IRAQI REACTION TO SISTANI'S SECOND LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002749 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KDEM KISL IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI REACTION TO SISTANI'S SECOND LEBANON STATEMENT REF: (A) OPEN SOURCE CENTER DOCUMENT GMP 20060731632001 (B) OPEN SOURCE CENTER DOCUMENT GMP 20060717648004 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARGARET SCOBEY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. On July 31, Ayatollah Al-Sayyid al-Sistani issued a strongly worded statement condemning Israeli actions in Lebanon following reports of heavy civilian casualties in Qana. The statement was widely and uncritically reported by local news media. Some Shia observers said that Sistani is warning of an anti-US backlash in Iraq if the Lebanon crisis continues. End summary. ¶2. (U) On July 31, Ayatollah Al-Sayyid al-Sistani issued a statement on his website (www.sistani.org) deploring "a new massacre" at the Lebanese town of Qana. He said the "ongoing Israeli agression" has reached a level "that can not bear more patience," and called on the international community to impose an immediate ceasefire "putting an end to this horrenduos crime." (Ref A). ¶3. (U) The July 31 statement is Sistani's second recent statement on the Lebanon crisis. In his first statement, issued on July 16, Sistani urged the international community to &stop the ongoing flagrant aggression8 by Israel against Lebanon (Ref B). In his July 16 statement, Sistani charged that the world has turned a &blind eye8 to the suffering of the Lebanese people. ¶4. (C) Sistani's newest statement is stronger in tone than his first. In the latest statement, Sistani refers to "the Israeli enemy" ) a phrase that did not appear in the first statement. He ends with what some consider a warning that that the Muslim world "will not forgive the parties that impede putting an end to the crisis, which will result in grave consequences in the whole region." -------------- MEDIA REACTION -------------- ¶5. (U) Sistani's statement was reported widely on Arabic television and radio newscasts, including on the Al-Arabiya and Al-Fourat television networks, as well as on Radio Republic of Iraq and Radio Free Iraq. As is typical with media coverage of Sistani statements, the coverage was factual rather than critical. Sistani's status in Iraq is such that his statements are virtually immune from open criticism or debate in the news media. -------------- REACTION FROM IRAQI CONTACTS -------------- ¶6. (C) Mohammed al-Khazali, a Council of Representatives member from the Fadhila party, told poloff that Sistani's statement went beyond mere condemnation. He said that Sistani was warning the USG of a potential reaction against the USG in Iraq if the Israelis continued attacking Lebanon. Khazali said that it is clear to him that the USG is pro-Israel in this conflict. Khazali speculated that Sistani may be under some pressure to condemn Israel due to widespread Iraqi sympathy for Hezbollah. Khazali also mentioned that Moqtada al-Sadr had strongly criticized Israel; Khazali said that Sistani may have felt compelled to make a comparable statement. ¶7. (C) Sayyd Emad Kelanter, a cleric from Najaf who is related to both Sistani and Sadr, told poloff that Sistani usually avoids direct involvement in political controversies. Nevertheless, Kelanter said, Sistani could not remain silent regarding the Qana attack. In Kelanter's view, Sistani had to say something about the Qana incident because of his status as the preeminent Grand Ayatollah to the Shia community. Kelanter added that Sistani wanted the world to know that Iraqis can be influenced by regional events, and that even Sistani might not be able to control such a reaction. ¶8. (C) Comment. Sistani's increasingly strident tone likely represents both personal concern and pressure to reflect the strongly-felt views of Iraqi Shia as scenes from Lebanon continue to dominate news coverage this week. End comment. SCOBEY