MODERATE ISLAMIST CABINET CONTENDER URGES USG TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002065 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/26 TAGS: PGOV PINR PNAT ECON EAIR ELTN ETRD KDEM IZ SUBJECT: MODERATE ISLAMIST CABINET CONTENDER URGES USG TO PERSUADE MALIKI TO TAKE ON QUALIFIED ADVISORS Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARGARET SCOBEY FOR RE ASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (S/REL UK) Summary: In a June 8 meeting with Emboffs, moderate Islamist Ali al-Dabbagh (strictly protect) said that the present Sadrist Minister of Transportation, Karim Mahdi Salih, may be forced to resign and that he is a possible candidate to replace him. Dabbagh claimed to be undecided as to whether he would take the job if offered, because he is unsure that he would be able act independently and implement free market reforms. At a subsequent meeting with Poloffs Jun 9, al-Dabbagh argued that many of the new ministers are not qualified for their jobs. He said that only competent advisors working on the Prime Minister's staff could overcome this problem. Dabbagh claimed, however, that qualified advisors may not be willing to work for Prime Minister (PM) al-Maliki because they will not have access to the PM if he continues to rely too much on a tight circle of Dawist advisors. Al-Dabbagh expressed his concerns that the current government might soon fall, to which PolOff replied that the USG is doing everything it can to make this government a success. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Replacement Candidate for Ministry of Transportation? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (S/REL UK) Ali al-Dabbagh told Emboffs in a June 8 meeting that he is a possible candidate to replace Sadrist Karim Mahdi Salih as Minister of Transportation. He said that he is not certain if he will take the job because he is wary of serving as a "Sadrist" minister. Al-Dabbagh said the former Sadrist Minister of Transportation, Salam al-Maliki used his position to funnel approximately 300,000 USD to the Sadr Bureau each month. Al-Dabbagh said he told Sadr's aides that, if he served as minister, he would have to do things his way, which would include not committing graft. ¶3. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh told EmbOffs that his initial priorities as Minister of Transportation would be the port and aviation sectors. He said there is a great deal of corruption at the ports that needs to be rooted out, and that continued dredging is necessary to increase port capacity. Al-Dabbagh told us that he would work to improve management of Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and seek funds to expand the fleet of Iraqi Airways. He said he believes privatization of the airline is necessary but several years off. Al-Dabbagh also said continued reconstruction of Iraq's rail system is important, and he described his vision of constructing a line running from Turkey to the Gulf. In addition, Dabbagh said he would work to build capacity within the Ministry, staffing it with technocrats rather than political hangers-on. -------------- Al-Dabbagh's View of the New Cabinet -------------- ¶4. (S/REL UK) On June 9, al-Dabbagh gave Poloffs a bleak picture of the incoming cabinet. He said the ministers of Water (Latif Rashid),Electricity (Karim Wahid al-Hasan) and Foreign Affairs (Hoshyar Zebari) were fully qualified. Al-Dabbagh argued that the rest of the ministers were unqualified, singling out the ministers of Finance (Bayan Jabr),Oil (Husayn Shahristani),Trade (Abd al-Falah al-Sudani),Communications (Muhammad Allawi),and Municipalities and Public Works (Riyadh Ghuraiyib) -------------- Strong PM Advisors Needed -------------- ¶5. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh said PM al-Maliki should have first-rate advisors who could ensure that the ministries followed policies that would solve the country's problems. Former PM Jafari's advisor Falah Fiad and al-Dabbagh had worked on an organization chart for such an advisor's office, and Dabbagh had talked to several potential advisors, including former Minister of Finance Ali Allawi, his deputy, and former Minister of Oil Thamir Ghadban. -------------- Sami al-Askari Has Maliki's Ear -------------- ¶6. (S/REL UK) The problem, al-Dabbagh said, is that Maliki is relying too much on Sami al-Askari to pick his top advisors, and al-Askari is relying on the network of his son, Yassir al-Askari, and his group, the Iraqi Prospect Organization (IPO). (Note: IPO was a London-based opposition group BAGHDAD 00002065 002 OF 003 established by young Shia medical students in 2002. The London group moved to Baghdad after the liberation, and established a Baghdad chapter, which CPA helped fund. Once funds started coming in, however, the group fell apart, with allegations of corruption and mismanagement on all sides. It was impossible to determine which side was right, but