NINEWA: IRAQI ISLAMIC PARTY (IIP) CALLS FOR EARLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002869 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF MARR ECON IZ SUBJECT: NINEWA: IRAQI ISLAMIC PARTY (IIP) CALLS FOR EARLY PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS AND LOCALLY RECRUITED MILITARY UNITS REF: (A) BAGHDAD 02652 (B) MOSUL 00042 Classified By: Ninewa PRT Team Leader James Knight: Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) leadership in Ninewa believes restoration of security is the most important task in Ninewa, and early elections (to replace the current Kurd-dominated Ninewa Provincial Government) would be the best first step to improve security. Only a fully representative government with an appropriate number of council members from each community can restore confidence, establish security, and improve the economy. ¶2. (C) IIP leaders assert that existing Iraqi Army (IA) units in Ninewa cannot assure security since they are predominately former Kurd militia and are not trusted. IIP believes these units must be replaced by soldiers native to Ninewa. They also worry that efforts to extend Kurd hegemony into Ninewa may lead to violence. The IIP also reports that the influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Basra and Baghdad has been reduced as security has improved in their home areas, and that some IDPs have returned to their former homes in the last few weeks. End Summary. ¶3. (SBU) PRT Team Leader Knight, Deputy Team Leader COL Grant, and IPAO Pope met IIP Director Dr. Mohammed Shakir, Deputy Director Younis Hashim, and senior IIP members Faris Younis, Hasan Al Allaf, Mumtaz Al Aaraji, Isam al Hafudh and Sheikh Hikmat Salman for a working lunch at Mosul IIP offices 1 August. -------------- EARLY ELECTIONS KEY TO SECURITY -------------- ¶4. (C) PRT Team Leader Knight opened discussion with a general query regarding IIP priorities for Ninewa. Shakir responded by lamenting the globally poor state of affairs. No basic services function effectively, and a 'culture of killing' has taken hold. He asserted that the most important step forward is elections as soon as possible. New elections will establish a fully representative provincial government (i.e., with an appropriate number of Sunni council members). He acknowledged recognized the IIPs mistake in not participating in the January 2005 provincial elections, but insisted that the IIP now understood that participation in the electoral process is necessary to end sectarian conflict. He emphasized that the IIP has already begun to plan for Ninewa if, as they expect, their party achieves a majority on the Provincial Council (PC) in the next election. ¶5. (C) The IIP is particularly interested in improving agriculture, and want to see long-planned irrigation projects completed so that farmers can increase production. They plan a broad pluralistic administration which will work with other parties, coalition forces (CF),the PRT, and other relevant organizations to achieve security and economic growth. Shakir stressed that the IIP is a civil -- not religious -- party that supports democracy, the rule of law, and minority rights, and welcomes members from all ethnic groups. Once security had been achieved and economic development is underway, work can begin on improvement of services and infrastructure. -------------- IRAQI FORCES IN NINEWA SHOULD BE FROM NINEWA -------------- ¶6. (C) Elaborating on the security problem, Shakir pointed out that the Second and Third Divisions of the Iraqi Army now posted in Ninewa are composed of former Kurd Peshmerga militia members. While the IIP is appreciative of the security these forces provided immediately after the fall of the previous BAGHDAD 00002869 002 OF 003 regime, it is time for them to leave. Long term security of the province must be assured by locals if ethnic and religious tensions are to be reduced. ¶7. (C) Shakir recommended a locally-recruited division be established promptly so that Kurd troops of IA units now in Ninewa can be withdrawn. He noted that he did not wish replacement of the Kurd troops by Iraqi army soldiers or police from Baghdad, and again stressed the need to stand up IA units here with Ninewa recruits. He is also concerned that Coalition Forces withdrawal from Ninewa before local troops assume control is likely to lead to increased violence. -------------- KURD ASSERTIVENESS FEEDS TENSION -------------- ¶8. (C) In response to PRT Team Leader Knight's question regarding the relationship of Ninewa to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG),Shakir and other IIP members observed that resentment of Kurds continues to rise among Ninewa's Arabs and Christians. Kurds are believed to be seeking annexation of large parts of Ninewa by the KRG and to 'Kurdify' traditionally Arab areas. Arabs are rudely treated by Kurds manning IA checkpoints in the province and are berated for not speaking Kurdish. ¶9. Shakir and his colleagues reported that Kurdish flags are flown openly in Arab towns, and intimidation was used by Kurds to influence voting in previous elections. Younis Hashim pointed to pressure exerted by Kurds on the Sinjar District Council to elicit a Council vote to join the KRG. Shakir regretted that anger arising from such incidents has at times been directed against innocent Kurds, and some have been displaced as a result. Shakir and the IIP are afraid that continued pressure by Kurds may lead to a violent Arab reaction. Shakir asked for USG efforts to discourage Kurd encroachment in Ninewa. ¶10. (C) As an example of the mistreatment of Arabs by Kurd soldiers, Mumtaz Al Aaraji, a member of the Ninewa's Provincial Council, related his recent experience trying to travel from Mosul to Dahuk to attend a regional conference of provincial council members. He was stopped at a checkpoint north of Mosul, and then addressed by guards entirely in Kurdish. The guards became verbally and physically abusive when Mumtaz responded in Arabic. Mumtaz explained that he was a Council member on official business, but the guard insisted on an intrusive search of his car. Mumtaz was told that his weapon and those of his security detail would have to be relinquished for him to proceed. When he refused to yield the weapons he was forbidden to enter Dahuk province, and accordingly returned to Mosul. Mumtaz affirmed that Ninewa Arabs are routinely subjected to such treatment. -------------- IDP INFLUX SLOWS -------------- ¶11. (C) In response to a Team Leader question regarding IDPs in Ninewa, Shakir reported that over 2000 displaced families fleeing violence in Basra and Baghdad had registered with the IIP in Mosul over the past several months (Note: an estimated 12,000 individuals. End note.) The IIP has coordinated provincial government and private support for these families, but Shakir also noted that the flow of refugees has slowed recently as security in Basra and Baghdad has improved. Several families have already left Mosul to return to their homes in Basra. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) The IIP is expected to win a majority on the Ninewa Provincial Council at the next provincial elections. Shakir is likely to become the province's next Governor. Shakir and his advisors BAGHDAD 00002869 003 OF 003 were at pains to assure his PRT guests that the IIP is a democratic, tolerant party eager to work with coalition forces and Iraqi national and local partners. End comment. KHALILZAD