DIYALA: MAYOR'S ASSASSINATION CAPS RECENT VIOLENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001899 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2026 TAGS: PGOV PHUM IZ SUBJECT: DIYALA: MAYOR'S ASSASSINATION CAPS RECENT VIOLENCE IN KEY CITY OF MUQDADIYAH Classified By: (U) Classified by Political Counselor Margaret Scobey fo r reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The assassination of the IIP Sunni mayor of Muqdadiyah, Diyala's political center of gravity, caps several weeks of increased violence in and around the city. The perpetrators remain unknown, but Shia are steeling themselves for retaliation while the IIP has pledged not to respond in kind. Muqdadiyah's political significance makes the death of its mayor an unusually important political event in the life of Diyala, though the mayor himself was not a particularly important player. END SUMMARY. -------------- SECTARIAN VIOLENCE AND THE DEATH OF THE MAYOR -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On the morning of May 31, Allaiwi Farhan al-Dulaymi was killed when an IED placed inside the air conditioning unit within his office exploded. Two of his bodyguards and two other Iraqis were wounded in the explosion. Allaiwi, a member of the Iraqi Islamic Party, had been mayor of Muqdadiyah since April 2005. ¶3. (C) Given the placement of the mayor's office within a compound including the city's police headquarters and guarded by the Iraqi police at all hours, Muqdadiyah political leaders and residents allege that the attack almost certainly received assistance from at least some elements of the local police. The identities of those behind the attack, however, are unknown. One group that may have initiated the assassination consists of hard-line Sunnis residing north of the city. The insurgents residing in this lawless area are variously rumored to be aligned with al-Qaeda, the New Ba'ath Party, or a mix of both. Local Shia and Kurdish leaders, however, either explicitly or implicitly linked the assassination to the ongoing, tit-for-tat murders and kidnappings among armed groups linked to Sunnis (to include the insurgents) and Shia. Over the past several weeks, these attacks have reached a high frequency. ¶4. (C) To date, the Shia have generally gotten the worst of the back and forth violence. According to Dr. Abbas Fadhil al-Timimi, Diyala's Director General for Agriculture and a prominent local Shia, more than 30 Muqdadiyah-area Shia have been killed over the past four weeks. Many others have been kidnapped over the same period, including the son of prominent local Shia sheikh and former provincial council member Hussein al-Shaji al-Timimi, the son of current Shia provincial council member Saqban Mohammed al-Timimi, and the brother of local Sadrist "spiritual leader" Sheikh Mezher al-Zubaidi. Sunnis have suffered casualties recently as well. -------------- SHIA PANIC, IIP PLEDGE OF RESTRAINT -------------- ¶5. (C) Prominent Shia in Muqdadiyah displayed signs of foreboding in conversations with poloff on May 31. Area SCIRI leader and provincial council member Ali Majeed al-Awsi greeted poloff's call by darkly joking that "you have called to offer us condolences in advance." Dr. Abbas al-Timimi predicted substantial Shia flight from Muqdadiyah in fear of potential Sunni retaliation. Hussam al-Jaaf, the Kurdish former chairman of the Muqdadiyah municipal council, separately mentioned that several Shia families of his acquaintance who had already been planning departures from Muqdadiyah were accelerating their plans. (In a previous conversation with poloff, Jaaf had described a Kurdish community on the verge of a mass exodus to safer, KRG-controlled areas.) ¶6. (C) Top Diyala IIP leaders, however, pledged to poloff and coalition forces that the party would not respond to the attack with violence. Diyala IIP Chairman Hamdi Hassoun al-Zubaidi reiterated to poloff his usual refrain disclaiming any violence as inimical to parties which, like the IIP, are involved in the political process. Deputy Governor and IIP member Auwf Rahoumi al-Rubei'i pledged to the CF commander his assistance in working with tribal leaders to calm the situation. Diyala IIP Vice-Chairman and provincial council Secretary-General Mahdi Saleh al-Juburi, who represents a SIPDIS harder-line trend within the party, told poloff that "this has upset us, but we will not do anything that will upset you." -------------- COMMENT -------------- BAGHDAD 00001899 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) The death of the mayor of Muqdadiyah has pushed the conflict in the city to a new level and may ultimately affect other parts of Diyala. Muqdadiyah is the political center of gravity in the province. The previous and current governors of the province, the current deputy governor, and a total of 17 of the 41 provincial council members are all from Muqdadiyah, which is also the IIP's base in the province. Conflicts in Muqdadiyah quickly make their way to the provincial level. Even if the IIP continues to adhere to its pledge not to retaliate, it cannot necessarily control the actions of its own members ) not to mention the potential actions of insurgents eager to seize on Allaiwi al-Dulaymi's assassination as a pretext for further violence. KHALILZAD