A TIRED PRIME MINISTER STRUGGLING WITH UNWIELDY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001946 SIPDIS SIPDIS THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016 TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL SUBJECT: A TIRED PRIME MINISTER STRUGGLING WITH UNWIELDY POLITICAL SYSTEM CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR ZALMAY KHALILZAD PER 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON JUNE 7, PRIME MINISTER MALIKI REITERATED HIS NEED TO THE AMBASSADOR FOR MORE TRAINED IRAQI ARMY AND NATIONAL POLICE TO HANDLE THE SECURITY SITUATION IN BASRAH. MALIKI SAID HE BELIEVES HE CAN GET HIS TWO PREFERRED NOMINEES CONFIRMED ON JUNE 8, EVEN WITHOUT SCIRI SUPPORT, BUT WAS PAGE 02 RUEHGBA1946 C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001946 STILL SEEKING CONSENSUS FROM HIS COALITION TO MOVE FORWARD. MEANWHILE, THE SUNNI COALITION, TAWAFFUQ, INFORMED THE PRIME MINISTER (PM) THAT IF HE CHANGED HIS MOI CANDIDATE, FAROUQ AL ARAJI, TAWAFFUQ WOULD WITHDRAW ITS SUPPORT FROM THE AGREED MOD CANDIDATE ABDUL QADIR JASSIM AL MUFRAJI, AND RETURN THE ENTIRE SELECTION PROCESS BACK TO SQUARE ONE. AMBASSADOR SAID HE WOULD CONTACT TAWAFFUQ. END SUMMARY. -------------- BASRAH -------------- ¶2. (C) PM MALIKI, LOOKING EXTREMELY TIRED, RECEIVED THE AMBASSADOR ON JUNE 7, IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A MEETING WITH THE BASRAH SECURITY COMMITTEE. BASRAH, MALIKI SAID, IS THE PROBLEM OF IRAQ. THE AMBASSADOR SAID THAT U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER HADLEY HAD ASKED AMBASSADOR WHAT HE WAS DOING TO HELP THE PM WITH BASRAH. AMBASSADOR SAID THAT HE WOULD EXPLAIN TO HADLEY THAT THE PM WANTS A SECURITY PLAN FOR BASRAH AND THAT GENERAL CASEY IS WORKING ON IT. THE PM SAID THAT THE COMMANDER OF THE 10TH DIVISION IS IN CHARGE, BUT THERE IS CONFUSION. THE LOCAL POLICE SITUATION IS VERY BAD, PAGE 03 RUEHGBA1946 C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001946 MALIKI CONTINUED, AND THE POLICE HAVE BEEN PENETRATED BY THE POLITICAL PARTIES, WHO ARE GIVING THEM ORDERS. THE IRAQI ARMY IS GOOD, BUT TOO FEW TRAINED SOLDIERS ARE AVAILABLE. THE 10TH DIVISION COVERS 4 PROVINCES, AND THERE IS ONLY ONE BRIGADE (OF 1000 MEN) FOR BASRAH. AMBASSADOR SUGGESTED THAT THE PM MAKE BAGHDAD AND BASRAH NATIONAL PRIORITIES AND BRING IN EITHER MORE COALITION FORCES OR OTHER IRAQI FORCES. THE PM RULED OUT MOVING IRAQI FORCES FROM OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TO BASRAH; IT WOULD JUST CREATE A VACUUM ELSEWHERE. HE SAID HE NEEDS MORE TRAINED IRAQI SOLDIERS AND NATIONAL POLICE BECAUSE THE LOCAL POLICE ARE JUST TOO BAD. -------------- MOI/MOD STRUGGLE -------------- ¶3. (C) AMBASSADOR BRIEFED MALIKI ON THE RESULTS OF HIS DISCUSSION EARLIER ON JUNE 7 WITH SCIRI LEADER SHAYKH ABDUL AZIZ AL HAKIM (SEPTEL). ABDUL AZIZ FINALLY AGREED TO CONVENE THE SHIA COALITION (UIC) TO STRENGTHEN THE