FALLUJAH - DISPLACED SUNNI ARABS RELOCATE TO AL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003471

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: FALLUJAH - DISPLACED SUNNI ARABS RELOCATE TO AL
ANBAR'S GATED COMMUNITY

Classified By: Political Counselor Margaret Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (U) This is a PRT Al Anbar cable.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Sectarian violence has prompted thousands
of Sunni-Arabs to relocate to Al Anbar Province. Many have
moved to Fallujah given its proximity to Baghdad and lack
of Shia militia activity. Fallujah city leaders have taken
steps to address the influx. Displaced Sunni-Arabs,
especially from Baghdad's mixed neighborhoods, have
questioned the Iraqi government's will and coalition's
resources to stabilize security in the capital. They want
to return to their homes and businesses but fear Shia death
squads and ongoing sectarian retribution in Baghdad's most
volatile neighborhoods. Notably, IDP numbers in the
Fallujah area have recently stabilized. END SUMMARY.

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SUNNI-ARABS EXIT BAGHDAD FOR ANBAR AND FALLUJAH
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3. (C) Beginning in July, Fallujah city leaders flagged to
Al Anbar PolOff and Marines the influx of IDPs into the
Fallujah area. They said that none would be turned away -
and urged the U.S. to direct efforts toward stabilizing
Baghdad in order to address the underlying cause of the
exodus, rampant sectarianism. Fallujah's city council
chairman estimated in July the number of displaced Sunni-
Arab families to be in the "thousands." He said all would
be admitted into the city, provided they had a resident
sponsor and local police approval. NOTE: an IDP camp
established in the city post-February 2006 Samarra bombing
did not contain newly displaced Sunni-Arabs; instead almost
all have been absorbed into existing family members'
homes. END NOTE. The International Organization for
Migration, which tracks IDP movements, estimates that there
are 5,079 families displaced, totaling 30,474 individuals,
in Anbar province. Some NGO officials put the displaced
figure at 7,000 families. Fallujah leaders said September
12 that some 2,500 families have entered Fallujah proper.


4. (C) Al Anbar Poloff spent several days in July and
August at a Fallujah-area facility used to process badges
for city residents and IDPs. Approximately 50 percent of
the assembled Iraqis claimed to be displaced, with a
majority from Baghdad alongside others from Basra and a
smaller proportion from Ramadi. This percentage held
steady across several weeks, according to Marines stationed
full-time at the site. Recently, however, the IDP number
has stabilized, likely following increased U.S. troop
presence in Baghdad.

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IDPS DESCRIBE THREATS; SEEK MORE ACTIVE COALITION ROLE
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5. (C) Several Sunni-Arab IDPs told PolOff that militia
activity had reached a high point in July, with the Al-
Jihad neighborhood attacks in Baghdad. One remarked, "the
23 Sunni families that lived on our street have all left
now." An older man added, "We fled Shuala, another sixty
families left as well. They checked ID cards, then fliers
appeared on our doors. We do not know who are good police
or army and which are bad." A displaced resident from
Basrah told PolOff that he and his family had lived in
southern Iraq their entire lives, but had recently fled:
"They killed some of our neighbors and left three bodies on
the street. We got the notice on the door. Three-quarters
of Sunnis have left Basrah, to Mosul or Fallujah."


6. (C) The IDPs congregated outside Fallujah echoed common
themes in many private discussions with PolOff: distrust
of ISF in the capital, especially MOI-controlled police
units; Shia militia targeting based on identification cards
and fliers; and concern about U.S. willingness to intervene
in the sectarian fighting. As a group, they comprised
"hold-outs" - Sunni Arabs who had stayed in volatile areas
for many months. July's al-Jihad neighborhood attacks in
Baghdad seemed to be especially unsettling, given the
widespread perception that local police had either just
watched the attacks or participated in them. Video footage
contained on Fallujah mobile phones has been shown to
PolOff, which residents claim depicts the graphic beating
death of a Sunni imam in Baghdad. Both city leaders and
IDPs have said that Fallujah is now considered the safest
place in Iraq for Sunni Arabs, given its dominant Sunni
population, no militia activity, and 24-hour manned city
checkpoints.

BAGHDAD 00003471 002 OF 002




7. (C) COMMENT: The recent increase of coalition troop
levels in Baghdad and revised GOI security plan appear to
have stemmed the outflow of Sunni-Arab IDPs into Al Anbar.
Still, the estimated number of families that relocated due
to sectarianism remains in the thousands. Anbaris, for
now, appear willing to absorb them into relatives'
households. Of note, attack levels against Marines in
Fallujah have recently spiked, which could reflect in part
the influx of displaced Sunni Arabs into the area.


8. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Al Anbar leaders seek a long-
term commitment from Iraqi officials to reverse sectarian
infiltration within the ISF. They also support continued
visible coalition efforts to mitigate Baghdad violence.
Should these steps be successful more long term, IDPs can
be expected to leave the province's gated community and
return home. Presently, however, most seem inclined to
wait and see from Al Anbar Province whether their capital
once again becomes neutral territory, especially in
Baghdad's familiar mixed neighborhoods.

SPECKHARD