NINAWA: PROVINCIAL IIP DIRECTOR MULLS RUN FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002652 SIPDIS SIPDIS BAGHDAD FOR POL, NCT, IRMO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS PINR PGOV PHUM MARR ECON IZ SUBJECT: NINAWA: PROVINCIAL IIP DIRECTOR MULLS RUN FOR GOVERNOR Classified By: PRT IPAO Jerome Hohman, Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d) This is a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Ninawa cable, MOSUL 60, transmitted from BAGHDAD as Mosul no longer has record traffic capability. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Ninawa,s Sunni Arab population comprises a majority of the province,s population, but is a distinct minority in the provincial government. Provincial Islamic Party Director Dr. Mohammed Shakir wants to change that by possibly running at the top of his party,s ticket in upcoming provincial elections. Shakir believes new leadership is needed since the prior provincial government is ¬ truly representative8 of the people because it is run by the minority Kurds. If elected, the IIP plans to concentrate on two areas: security and the economy. According to Shakir, security can only be improved by moving Coalition Forces and the Iraqi Army out of Mosul and ceding control to the Iraqi Police. Economic improvement will be possible once security has been established and job creation will be the IIP,s priority. Shakir hopes a secure society based on the rule of law will eventually allow Iraq to develop a pluralistic government that will serve the best interests of all Iraqis. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PRT Deputy Leader and IPAO's met with Dr. Mohammed Shakir, provincial director of the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP), and assistant Faris Younis at IIP headquarters in Mosul on July 17. -------------- POTENTIAL RUN AS GOVERNOR -------------- ¶3. (C) Dr. Mohammed Shakir told PRT officials he was seriously considering running for governor during provincial elections slated for later this year or early next. He said he wanted to build consensus among the province,s diverse population to provide security and economic stability. The governorship, of course, would only be his by the wishes of the party leadership and its coalition partners, he said humbly. &But it is not a question that we will win the provincial election,8 he said. Although IIP had been talking with several parties, including minority groups and the Kurds, its coalition only contained Sunni members from the Arab, Turkoman, and Shabak communities. Shakir would not offer names -- he said he would submit those to the PRT once the date for the provincial election was set -- but he predicted he might be at the top of the list. -------------- TWO-STEP PLAN FOR DEVELOPMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) Regarding security in the province, Shakir said the time had come for Coalition Forces (CF) and the Iraqi Army (IA) to cede control of Mosul to the Iraqi Police (IP). The IP should be given adequate resources to patrol neighborhoods, such as vehicles and weapons, he said. Moslawis did not trust the IA because they viewed them as dominated by the Kurdish Peshmerga. CF needed to be moved to the periphery because every moment they spent inside the city &contributed to terrorism and instability,8 he claimed. On the other hand, Provincial Chief of Police Wathiq al-Qudir was a &good man8 who could be trusted by all sides. Once security was set, an IIP-controlled provincial administration could make improvements in the economy, said Shakir. Economic conditions in Ninawa were interlinked with security problems, he claimed, and unemployed youth would continue to assist the insurgency. Job creation was of utmost importance, he said, to move these youth into more productive roles in society. Healthcare needed improvement and fuel shortages were hurting the Iraqi people. &Coalition Forces have an obligation to rescue Iraq,8 claimed assistant Faris Younis. The U.S. as a superpower &can and should8 provide necessary services, claimed Shakir. -------------- BAGHDAD 00002652 002 OF 002 POLITICAL GOAL: A PLURALISTIC SOCIETY -------------- ¶5. (C) The goal, according to Shakir, was to build a pluralistic government and society so that the people of Ninawa, and Iraq as a whole, could live together in peace and harmony. Such an outcome was still about 10 years away, he said, and would only be possible once rule of law has been established throughout the country. In the upcoming provincial election, a &truly8 representative government needed to be elected that would best serve the interests of the people, he said. The current administration was not representative, claimed Shakir, because Sunnis declined to participate during the last elections in January 2005. Unfortunately, he admitted, this move allowed the Kurds to dominate provincial politics. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Shakir, a respected leader in northern Iraq, seems an obvious choice to lead his party,s coalition in the future provincial election. Although he appears sincere in his desire to improve conditions in the province, Shakir readily admits he cannot really comprehend the difficulties inherent in governing until he is actually doing it. He and his assistant, Younis, asked for PRT assistance to help train incoming government officials on governing (assuming, of course, that the IIP wins a majority of seats as they claim they will). More encouragingly, Shakir claims the IIP understands the need to work with non-Sunni groups and that they are continually engaging Kurdish and minority parties to build consensus on solving problems in the province. Whether or not Shakir and the IIP hold true to these claims remains to be seen, but at least they appear to be moving in the right direction. The only complicating matter is that the IIP -- and many Sunni Arab political and tribal leaders in Ninawa -- still have not fully grasped that the USG and CF are no longer occupying powers that are solely responsible for rebuilding and stabilizing Iraq. Perhaps, once Sunnis obtain leadership positions in the new Iraq (at least in places such as Ninawa) leaders like Shakir will realize that the future of their country rests in the hands of Iraqis themselves. SCOBEY