AL-ATTIYA AND SCIRI REPRESENTATIVE DESCRIBE UIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003512

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: AL-ATTIYA AND SCIRI REPRESENTATIVE DESCRIBE UIC
DETERMINATION ON REGIONS LAW

REF: BAGHDAD 3405

Classified By: Political Counselor Margaret Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: CoR Deputy Speaker Khalid Al-Attiya and
SCIRI MP Ridha Jawad Taqi told PolCouns in separate meetings
on September 18 that UIC (with the exception of the Sadrists)
was determined to have the first reading of the region
formation law on September 19. (Note: It did not take
place; see septel. End note.) They described UIC as
flexible as to the exact provisions of law but emphasized the
need to respect the constitution and proceed with getting a
law on the books. Both Al-Attiya and Taqi acknowledged that
it was important the process not be overly divisive and noted
that UIC was willing to have the constitutional review
committee formed this week, so that the review process and
the regions legislation worked through CoR concurrently.
Separately, MP Hassan Al-Shammari, a Fadhila leader, told
PolFSN that Fadhila did not support a first reading of the
region formation law on September 19, further calling into
question the extent of UIC cohesion on the federalism issue.
End summary.

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Guaranteeing the Transfer to Federalism
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2. (C) Al-Attiya and Taqi both emphasized that UIC's
priority was to get a law on regions on the books in the time
frame specified by Article 118 of the constitution (i.e., by
October 22). Al Attiya said that he personally, and the UIC
in general, were open as to the exact content of the law, for
example with respect to size of regions and timing of
implementation. "Federalism can happen when the situation is
ready," he said, "when local administrative capabilities are
developed and the people are behind it." The underlying
motivation for UIC's support for federalism, Al-Attiya
repeated throughout the conversation, was to guarantee that
there will be "no more dictatorship, no more military coups."
Taqi said that SCIRI was flexible on the exact provisions of
the law, describing the passing of a regions law as "a
passport to federalism, but one that we don't need to use for
three, four, or five years." When asked whether most recent
revision of the draft law had been changed from the UIC's
original draft (reftel) to reflect this flexibility, however,
both Al-Attiya and Taqi confirmed that there had been no
substantial changes.

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Why the Rush?
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3. (C) Noting that federalism was a potentially divisive
issue from the Sunni point of view, PolCouns urged both
Al-Attiya and Taqi that it was important to move forward in a
way that supported Iraq's unity and asked why it was
essential that the first reading take place on September 19,
more than one month before the constitutional deadline.
Acknowledging the need to support Iraq's unity, Al-Attiya
said that the UIC was determined to have a first reading on
September 19 but that, in his personal opinion, the rest of
the legislative process could be delayed as long as the
constitution was respected. Taqi argued that "the Sunnis
would like us to delay now, to delay again, and then to delay
again," but he seemed open to exploring the possibility of
delaying the first reading until Vice President Tarek
Al-Hashemi and President Jalal Talabani returned to Iraq, in
the interests of avoiding a divisive showdown with Tawafuq.

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The Carrot of Constitutional Review
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4. (C) Al-Attiya volunteered, and Taqi confirmed, that the
UIC was willing have the constitutional review process go
forward concurrently with movement on the regions law. "We
are ready to name a constitutional review committee this
week," Al-Attiya continued. He cautioned that federalism
itself as enshrined in Article 1 was not up for review,
basing his interpretation on Article 126 of the constitution,
which mandates a grace period of two electoral terms before
certain sections of the constitution can be amended. (Note:
Article 142, which provides for the review, explicitly
suspends Article 126 during the review process. PolCouns
pointed out this provision to Al-Attiya but decided not to
pursue the matter further. End note.) Al-Attiya also
cautioned that it would be very hard to make a deal with
Sunnis on the issue of federalism. "The Baathists and

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extremists are the most powerful voices among Sunni
politicians now," he said; "They are trying to equate
federalism with dividing Iraq. They cannot accept the new
system."

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How United is the UIC?
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5. (C) In describing UIC's position, both Al-Attiya and Taqi
made reference to a September 17 meeting of UIC leaders.
Taqi said that during the meeting "five of the seven" UIC
constituents supported the plan to move forward with the
legislative process on the regions law, the exceptions being
Fadhila and the Sadrists. He said that Fadhila had been
"holding out" and subsequently came around to the majority
viewpoint, and Al-Attiya also claimed that Fadhila would
support the majority UIC viewpoint in the CoR on September

19. However Hassan Al-Shammari, a Fadhila leader, later told
PolFSN that Fadhila did not support reading the current
version of the law on September 19; would not attend a
meeting of CoR bloc leaders on the afternoon of September 18
to discuss proceeding with the law; and indeed had submitted
an alternative version to the Speaker.

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Secondhand Reports on Al-Hakim and Sistani
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6. (C) Taqi declared that Abd al-Aziz Al-Hakim's position on
federalism had recently moderated, in that he was no longer
insisting on a nine-province region and that he agreed that
regions should not be formed until the environment was right.
Vice President Adil Abd al-Mehdi had a long conversation
with Al-Hakim after his return from the U.S., Taqi claimed,
which lead Al-Hakim to moderate his views. In response to a
question from PolCouns about his recent trip to Najaf,
Al-Attiya said that Ayatollah Sistani had expressed his
"support for the principle of federalism" but also had stated
that "this was not the right time."

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Comment
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7. (C) The first reading of the regions formation law did
not occur during the September 19 CoR session (septel).
Given the objections of Tawafuq (septel),the Sadrists, and
potentially Fadhila, it is possible that the UIC majority,
even if supported by the Kurds, would not be able to muster a
quorum for a CoR session with the region formation law on the
agenda. Some UIC leaders seem determined to begin the
legislative process, but open to compromise on the nature of
the region formation law. However, the SCIRI draft has not
been changed: there is no limit placed on the number of
governorates in a region, nor does the draft contain any new
language on delaying implementation or to incorporate Sunni
concerns. End comment.
SPECKHARD