the group agreed to separate amicably, with the London-based oppositionists returning home to continue their medical studies and political work. Members of the group continued to run a web site and to publish articles and scholarly analyses, mostly from a Dawa and democratic Islamist perspective. Their website is www.iprospect.org.uk. End note.) IPO Chairman Ahmad Shames has been hired as one such advisor, al-Dabbagh said. He added that Maliki's advisors are making the same mistakes that Jafari's advisors made -- drawing only on Dawa loyalists and on people with insufficient experience to run a prime minister's office. -------------- Problems Only the Competent Can Solve -------------- ¶7. (S/REL UK) In the ministries, problems abound, al-Dabbagh said. The Ministry of Industry has spent only two percent of its budget for 2006. The Labor and Social Affairs ministry has a budget of 500 billion Iraqi dinars (USD 300 million) for a major social program, but has helped only 5,000 families -- one percent of the families eligible for assistance. Dabbagh alleged that Sayyid Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim supported Interior Minister Jawad Bolani only because Bolani agreed to keep the arrangements in place that Bayan Jabr had set up in the Interior Ministry. "Hakim wants a weak minister," al-Dabbagh said. Given the situation in the ministries, Dabbagh stressed the importance of the Prime Minister having qualified advisors working for him. Dabbagh added that if bad staff blocks access to Maliki, the good advisers will not stay. Meanwhile, Dabbagh said, gamesmanship continues around Maliki. Falah Fiad may play a role, but Ali Adeeb is trying to exclude Fiad. Sami al-Askari is trying to control staff appointments, but his network of contacts, Dabbagh repeated, is too limited. -------------- And What If It Fails? -------------- ¶8. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh asked PolOff what the USG would do if the Maliki Government failed. Poloff replied that the United States was focused only on making the Maliki government a success. Al-Dabbagh said he thought it inevitable that several ministers would have to be replaced for incompetence, but that he hoped the government did not fall, or, if it did, that the fall would be handled in a constitutional way. -------------- Unhappiness With Yaqubi -------------- ¶9. (S/REL UK) Al-Dabbagh said he has told Fadhila spiritual head Sheikh Muhammad al-Yaqubi that he (al-Dabbagh) does not want to be identified as being Deputy Secretary-General of the Fadhila party. Instead, he wants to be considered as an independent. He indicated he would be leaving the party, but does not want to do so in haste, to avoid the impression he left because he did not get a ministry. His real reason for leaving, Dabbagh explained, was that Sheikh Yaqubi in several important instances failed to approve his political advice, e.g., how the party should position itself in ministerial negotiations, and how it should try to relate to other parties within the United Iraqi Coalition. To have these issues decided by the party's spiritual leader would constitute wilayet al-faqih, a doctrine al-Dabbagh said he would not follow. The new Secretary-General and leader of Fadhila is Abd al-Rahim al-Hasuna, a Fadhila Party member from Nasiriyah. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (S/REL UK) Comment: Al-Dabbagh has no experience in the transportation sector, but his civil engineering education and his business experience running a fabrication company would give him some background needed for running the Transportation Ministry. In addition, al-Dabbagh has long expressed an open-market philosophy. He told us that if Iraq is ever to achieve economic prosperity, it first needs to reduce subsidies and stock its ministries with technocrats rather than politicos. Al-Dabbagh, however, also told us he BAGHDAD 00002065 003 OF 003 is wary of Sadrists expecting him to utilize the Ministry as a money generator for Sadrist political purposes. It remains to be seen whether al-Dabbagh could remain committed to his free-market reform principles while serving in a "Sadrist" ministry. ¶11. (S/REL UK) Comment continued: Some of al-Dabbagh's comments on the cabinet could be considered the sour grapes of a disappointed office seeker. They could also be viewed as reaffirmation that Iraqi Shia views are not monolithic. Another independent, Mustafa al-Kadhimy (strictly protect) of the Iraq Memory Foundation, told us June 9 that the only competent ministers were Electricity, Water, Foreign Affairs and DPM Salih (i.e., essentially the same list as Dabbagh's). He said that Ayatollah Husayn al-Sadr of Kadhimiya, now in Amman for medical treatment, was very angry over the lack of competence in the cabinet. Kadhimy said he has known Minister of Interior Jawad Boulani for more than ten years, and he is more sectarian than Bayan Jabr. End comment. SPECKHARD