IRAQ PRTS ASSESS PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS - APR 2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 BAGHDAD 001918 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV ECON MOPS PREL IZ SUBJECT: IRAQ PRTS ASSESS PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS - APR 2006 Classified By: DANIEL SPECKHARD: Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) INTRODUCTION. The Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in Iraq report monthly the ability of the provincial level government to function effectively and the obstacles that prevent full self- governance. The PRTs assess provincial governments in the areas of governance, economic development and infrastructure, and the Multi- National Corps assesses security (which is included in the overall assessment). Governance includes the governor, provincial council (PC),director generals (DGs),and rule of law and transparency. The economic development category measures finance, banking and business; labor and unemployment; transportation; and agriculture and food. Infrastructure incorporates basic needs; capacity of electricity, fuel, telecom, transportation, and irrigation systems; and education systems. The sub-categories are broken down even further to ensure full consideration of the various functions that fall into the respective categories. ¶2. (C) PRT members evaluate each area and assign a color to identify its current status. Considering each sub-category status, the three main pillars are assigned a color-coded status and these roll up into the overall evaluation for the respective PC. Green indicates good progress with no identified problems, yellow means progress being made with only minor problems, orange indicates slow progress with significant problems, and red means very slow progress with major problems. The following paragraphs summarize the April 2006 assessments for the PRTs in Ninewa, Kirkuk, Babil, and Baghdad Provinces. END INTRODUCTION. -------------- NINEWA PROVINCE -------------- ¶3. (C) OVERALL AND GOVERNANCE. All three main pillars once again remained orange for the Ninewa provincial government April assessment, resulting in an overall assessment of orange. A surge of insurgent attacks against political leaders, their staffs and family members raised the level of concern about personal security. Nevertheless, the Governor and his staff continued to perform their duties. The Governor provides leadership within his sphere of influence, which is small. He works well with the Directors General and attempts to influence the political process through the media. Corruption is not normally associated with the Governor's office. However, full disclosure of funds, resources, contracts awarded, or other budgetary issues essential to a transparent government are lacking. The Provincial Council (PC) Chairman continues to dominate meetings but certain committees and individual members are beginning to be more BAGHDAD 00001918 002 OF 007 assertive and independent. Some PC members have demonstrated a new resolve in instituting democratic processes as interest grows in equitable distribution of the US $20M reconstruction and development funds from the central government. ¶4. (C) INFRASTRUCTURE. Infrastructure was rated overall orange with basic needs coded orange, capacity of the various systems such as electricity, fuel, telecom, etc., again lagged at red; and the education system was yellow. The infrastructure in Ninewa Province suffers from over 30 years of neglect. The provincial utility directorate organizations generally lack management skills, capital improvement schemes, urban and municipal planning skills, and adoption of necessary operation and maintenance practices. These weaknesses combined with centralized bureaucracy and authority, particularly budgetary, limits opportunity for genuine development. Waste treatment and solid waste disposal are the most significant problems with basic service delivery in the province. Water treatment plants and systems still need additional refurbishment, but capacity and distribution of improved water supply continues to improve. ¶5. (C) Despite recent completion of a Provincial Reconstruction Development Committee (PRDC) supply project, there is still a shortfall of approximately 355 transformers within the province. The average hours of power supplied to Ninewa by the national grid during April was nine hours, up from five and a half. Ninewa produces roughly 25 percent of the power for Iraq but receives less than 10 percent of the power produced. Most of the region's power is exported to Baghdad. Approximately half of the transformers within the province are overloaded. Reportedly, there are as many as 157 villages in the northern part of Ninewa Province that do not have electricity. Although a list of these villages has been submitted to the Ministry of Electricity in Baghdad, no action has occurred to remedy the situation. ¶6. (C) ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. The overall assessment for economic development was rated orange. Transportation was rated red and all other sub-areas received an orange rating. Moving from a socialist to a market economy will involve a paradigm shift in thought, as well as a secure environment. Local Iraqi citizens have the desire to change but are hampered by fear of insurgents and established governmental regulations. Entrepreneurship is alive and well in smaller markets. Development of business associations will further strengthen growth and political influence of small businessmen and would empower