He
described the
Sunni representation, including himself, in government as
weak.


9. (U) This cable was cleared by OVPNSA John Hannah.
KHALILZAD