PM BY FINDING A WAY TO LET THE PM CHOOSE HIS OWN CANDIDATES. IF THE UIC DOES THIS, THEN ABDUL AZIZ INSISTED THAT TAWAFUQ MAKE THE SAME PAGE 04 RUEHGBA1946 C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001946 PLEDGE. AMBASSADOR PROMISED THAT IF THE UIC MAKES THAT DECISION, THEN HE WOULD TRY TO GET TAWAFUQ TO DO THE SAME. THE PM THEN REFERRED TO THE LATEST TAWAFUQ MOVE: THREATENING TO WITHDRAW THEIR ACCEPTANCE OF ABDEL QADER JASSIM AL MUFRAJI FOR MOD IF THE PRIME MINISTER SWITCHES OUT MOI CANDIDATE FAROUQ AL ARAJI FOR SOMEONE ELSE. IF THE PM DECIDES TO PROPOSE JAWAD BOLANI, TAWAFUQ WOULD INSIST ON ONE OF FOUR OTHER SUNNIS: MUNIR RAHIM AL-JAHESHI; DAHAM AL-JABURI; ALI KHALIFA AL-DULAIMI; OR FADIH AL-AINI. ¶4. (C) AMBASSADOR SAID THAT THE BEST DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FOR TAWAFUQ TO GIVE THE PM THE RIGHT TO SELECT HIS NEW MINISTERS. THE PM SAID HE EXPECTS THAT THE RESULTS OF THE UIC MEETING, WHICH WAS IN SESSION AT THE TIME, WOULD ALLOW HIM TO NAME THE MOI, BUT ONLY IF IT IS NOT FAROUQ AL-ARAJI, THEREBY SCUTTLING THE DEAL WITH TAWAFUQ AND TAKING THE PROCESS BACK TO SQUARE ONE. MALIKI SAID THAT THE SUNNI DID NOT ACCEPT BOLANI PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF HIS LACK OF EXPERIENCE. AMBASSADOR ASKED FOR SOME CLARIFICATION ON BOLANI AND HOW CLOSE HE IS HE TO SHAYKH ABDUL AZIZ. MALIKI SAID THAT HE IS CLOSER TO BOLANI THAN SHAYKH ABDUL AZIZ. IN RESPONSE TO THE PAGE 05 RUEHGBA1946 C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001946 AMBASSADOR'S QUESTION, MALIKI SAID HE BELIEVES THAT HE COULD GET HIS TWO CANDIDATES (ABDUL QADER AND FAROUQ AL ARAJI) CONFIRMED THE FOLLOWING DAY. AMBASSADOR OFFERED ADDITIONAL HELP. THE PM SAID HE DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE ABDUL QADER AS THAT WOULD START THE PROCESS ALL OVER, BUT HE COULD SWITCH FROM FAROUQ AL ARAJI, IF THE OTHER BLOCS WOULD AGREE TO A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE. HE SAID HE THINKS THE KURDS ARE OK WITH BOLANI, ADDING THAT HE WAS CLOSE TO THE SUNNI AS WELL, SO THAT TAWAFUQ WAS JUST CREATING AN EXCUSE TO CHANGE MOD CANDIDATES. MALIKI ASKED FOR THE AMBASSADOR'S HELP WITH TAWAFUQ. ¶5. (C) IN EXASPERATION, MALIKI SAID IRAQ SHOULD HAVE A REPUBLIC. THE AMBASSADOR AGREED THAT THE CURRENT SYSTEM IS NOT FUNCTIONAL BUT THAT CHANGING IT WOULD BE FOR THE FUTURE. THE PM CALLED IT A "FAILURE." THE MEETING CONCLUDED WITH THE AMBASSADOR'S AGREEMENT TO MEET WITH TAWAFUQ. MALIKI ADVISED THAT AMBASSADOR SHOULD TRY TO GET TAWAFUQ TO AGREE TO BOLANI. ********* START OF SECTION 2 ********* SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016 PAGE 06 RUEHGBA1946 C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001946 TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL SUBJECT: A TIRED PRIME MINISTER STRUGGLING WITH UNWIELDY POLITICAL SYSTEM AMBASSADOR SAID HE WILL BE IN TOUCH WITH TAWAFUQ. KHALILZAD