KURDS HAVE MIXED REACTIONS TO AL-MALIKI GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001704 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV IZ SUBJECT: KURDS HAVE MIXED REACTIONS TO AL-MALIKI GOVERNMENT Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: On May 21-22, an informal survey of Kurds from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK),and Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU),all of whom have ministries in the new government, revealed a little optimism, but mainly deep misgivings about the quality of the new, permanent government of Iraq. While PUK members Fuad Ma'sum and Tania Gilly both expressed some cautious optimism for the al-Maliki administration, Presidency Council advisers and senior KDP members were more concerned. Rising leaders of the two main parties have privately alerted Embassy to the fissures within the Kurdistan Alliance, and indicated that the gulf between the two parties contributed to the weaker showing by the Kurds in this government. End Summary. -------------- Mixed Reactions: The Good... -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 21-22, an informal survey of Kurds from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP),Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK),and the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU),all of whom have ministries in the new government, revealed a little optimism but mostly deep misgivings about the quality of the permanent government of Iraq. PUK (and Council of Representatives) members Fuad Ma'sum and Tania Gilly expressed cautious optimism for the al-Maliki administration. Ma'sum said he was pleased overall with the quality of the Kurdish cabinet members, and dismissed former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's comments on May 20 that al-Maliki's government was no improvement on Ja'afari's as premature. (Comment: The headline to Allawi's interview in Al Sharq al-Awsat newspaper on May 20 read, "Allawi says al-Maliki's cabinet is just the same as Ja'afari's!" End Comment.) Ma'sum reiterated that he had known al- Maliki since 1992. They had met at an opposition conference, where al-Maliki had been Ma'sum's deputy in one of the committees. Ma'sum also disclosed that he had been on al-Maliki's master's degree review committee. Al-Maliki, according to Ma'sum, is a fervent anti-Baathist with a tendency to get angry too quickly. This will be a problem for al-Maliki, especially since the Shia Alliance has placed five "advisers" (read: observers) in his office. Ma'sum stated that al-Maliki would have at least one Kurdish adviser in the Prime Minister's office, at al-Maliki's own request. ¶3. (C) PUK member Tania Gilly also dismissed Allawi's criticism, sneering that a man who refused to even stay in the country he was purporting to lead should not be heeded. Although she did concede that it was too early to tell how good al-Maliki's government would be, she pessimistically assessed that it might not last all four years. Gilly added that the Kurds could have done better for themselves in the cabinet if they had truly negotiated as one unit. In a whisper, Gilly confided that even the PUK and KDP negotiators - Barham Salih, Fuad Ma'sum, Hoshyar Zebari, and Rowsch Shaways - had all negotiated for their own interests, not for either party or Kurds as a whole. Unfortunately compromise in Iraqi culture was seen as weakness and the Kurds' continuing willingness to compromise for the good of the country led to a perception that the Kurds were weak, Gilly said. Adding to the problem, she claimed, was the fact that Barzani insisted on his agenda even when it ran counter to larger Kurdish interests, making Talabani appear to be the one "betraying Kurdish rights" by compromising with the other groups. -------------- The Bad... -------------- ¶4. (C) In contrast, President Talabani's Chief of Staff Kamran Karadaghi and the Presidency's Media Adviser Hiwa Othman - both nominally independents - expressed deep dismay at the new cabinet. On May 21, Karadaghi sighed that he "never thought I'd say this, but this government is already far worse than Ja'afari's!" (Comment: This comment, coming as it does from someone who was a harsh personal and political opponent of the Ja'afari government, signals especially strong disappointment with the new cabinet. BAGHDAD 00001704 002 OF 002 End Comment). ¶5. (C) Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a KDP Politburo member and KDP President Masud Barzani's uncle, told Poloff on May 21 that the handover procedures from the old cabinet to the new administration had gone fairly smoothly. For all that, he noted that he agreed with the conventional wisdom that each successive Iraqi government was worse and less competent than the one before - excluding himself, of course. Zebari warned that al-Maliki was already failing to hire a competent and professional staff, and like Ja'afari before him al-Maliki was hiring Dawa loyalists who perpetuated the problems of sectarianism inside the Prime Minister's office. KDP President Masud Barzani, according to Zebari, is also not comfortable with this new cabinet. (Comment: Barzani has long opposed the sectarian mentality of the Shia Alliance, and has blamed both the Shia and the Sunni Arab political groups for being unable to compromise for the good of the country. End Comment.) -------------- And the Undecided... -------------- ¶6. (C) KIU Council of Representatives (COR) member Sami Atroshi shrugged when congratulated on his party's allotment of a Minister of State without Portfolio, and said noncommittally that the KIU would watch to see how Prime Minister al-Maliki conducted himself in the coming months. Atroshi commented that the Kurdistan Alliance had made no effort to ensure that all Kurdish parties were represented, and as a result his party had a difficult time gaining admission to Prime Minister al-Maliki to argue their case. Atroshi said that if this pattern of indifference toward smaller parties continues, al- Maliki would face stronger challenges to his leadership. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The Kurds' opinion on al-Maliki's government appear divided, not only between the PUK and the KDP, but also across generations. The KDP seems to be more cautious toward al-Maliki, given the contentious history with former Prime Minister al-Ja'afari (like al-Maliki, a Dawa member). The PUK, with its looser structure (compared to the more rigid and tribal structure of the KDP),seems to be more willing to give al-Maliki the benefit of the doubt. Even within the PUK however, the younger and secular people like Tania Gilly and Hiwa Othman are markedly more downbeat about the new administration. The new generation of Kurdish politicians and advisers are significantly less sentimental than the old guard, who at least remember times when the major opposition parties were all fighting against Saddam. Gilly and others have repeatedly told us that real democratic change will not happen unless the "old mentality" - personified by people like al-Maliki - has been phased out. KHALILZAD