SHIA INDEPENDENT: WHO WILL DEFEND IRAQ WHEN U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000396

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2016
TAGS: PBTS PGOV PINS PREL IZ IR
SUBJECT: SHIA INDEPENDENT: WHO WILL DEFEND IRAQ WHEN U.S.
LEAVES?


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555) independent
parliamentarian Sami al-Askari asked PolOff in a February
6 meeting, "Who will defend Iraq after coalition forces
(CF) leave?" Al-Askari said he is concerned that the
U.S. will withdraw its forces soon because of its
domestic political situation. This is despite the fact
that most Iraqis privately say they want CF to stay in
Iraq until peace is restored. Iraqis, however, do not
want permanent U.S. bases in Iraq, he said.


2. (C) PolOff replied that CF is currently training Iraqi
Security Forces (ISF) to defend Iraq. Al-Askari
countered that Iraq cannot afford a large army. Iranian
gunboats have already killed Iraqis, so it is conceivable
that fighting could break out between Iran and Iraq in
the future. Al-Askari proposed a defensive alliance
between the U.S., the U.K. and Iraq to deter Iraq's
enemies from attacking.


3. (C) Comment: Al-Askari's comments are not entirely
representative of the majority of the population from
southern Iraq (he is from Nasiriyah). Polling data we
have seen suggests confidence in the Iraqi Army in the
South is relatively high. Al-Askeri, however, is
certainly more educated than the average man on the
street. In addition, he is more informed about Iraq's
relations with Iran. The funeral for the Iraqi coast
guardsman killed by the Iranians got a fair amount of
publicity in the Iraqi media. not only highlight the
real concern for security that many Iraqis have, but
public opinion polls also suggest that many Iraqis are
nervous about the capabilities of the ISF. End
Comment.


KHALILZAD