local town BAGHDAD 00001918 003 OF 007 governments to represent their constituency with greater clout. There are 22 state-owned enterprises in Ninewa Province. Most of these are operating substantially below capacity or not at all, yet they continue to employ staffs who perform little or no actual productive work. The existence of these state-owned enterprises tend to depress overall productivity and should be eliminated. -------------- TAMIM (KIRKUK) PROVINCE -------------- ¶7. (C) OVERALL AND GOVERNANCE. Kirkuk was again rated overall orange for April, as well as the three main pillars. The governance area was rated orange. The PC remained yellow and the Director General sub-area increased to yellow. The Governor's office and rule of law and transparency received orange ratings. Ethnic divisions continue to impede real progress. The Deputy Governor position remains unfilled. The PC must become self policing, self sufficient, and demonstrate the ability to manage priorities and resources. The court system must establish a facility that is physically secure, as well as provide adequate security details for protection of judges away from the courthouse. Handwritten logs and ledgers should be replaced with computerized monitoring systems. ¶8. (SBU) INFRASTRUCTURE. Infrastructure was rated overall orange with basic needs coded orange, capacity of the various systems such as electricity, fuel, telecom, etc., slipped to orange, the education system was yellow, and civil service was rated red. Although the education system was rated yellow and functions well, the ethnic diversity of Kirkuk means that different schools teach in different languages: Arabic, Kurdish, or Turcoman. Schools with a mixed student population are particularly a problem in that the language children are taught in school may not be the one spoken at home. Additionally, schools may reflect only one ethnic group perspective. There have been charges by the Kurdish community that qualified Kurdish teachers were not hired due to ethnicity. ¶9. (SBU) The monthly average for electricity in homes rose to approximately 14-16 hours per day. The percentage of homes connected to an electrical grid remained approximately 85%. The PC approved three electrical projects, however, none are yet funded. There are four substations currently under construction in different areas of Kirkuk Province. ¶10. (SBU) ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. Factors affecting the economic development rating were all rated orange. The agriculture and food BAGHDAD 00001918 004 OF 007 category slipped back to orange from yellow. There was an 11 percent increase in rural and small business growth, while medium and large business grew 10 percent. Unemployment, at 25 to 35 percent, continues to be a problem. Average household income is only USD $300 per month according to information gathered by the PRT. According to the data collected, approximately 15 percent of the population goes hungry at any one time. There are ample agricultural products for sale in Kirkuk markets due to local farmers selling their products but food is often expensive. -------------- BABIL PROVINCE -------------- ¶11. (C) OVERALL AND GOVERNANCE. Babil Province was assessed overall at orange for April. Governance was overall yellow. Three of the four sub-categories were yellow. The fourth area, Directors General, was rated orange. On 26 April, the Babil Provincial Government ended its boycott of the PRT and Coalition Forces (CF) and held its first PRDC meeting in eight weeks. Communication has been open and cooperative. The most critical indication of successfully restored relationships has been the absence of threats to any PC members who have engaged with USG entities. ¶12. (C) INFRASTRUCTURE. The overall infrastructure assessment for Babil Province was rated orange. There have been no substantial changes to basic needs from last month. Approximately 80 percent of the region has access to potable water on a daily basis. The solid waste management system is ineffective. Proper collection and disposal is key to growth and improvement. The lack of medical equipment and supplies places patients at grave risk for further complications. Currently, hospitals can barely handle the daily patient requirements. They are overcrowded and need trained personnel. The medical and hospital system would be overwhelmed in case of any major casualty incident. ¶13. (SBU) ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. The economic development category was rated overall orange, as well as all sub-categories. Private sector enterprise is very limited. Very few businesses in Babil are successful privately owned enterprises. The key is getting other investors, foreign or domestic, to enter the market. Loans must be affordable and available for potential businesses. Some investors have complained that banks cannot loan them money because their loans would exceed the bank loan threshold. State-owned enterprises should be vastly reduced and retooled for new markets that could impact economic growth and development, especially the textile industry. BAGHDAD 00001918 005.2 OF 007 -------------- BAGHDAD PROVINCE -------------- ¶14. (C) OVERALL AND GOVERNANCE. The overall and governance assessment for Baghdad Province was coded orange for April. The Governor's Office and PC were rated yellow, while the Directors General and Rule of Law and Transparency sub-categories were orange. The Governor's Office, which receives direction and priorities from the PC, must influence the determination of those priorities and execute