KURDS HAVE MIXED REACTIONS TO AL-MALIKI GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001704

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: KURDS HAVE MIXED REACTIONS TO AL-MALIKI GOVERNMENT


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford
for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: On May 21-22, an informal survey of
Kurds from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP),
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK),and Kurdistan
Islamic Union (KIU),all of whom have ministries in
the new government, revealed a little optimism, but
mainly deep misgivings about the quality of the new,
permanent government of Iraq. While PUK members Fuad
Ma'sum and Tania Gilly both expressed some cautious
optimism for the al-Maliki administration, Presidency
Council advisers and senior KDP members were more
concerned. Rising leaders of the two main parties
have privately alerted Embassy to the fissures within
the Kurdistan Alliance, and indicated that the gulf
between the two parties contributed to the weaker
showing by the Kurds in this government. End Summary.

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Mixed Reactions: The Good...
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2. (C) On May 21-22, an informal survey of Kurds from
the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP),Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan (PUK),and the Kurdistan Islamic Union
(KIU),all of whom have ministries in the new
government, revealed a little optimism but mostly deep
misgivings about the quality of the permanent
government of Iraq. PUK (and Council of
Representatives) members Fuad Ma'sum and Tania Gilly
expressed cautious optimism for the al-Maliki
administration. Ma'sum said he was pleased overall
with the quality of the Kurdish cabinet members, and
dismissed former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's comments
on May 20 that al-Maliki's government was no
improvement on Ja'afari's as premature. (Comment: The
headline to Allawi's interview in Al Sharq al-Awsat
newspaper on May 20 read, "Allawi says al-Maliki's
cabinet is just the same as Ja'afari's!" End
Comment.) Ma'sum reiterated that he had known al-
Maliki since 1992. They had met at an opposition
conference, where al-Maliki had been Ma'sum's deputy
in one of the committees. Ma'sum also disclosed that
he had been on al-Maliki's master's degree review
committee. Al-Maliki, according to Ma'sum, is a
fervent anti-Baathist with a tendency to get angry too
quickly. This will be a problem for al-Maliki,
especially since the Shia Alliance has placed five
"advisers" (read: observers) in his office. Ma'sum
stated that al-Maliki would have at least one Kurdish
adviser in the Prime Minister's office, at al-Maliki's
own request.


3. (C) PUK member Tania Gilly also dismissed Allawi's
criticism, sneering that a man who refused to even
stay in the country he was purporting to lead should
not be heeded. Although she did concede that it was
too early to tell how good al-Maliki's government
would be, she pessimistically assessed that it might
not last all four years. Gilly added that the Kurds
could have done better for themselves in the cabinet
if they had truly negotiated as one unit. In a
whisper, Gilly confided that even the PUK and KDP
negotiators - Barham Salih, Fuad Ma'sum, Hoshyar
Zebari, and Rowsch Shaways - had all negotiated for
their own interests, not for either party or Kurds as
a whole. Unfortunately compromise in Iraqi culture
was seen as weakness and the Kurds' continuing
willingness to compromise for the good of the country
led to a perception that the Kurds were weak, Gilly
said. Adding to the problem, she claimed, was the
fact that Barzani insisted on his agenda even when it
ran counter to larger Kurdish interests, making
Talabani appear to be the one "betraying Kurdish
rights" by compromising with the other groups.

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The Bad...
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4. (C) In contrast, President Talabani's Chief of
Staff Kamran Karadaghi and the Presidency's Media
Adviser Hiwa Othman - both nominally independents -
expressed deep dismay at the new cabinet. On May 21,
Karadaghi sighed that he "never thought I'd say this,
but this government is already far worse than
Ja'afari's!" (Comment: This comment, coming as it
does from someone who was a harsh personal and
political opponent of the Ja'afari government, signals
especially strong disappointment with the new cabinet.

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End Comment).


5. (C) Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a KDP
Politburo member and KDP President Masud Barzani's
uncle, told POLOFF on May 21 that the handover
procedures from the old cabinet to the new
administration had gone fairly smoothly. For all
that, he noted that he agreed with the conventional
wisdom that each successive Iraqi government was worse
and less competent than the one before - excluding
himself, of course. Zebari warned that al-Maliki was
already failing to hire a competent and professional
staff, and like Ja'afari before him al-Maliki was
hiring Dawa loyalists who perpetuated the problems of
sectarianism inside the Prime Minister's office. KDP
President Masud Barzani, according to Zebari, is also
not comfortable with this new cabinet. (Comment:
Barzani has long opposed the sectarian mentality of
the Shia Alliance, and has blamed both the Shia and
the Sunni Arab political groups for being unable to
compromise for the good of the country. End Comment.)

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And the Undecided...
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6. (C) KIU Council of Representatives (COR) member
Sami Atroshi shrugged when congratulated on his
party's allotment of a Minister of State without
Portfolio, and said noncommittally that the KIU would
watch to see how Prime Minister al-Maliki conducted
himself in the coming months. Atroshi commented that
the Kurdistan Alliance had made no effort to ensure
that all Kurdish parties were represented, and as a
result his party had a difficult time gaining
admission to Prime Minister al-Maliki to argue their
case. Atroshi said that if this pattern of
indifference toward smaller parties continues, al-
Maliki would face stronger challenges to his
leadership.

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Comment
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7. (C) The Kurds' opinion on al-Maliki's government
appear divided, not only between the PUK and the KDP,
but also across generations. The KDP seems to be more
cautious toward al-Maliki, given the contentious
history with former Prime Minister al-Ja'afari (like
al-Maliki, a Dawa member). The PUK, with its looser
structure (compared to the more rigid and tribal
structure of the KDP),seems to be more willing to
give al-Maliki the benefit of the doubt. Even within
the PUK however, the younger and secular people like
Tania Gilly and Hiwa Othman are markedly more downbeat
about the new administration. The new generation of
Kurdish politicians and advisers are significantly
less sentimental than the old guard, who at least
remember times when the major opposition parties were
all fighting against Saddam. Gilly and others have
repeatedly told us that real democratic change will
not happen unless the "old mentality" - personified by
people like al-Maliki - has been phased out.
KHALILZAD