C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002749

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KDEM KISL IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI REACTION TO SISTANI'S SECOND LEBANON
STATEMENT

REF: (A) OPEN SOURCE CENTER DOCUMENT GMP
20060731632001 (B) OPEN SOURCE CENTER
DOCUMENT GMP 20060717648004

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARGARET SCOBEY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. On July 31, Ayatollah Al-Sayyid al-Sistani
issued a strongly worded statement condemning Israeli actions
in Lebanon following reports of heavy civilian casualties in
Qana. The statement was widely and uncritically reported by
local news media. Some Shia observers said that Sistani is
warning of an anti-US backlash in Iraq if the Lebanon crisis
continues. End summary.


2. (U) On July 31, Ayatollah Al-Sayyid al-Sistani issued a
statement on his website (www.sistani.org) deploring "a new
massacre" at the Lebanese town of Qana. He said the "ongoing
Israeli agression" has reached a level "that can not bear
more patience," and called on the international community to
impose an immediate ceasefire "putting an end to this
horrenduos crime." (Ref A).


3. (U) The July 31 statement is Sistani's second recent
statement on the Lebanon crisis. In his first statement,
issued on July 16, Sistani urged the international community
to &stop the ongoing flagrant aggression8 by Israel against
Lebanon (Ref B). In his July 16 statement, Sistani charged
that the world has turned a &blind eye8 to the suffering of
the Lebanese people.


4. (C) Sistani's newest statement is stronger in tone than
his first. In the latest statement, Sistani refers to "the
Israeli enemy" ) a phrase that did not appear in the first
statement. He ends with what some consider a warning that
that the Muslim world "will not forgive the parties that
impede putting an end to the crisis, which will result in
grave consequences in the whole region."

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MEDIA REACTION
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5. (U) Sistani's statement was reported widely on Arabic
television and radio newscasts, including on the Al-Arabiya
and Al-Fourat television networks, as well as on Radio
Republic of Iraq and Radio Free Iraq. As is typical with
media coverage of Sistani statements, the coverage was
factual rather than critical. Sistani's status in Iraq is
such that his statements are virtually immune from open
criticism or debate in the news media.

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REACTION FROM IRAQI CONTACTS
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6. (C) Mohammed al-Khazali, a Council of Representatives
member from the Fadhila party, told poloff that Sistani's
statement went beyond mere condemnation. He said that
Sistani was warning the USG of a potential reaction against
the USG in Iraq if the Israelis continued attacking Lebanon.
Khazali said that it is clear to him that the USG is
pro-Israel in this conflict. Khazali speculated that Sistani
may be under some pressure to condemn Israel due to
widespread Iraqi sympathy for Hezbollah. Khazali also
mentioned that Moqtada al-Sadr had strongly criticized
Israel; Khazali said that Sistani may have felt compelled to
make a comparable statement.


7. (C) Sayyd Emad Kelanter, a cleric from Najaf who is
related to both Sistani and Sadr, told poloff that Sistani
usually avoids direct involvement in political controversies.
Nevertheless, Kelanter said, Sistani could not remain silent
regarding the Qana attack. In Kelanter's view, Sistani had
to say something about the Qana incident because of his
status as the preeminent Grand Ayatollah to the Shia
community. Kelanter added that Sistani wanted the world to
know that Iraqis can be influenced by regional events, and
that even Sistani might not be able to control such a
reaction.


8. (C) Comment. Sistani's increasingly strident tone likely
represents both personal concern and pressure to reflect the
strongly-felt views of Iraqi Shia as scenes from Lebanon
continue to dominate news coverage this week. End comment.
SCOBEY