them in ways best for the Baghdad Province populace. The Governor's Office should press the PC to clarify ambiguities in government structure in order to streamline government, prevent redundancy, and prevent intergovernmental conflict. ¶15. (C) The PC meets weekly but its meetings are generally closed to the public and the minutes are rarely published. The PC budgeting process and accountability of funds are unclear. The PC has set up committees and is reaching out to district councils, but is doing so in the absence of a provincial governance charter. ¶16. (C) INFRASTRUCTURE. Baghdad Province infrastructure increased from red to orange. Basic needs and capacity of the various systems such as electricity, fuel, telecom, etc., were assessed as orange. Civil service was rated red and education received a yellow. Baghdad residents continue to see water service improvements. One water treatment plant expansion added 50 million gallons per day to city capacity. The main challenge within the city remains water loss from leaking pipes which causes contamination of over 50 percent of the city potable water. The average hours of power reportedly supplied by the national grid to Baghdad Province during April was less than the hours experienced under the Saddam regime. The electrical supply does not meet current demands. Residents continue to rely on neighborhood power generation. The overall unsatisfactory state of the infrastructure continues to undermine possibilities for progress in all sectors. The Baghdad Provincial Government must secure funding to fundamentally improve the volume and delivery of essential services required by the population. ¶17. (SBU) ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. The overall assessment for economic development was coded orange. All sub-categories were each rated orange. Loans are difficult to obtain for business owners. The first micro-finance center in Baghdad Province is scheduled to open within the next 60 days in Mahmoudiya district. The PRT has seen evidence that some small businesses are cropping up around the BAGHDAD 00001918 006 OF 007 province and some deserted shops are being re-occupied. Job opportunities for unskilled laborers are few and skilled positions are difficult to fill. The large unskilled labor pool keeps wages generally low. -------------- TABLE SUMMARIZATION -------------- ¶18. (C) The following table summarizes, by province, the assessment report in governance, economic development, infrastructure, and security which all contribute to the overall assessment. Colors listed in capital letters indicate a change from the previous month. NINEWA PROVINCE: Overall Assessment Orange Governance Overall Orange --Governor's Office Orange --Provincial Council Orange --Director's General Orange --Rule of Law and Transparency Orange Economic Development Overall Orange --Finance/Banking/Business Orange --Labor and Unemployment Orange --Transportation Red --Agriculture/Food Orange Infrastructure Overall Orange --Basic Needs Orange --Economic Infrastructure Red --Education Yellow --Civil Service Data Not Available Security Overall Yellow --Threat Assessment Yellow --Iraqi Security Forces Yellow --Governor Yellow --MNF-I Green TAMIM (KIRKUK) PROVINCE: Overall Assessment Orange Governance Overall Orange --Governor's Office Orange --Provincial Council Yellow --Director's General YELLOW --Rule of Law and Transparency Orange Economic Development Overall Orange --Finance/Banking/Business Orange --Labor and Unemployment Orange --Transportation Orange --Agriculture/Food ORANGE Infrastructure Overall Orange --Basic Needs Orange --Economic Infrastructure ORANGE --Civil Service Red --Education Yellow Security Overall Orange --Capable Iraqi Army Orange --Capable IPS Orange --Detention Red --PJCC Green --PSC Green BABIL PROVINCE: Overall Assessment Orange Governance Overall Yellow --Governor's Office Yellow --Provincial Council Yellow --Director's General Orange --Rule of Law and Transparency Yellow Economic Development Overall Orange --Finance/Banking/Business Orange --Labor and Unemployment Orange --Transportation ORANGE --Agriculture/Food Orange Infrastructure Overall Orange BAGHDAD 00001918 007 OF 007 --Basic Needs Orange --Economic Infrastructure Orange --Education Orange --Civil Service Orange Security Overall Orange --Capable Iraqi Army Orange --Capable IPS Orange --Detention Orange --PJCC ORANGE --PSC Orange BAGHDAD PROVINCE: Overall Assessment Orange Governance Overall --Governor's Office Yellow --Provincial Council Yellow --Director's General Orange --Rule of Law and Transparency Orange Economic Development Overall Orange --Finance/Banking/Business Orange --Labor and Unemployment Orange --Transportation Orange --Agriculture/Food Orange Infrastructure Overall ORANGE --Basic Needs Orange --Economic Infrastructure ORANGE --Education Yellow --Civil Service Red Security Overall Yellow --Capable Iraqi Army Yellow --Capable IPS Yellow --Detention Yellow --PJCC Yellow --PSC Orange ¶19. (C) COMMENT. The assessment is performed each month by the PRTs and evaluates information existing at the time. In some cases, the PRT members do not have sufficient data to make a fair evaluation without further research. The rating is aimed at identifying areas that need improvement to pursue the provincial path to self-sufficiency. It serves as a roadmap for future PRT training efforts, as well as a measurement of progress made. The items cited in the above paragraphs are not totally inclusive, but rather a sampling of the actions necessary for further progress. END COMMENT. KHALILZAD