SHIA INDEPENDENT: WHO WILL DEFEND IRAQ WHEN U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000396 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2016 TAGS: PBTS PGOV PINS PREL IZ IR SUBJECT: SHIA INDEPENDENT: WHO WILL DEFEND IRAQ WHEN U.S. LEAVES? Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555) independent parliamentarian Sami al-Askari asked PolOff in a February 6 meeting, "Who will defend Iraq after coalition forces (CF) leave?" Al-Askari said he is concerned that the U.S. will withdraw its forces soon because of its domestic political situation. This is despite the fact that most Iraqis privately say they want CF to stay in Iraq until peace is restored. Iraqis, however, do not want permanent U.S. bases in Iraq, he said. ¶2. (C) PolOff replied that CF is currently training Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to defend Iraq. Al-Askari countered that Iraq cannot afford a large army. Iranian gunboats have already killed Iraqis, so it is conceivable that fighting could break out between Iran and Iraq in the future. Al-Askari proposed a defensive alliance between the U.S., the U.K. and Iraq to deter Iraq's enemies from attacking. ¶3. (C) Comment: Al-Askari's comments are not entirely representative of the majority of the population from southern Iraq (he is from Nasiriyah). Polling data we have seen suggests confidence in the Iraqi Army in the South is relatively high. Al-Askeri, however, is certainly more educated than the average man on the street. In addition, he is more informed about Iraq's relations with Iran. The funeral for the Iraqi coast guardsman killed by the Iranians got a fair amount of publicity in the Iraqi media. not only highlight the real concern for security that many Iraqis have, but public opinion polls also suggest that many Iraqis are nervous about the capabilities of the ISF. End Comment. KHALILZAD