NSA RUBAI'E TELLS AMBASSADOR THAT SISTANI HAS NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000225 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER IZ SUBJECT: NSA RUBAI'E TELLS AMBASSADOR THAT SISTANI HAS NO FAVORITE CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a January 24 meeting, Iraqi National Security Advisor Mowaffuk Rubai'e told the Ambassador that it is not clear who will be Iraq's next Prime Minister. Negotiations on this could last for weeks. Deputy President Adel Abd al-Mehdi and Prime Minister Ibrahim Ja'afari are the current frontrunners for the job. Grand Ayatollah Sistani has no favorite candidate, according to Rubai'e. The Ambassador and Rubai'e concurred that security ministers must be agreed upon by all sides. National unity is essential now, and public debate needs to move beyond discussions of strictly politics and security. End Summary. -------------- Candidates for Prime Minister -------------- ¶2. (C) Rubai'e told the Ambassador that it is not yet clear who will be Iraq's next Prime Minister. This decision could be weeks away. Rubai'e also said that the United Iraqi Coalition (UIC 555) is not yet ready to turn to a compromise candidate; Deputy President Adel Abd al-Mehdi and Prime Minister Ibrahim Ja'afari are still the two main contenders for the job. ¶3. (C) Despite rumors to the contrary, it is clear, Rubai'e said, that Grand Ayatollah Sistani does not favor any candidate. Rubai'e indicated that Sistani might even be open to a candidate other than Abd al-Mehdi or Ja'afari. -------------- The Shape of the Next Iraqi Government -------------- ¶4. (C) Brushing aside the notion that a national unity government undermines democracy by over-representing the Sunni Arabs, the Ambassador and Rubai'e agreed that ministerial seats in a national unity government should be allocated in proportion to the December 15 election results and that none of the major groups should be excluded. An important part of government formation is to choose heads of the security ministries who are acceptable to all parties and not tied to sectarian groups. The Ambassador stated that perhaps in five to ten years these ministries will not be a source of sectarian tension, but for now the choice of who will head these ministries is very delicate. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador suggested to Rubai'e that the ministries should be divided into three groups: security, economics, and services. A Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) should take charge of two of these "pockets" of ministries, while a special representative of the PM could take the third. (NOTE: The constitution provides for only two DPMs in the first Council of Representatives. END NOTE.) The ministers in the new government should be competent technocrats who can deliver the services the Iraqi people need. -------------- Raising the Level of Public Debate -------------- ¶6. (C) Rubai'e told the Ambassador that it is necessary to raise the current level of public debate. All that Iraqis discuss are politics and security. Economic and social issues are largely ignored. Sectarian divides could be bridged if Iraqis set aside their sectarian identities and discussed ways to rebuild their country. Iraqi leaders who prove incompetent often raise the sectarian issue to divert attention away from their failings, Rubai'e said. This must stop if Iraq is to come together as one nation and rebuild itself. KHALILZAD