SISTANI STAYS SILENT BUT REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003574

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: SISTANI STAYS SILENT BUT REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ON
REGIONS LAW

REF: BAGHDAD 03512

Classified By: Political Counselor Margaret Scobey for resons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d)


1. (SBU) As debate over federalism dominates political
conversations throughout Iraq, Shia politicians frequently
claim that Ayatollah SISTANI supports their point of view,
even though SISTANI has not issued a public statement on the
issue. Moqtada al Sadr reportedly has made his support for a
law on region formation, in part at least, contingent upon a
public endorsement from Grand Ayatollah SISTANI. Most agree
that SISTANI does not want any action that threatens the
unity of Iraq.


2. (SBU) Press accounts paint a fairly consistent picture of
SISTANI's opinion of federalism:

--The Iraqi newspaper Al-Bayyna Al-Jadidah, a pro-Shi'a
paper, printed an article on September 17 claiming Najaf
governor Adnan Al-Razouki had spoken with al-SISTANI and
other Shi'a religious leaders in Najaf.
According to Al-Razouki, SISTANI stated that he would refuse
all types of federalism that created the possibility of a
divided Iraq, even if federalism eventually proved beneficial
to Iraq.

-- The same newspaper also reported that Abdulaziz Al-Hakim,
leader of the United Iraqi Coalition (UIC) and a leading
proponent of moving forward with a regions law, visited
SISTANI in an effort to gain his support for federalism.
According to the paper, SISTANI reiterated that he could not
support anything that divides Iraq and that there were
several more pressing issues, including national
reconciliation and disarming the militias.


3. (C) Shia political leaders have sought to bolster their
positions by claiming SISTANI's views supported their
proposal.

-- For example, SCIRI leader Humam Hammudi claimed in an
August 17 meeting with Polcouns that SISTANI would accept a
single Shia region (the nine province model) or no Shia
regions, but that he would reject multiple Shia regions
because they would provoke division among the Shia.

-- Khalid Al-Attiya, the CoR Deputy Speaker, reported
September 18 that during the meeting of religious leaders in
Najaf, he heard SISTANI give support to "the principle of
federalism" but added that "this was not the right time"
(reftel).

--In a September 9 meeting, Shia independent CoR member
Qassem Daoud -- who says that he has tried to gain support
for a regions formation law that delays implementation by
several years and that limits the size of a region to no more
than three governorates -- said that SISTANI has said nothing
on federalism (COMMENT: SISTANI has not stated anything that
would support Daoud's approach. END COMMENT).
SPECKHARD