NINEWA: IIP CHAIR ON ELECTIONS, DISPUTED

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 004017 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM IZ SUBJECT: NINEWA: IIP CHAIR ON ELECTIONS, DISPUTED TERRITORIES, AND IDPS REF: (A) BAGHDAD 02652 (B) BAGHDAD 02869 (C) MOSUL 00042 (D) MOSUL 00060 Classified By: Ninewa PRT Leader James Knight. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a recent meeting with Team Leader Knight and other PRT members, Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) Chair Dr. Mohammad Shakir indicated that they expect legislation to schedule provincial elections will be addressed by the Council of Representatives (COR) shortly after Ramadan. Shakir also indicated that the 'disputed territories' in Ninewa are not disputed except by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) -- instead, tensions exist because Kurds are attempting to control the Arab majority in these areas (Note: In Ninewa these areas include Makhmur, Sinjar, Akre, and Shikhan districts). A potential alliance between the IIP and a Yezidi party was also addressed, indicating the IIP's growing political sophistication as it position itself to lead a broad anti-Kurd coalition. ¶2. (C) Shakir also noted that they have registered over 5,000 internally-displaced families, pointing to Iran and Kurds as instigators of the violence which continues to draw IDPs to Mosul and Ninewa. Shakir further underscored that the current kerosene shortage may cause severe problems owing to Ninewa residents' inability to accumulate stocks for winter household heating. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) On October 18, PRT Team Leader Knight, IPAO Holtsnider, and Rule of Law Deputy LCDR Eckert met Provincial IIP Chair Dr. Mohammed Shakir and Ninewa IIP Public Relations Officer Faris Younis to review current IIP political concerns and the status of IIP's excellent IDP assistance program. -------------- PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS STILL URGENT . . . -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to a Team Leader query on the impact of recent COR federalism legislation, Shakir emphasized that the IIP supports a federal system based on geography rather than ethnicity or religion. In the pursuit of that vision, the IIP still expects provincial elections in early 2007. When asked by the Team Leader what the IIP has heard from its national legislators on elections scheduling, Shakir responded that IIP Representatives expect election legislation to proceed to the floor of the Council of Representatives after Ramadan ends. ¶5. (C) Shakir added said that the Iraqi Constitution must be finalized so 'that people can decide (i.e., vote) on their own behalf'. He reiterated the IIP's consistent position that the Provincial Council should represent the people of Ninewa as a whole (i.e., not just the Kurds who currently dominate the Provincial government and Council). -------------- --- . . . NO TERRITORIES ARE REALLY IN DISPUTE . . . -------------- --- ¶6. (C) Shakir also insisted that the districts in Ninewa considered 'disputed' by the KDP are not in fact in dispute by the majority of their inhabitants. Tension in these areas arises from efforts by Kurdish Peshmerga militias to control Arabs. He rhetorically asked why Coalition forces have not restored pre-2003 demographics in Ninewa. Shakir emphasized 'we are one Iraq' and that the IIP wants inter-ethnic and sectarian tension to end. -------------- . . . AND WE'RE BUILDING A BROAD BASE . . . -------------- ¶7. (C) Pursuing the theme of elections, Shakir observed the disenfranchisement of Ninewa's BAGHDAD 00004017 002 OF 003 minorities, and noted that the IIP may ask Yezidi parties to join its list. (Note: This tracks well with PRT discussions with some Yezidi opinion leaders. In a 17 October 17 PRT meeting with Wa?ad Hamad Matto, Deputy Chair of the Yezidi Movement for Progress and Reform (YMPR),Matto pointed to the a potential YMPR coalition with the IIP. He indicated that YMPR officials have met IIP representatives in both in Mosul and Baghdad on this option. In earlier PRT discussions, Shakir has also noted overtures to the IIP from Christian groups. End note.) -------------- . . . DESPITE SECURITY CONCERNS -------------- ¶8. (C) This meeting followed an unusually severe insurgent attack against FOB Marez 12 October, centered near IIP headquarters (just north of FOB Marez). Reviewing the incident, Shakir identified Iran and Kurd Peshmerga militias as promoters of ongoing violence in Mosul. Shakir emphasized that people destabilizing Mosul were from outside the city. He said that he believed this was the case because the attackers did not appear to know the city -- he related that IIP facility guards had seen trucks arrive and drop off the insurgents who made the attack, but that they appeared to have no knowledge of the geography of the area. ¶9. (C) Shakir speculated that 12 October insurgents incident were brought in from Tal'Afar and Qayarah (south of Mosul near the Erbil provincial boundary), but again emphasized that Iran and the Kurds were behind such attacks. Shakir again regretted that Iraqi Police units are not patrolling at night; he said that this contributed to ongoing violence in Mosul. -------------- KEROSENE SUPPLY STILL CRITICAL -------------- ¶10. (C) When asked by the Team Leader about Mosul's current fuel situation, Shakir insisted that this year?s kerosene shortage will be worse this winter, since households have not been able to procure kerosene for winter stocks during the summer months. However, motor fuel supplies are somewhat better. -------------- IIP-REGISTERED IDPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE -------------- ¶11. (C) In response to LCDR Eckert's queries, Shakir noted that 5,000 internally-displaced families have registered with the IIP in Ninewa as IDPs. Shakir noted that the IIP had opposed construction of an internally-displaced person (IDP) camp in Mosul, preferring to house IDPs in unoccupied dwellings, open commercial space, and in dormitories at Mosul University. He observed that the camp project had become a font of corruption at the Provincial Council, the Ministry of Migration and Displacement, and other organizations involved in construction. ¶12. (C) Shakir pointed out that most IDPs are arriving from the south. While most are Sunni or Christian, some Shi'a have fled persecution by other Shi'a for not joining violence against Sunnis and Christians. Shakir also noted that IDPs have encountered problems because Public Distribution System (PDS) cards issued in other provinces have not been honored in Mosul. He promised to provide LCDR Eckert with names of IDP families that are registered with the IIP. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) This meeting marked an important step forward in the PRT's relationship with the IIP, as Shakir's offer to provide IDP information indicates. While IIP worries about a long delay before provincial elections remain unallayed, their coalition-building and service work reveal a BAGHDAD 00004017 003 OF 003 hearting leap in partisan political capacity and the IIP's deepening commitment to the democratic process. ¶14. (S) COMMENT CONTINUED. The maneuver commander for Ninewa (3-2 SBCT CO) points out that Iraqi police do in fact patrol in Mosul, despite Shakir's complaints to the contrary. Patrolling did decrease somewhat during Ramadan. In addition, interrogation reports indicate perpetrators of the 12 Oct attack were in fact primarily from Qayarah, Nimrud, Salamiyah, and Bayji, but there is no indication of direct involvement by Iran or the KRG. END COMMENT. KHALILZAD