C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000330

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PNAT IZ KDEM
SUBJECT: ABD AL-MAHDI CLAIMS HE IS HIS OWN MAN


Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: At a February 3 dinner hosted by Minister of
Planning (and senior Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)
official) Barham Saleh, Deputy President Adel Abd al-Mahdi
told the Ambassador that, if chosen to be Prime Minister, he
would not be beholden either to SCIRI head Abd al-Aziz
al-Hakim or Iran. Abd al-Mahdi explained that, although Iraq
needs good relations with its neighbors, concerns about
growing Iranian influence are the result of propaganda
designed to smear SCIRI. Iraq must work with the U.S., he
noted. Abd al-Mahdi also said that he has accepted the
Ambassador's idea of a national unity government consisting
of Shia, Kurds, Sunni Arabs, and secular Iraqis from the bloc
led by former PM Ayad Allawi. Abd al-Mahdi said he also is
in favor of dividing government ministries into three
baskets: security, economics, and services, each to be
headed by a Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) or a special
assistant to the PM. When the Ambassador pushed for the
adoption of a program that would unite the next Iraqi
government, Abd al-Mahdi agreed. END SUMMARY.

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Questions Regarding Abd al-Mahdi's Independence
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2. (C) At a February 3 dinner hosted by Minister of Planning
Barham Saleh, Abd al-Mahdi asked the Ambassador to help
convince Fadhila Party General Secretary Nadeem al-Jabiri to
drop out of the race for PM. Abd al-Mahdi said that Shia
independent Hussein Shahristani already has decided to drop
out of the race and that Shahristani's supporters would throw
their weight behind Abd al-Mahdi. With the Fadhila Party's
support, Abd al-Mahdi said, he would almost certainly become
PM.


3. (C) The Ambassador replied that there are concerns about a
possible Abd al-Mahdi premiership. Ambassador said that
there is a perception that, if Abd al-Mahdi were to become
PM, SCIRI head Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim really would be the one

running Iraq, and Iranian influence in Iraq would increase.
The Ambassador asked Abd al-Mahdi what kind of assurances he
could offer that this would not occur.


4. (C) Abd al-Mahdi countered strongly, arguing that his
relationship with Hakim was such that he could be frank with
Hakim. Abd al-Mahdi said he sometimes has disagreed publicly
with Hakim during Governing Council meetings. Furthermore,
Abd al-Mahdi claimed, concerns about Iranian influence in
Iraq are the result of propaganda designed to smear SCIRI.
Abd al-Mahdi argued that Iraq needs good relations with its
neighbors, but must work with the U.S. as well. For example,
a possible U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would not be in the
interests of either Iraq or Iran. Abd al-Mahdi also said
that, if it were true that Iran is arming and supporting
terrorists, he would confront the Iranian government.

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The Shape of the Next Government
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5. (C) Abd al-Mahdi said he has accepted the Ambassador's
idea of having the various government ministries divided up
into three baskets: security, economics, and services, each
to be headed by a DPM or special representative of the PM.
Abd al-Mahdi said, however, that he doubts the Kurds would
accept this. Abd al-Mahdi recommended that Barham Saleh
should be a DPM, and he agreed with the Ambassador's idea
that Iraq should have a National Security Council -- but
argued that it should be an advisory rather than a
decision-making body (reftel).


6. (C) Abd al-Mahdi told the Ambassador that he supports the
Ambassador's plan to form a national unity government
comprising Shia, Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and secular Iraqis led
by former PM Ayad Allawi. The UIC 555 coalition, Abd
al-Mahdi said, also would accept Allawi's participation in a
national unity government. When the Ambassador suggested
that Allawi might be appointed DPM in charge of security, Abd
al-Mahdi balked. Although he personally would not object,
Abd al-Mahdi said he did not believe the rest of the UIC 555
coalition would accept this. Instead, Abd al-Mahdi suggested
that Allawi could be Minister of Defense (MOD). Abd al-Mahdi
said that Grand Ayatollah SISTANI does not object to Allawi's
participation in the government, despite the former PM's
Ba'athist roots.


7. (C) Barham Saleh added that the Iranian Ambassador had met
with TNA speaker Hajim al-Hassani and told him that Iran
would not object to Allawi's participation in the next GOI.
Abd al-Mahdi argued, however, that if Allawi becomes MOD,

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then the Minister of Interior (MOI) should be someone who has
the support of the UIC 555 coalition. Qassim Daoud would
make an excellent MOI, Abd al-Mahdi said. He asked the
Ambassador to discuss this with Qassim.


8. (C) The Ambassador said that the Embassy is working on a
program of action for the unity government. Abd al-Mahdi
agreed that this would be a good idea and suggested that the
Ambassador pass the proposals to Saleh, who could then build
upon them.

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Comment
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9. (C) COMMENT: How a possible PM Abd al-Mahdi would be
perceived by Sunni Arabs, Kurds, or secular Iraqis remains an
issue. Questions remain about his independence from Hakim
and his willingness to stand up to Iran. Thus far, however,
Abd al-Mahdi has said the right things. He appeared to the
Ambassador to be sincere when he said Iraq needed to
cooperate with the U.S.


10. (C) COMMENT CONT'D: Allawi's apparent willingness to
accept some other job in the government besides PM should be
viewed as a positive development. At a lunch hosted by PM
Ja'fari on February 3, Allawi told the Ambassador that he had
met with Hakim the previous day. Allawi described the
meeting as very positive. Allawi said that he has had a
long-standing relationship with the Hakim family, and he
recounted to the Ambassador how he used to travel from his
home in Baghdad to visit the holy shrines in Najaf. While in
Najaf, his family would visit the Hakim family home and young
Ayad would kiss the hand of Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim's father,
the late Grand Ayatollah Mohsin al-Hakim. It remains to be
seen if this long-standing relationship can help foster an
effective, cross-sectarian government. END COMMENT.
KHALILZAD