NSA RUBAI'E TELLS AMBASSADOR THAT SISTANI HAS NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000225

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER IZ
SUBJECT: NSA RUBAI'E TELLS AMBASSADOR THAT SISTANI HAS NO
FAVORITE CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: In a January 24 meeting, Iraqi National
Security Advisor Mowaffuk Rubai'e told the Ambassador that it
is not clear who will be Iraq's next Prime Minister.
Negotiations on this could last for weeks. Deputy President
Adel Abd al-Mehdi and Prime Minister Ibrahim Ja'afari are the
current frontrunners for the job. Grand Ayatollah SISTANI
has no favorite candidate, according to Rubai'e. The
Ambassador and Rubai'e concurred that security ministers must
be agreed upon by all sides. National unity is essential
now, and public debate needs to move beyond discussions of
strictly politics and security. End Summary.

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Candidates for Prime Minister
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2. (C) Rubai'e told the Ambassador that it is not yet clear
who will be Iraq's next Prime Minister. This decision could
be weeks away. Rubai'e also said that the United Iraqi
Coalition (UIC 555) is not yet ready to turn to a compromise
candidate; Deputy President Adel Abd al-Mehdi and Prime
Minister Ibrahim Ja'afari are still the two main contenders
for the job.


3. (C) Despite rumors to the contrary, it is clear, Rubai'e
said, that Grand Ayatollah SISTANI does not favor any
candidate. Rubai'e indicated that SISTANI might even be open
to a candidate other than Abd al-Mehdi or Ja'afari.

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The Shape of the Next Iraqi Government
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4. (C) Brushing aside the notion that a national unity
government undermines democracy by over-representing the
Sunni Arabs, the Ambassador and Rubai'e agreed that
ministerial seats in a national unity government should be
allocated in proportion to the December 15 election results
and that none of the major groups should be excluded. An
important part of government formation is to choose heads of
the security ministries who are acceptable to all parties and
not tied to sectarian groups. The Ambassador stated that
perhaps in five to ten years these ministries will not be a
source of sectarian tension, but for now the choice of who
will head these ministries is very delicate.


5. (C) The Ambassador suggested to Rubai'e that the
ministries should be divided into three groups: security,
economics, and services. A Deputy Prime Minister (DPM)
should take charge of two of these "pockets" of ministries,
while a special representative of the PM could take the
third. (NOTE: The constitution provides for only two DPMs in
the first Council of Representatives. END NOTE.) The
ministers in the new government should be competent
technocrats who can deliver the services the Iraqi people
need.

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Raising the Level of Public Debate
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6. (C) Rubai'e told the Ambassador that it is necessary to
raise the current level of public debate. All that Iraqis
discuss are politics and security. Economic and social
issues are largely ignored. Sectarian divides could be
bridged if Iraqis set aside their sectarian identities and
discussed ways to rebuild their country. Iraqi leaders who
prove incompetent often raise the sectarian issue to divert
attention away from their failings, Rubai'e said. This must
stop if Iraq is to come together as one nation and rebuild
itself.
KHALILZAD