SNAPSHOT OF DISPLACEMENT IN IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 001684

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AMMAN FOR REFCOORD KANESHIRO
CAIRO FOR REFCOORD CHEYNE
GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2016
TAGS: PREF PHUM SMIG SOCI KISL IZ
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF DISPLACEMENT IN IRAQ

REF: A) MOSUL 48 B) BASRAH 51 C) HILLAH 56 D) BAGHDAD
768

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD, REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: Displacement of Iraqis spiked following
the mid-Feburary bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra,
but has now leveled off to a slower overall rate of growth.
The main reasons for displacement include: death threats,
lack of access to education, discriminatory firings,
forcible expulsion, and kidnappings and killings of family
members. The best available figures suggest the scope of
internal displacement currently ranges between 14,607
families/76,638 individuals and 14,607 families/87,642
individuals (based on estimate of six individuals per
family) - still not a large share of the 28 million
population. Shia are displacing from Sunni majority areas
to Shia majority areas, and Sunnis are likewise displacing
from areas where they are the minority to Sunni-majority
areas. Christians are reportedly displacing from Muslim
areas in the South to Erbil and Ninawa, but this
displacement is not recorded in the available displacement
numbers. Rumors of large scale flight abroad by Iraqi
religious minorities are not borne out by information
available to the UN in neighboring countries. End
Summary.

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Overall Displacement Numbers
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2. (SBU) There are two available sets of statistics on
internal displacement. The first is compiled by the
Ministry of Displacement and Migration (MODM),the branch
of the Iraqi Government with the mandate to assist
internally displaced persons (IDPs). The second is
compiled by the UN-affiliated international organization
International Organization for Migration (IOM) based on
information received from its partners. The two sets of
figures had been diverging, with IOM estimates falling
significantly behind MODM numbers, but the trend has
reversed and IOM numbers are now catching up to MODM's.


3. (SBU) The latest IOM numbers of families taking refuge
in governorates as of May 17 are as follows:

Baghdad: 2,734 families
Samawa: (no information)
Wasit: 1,393 families
Maysan: 850 families
Muthanna: 463 families
Dhi Qar: 440 families
Basrah: 71 families
Karbala: 610 families
Babil: 410 families
Qadisiya: 200 families
Najaf: 1,392 families
Anbar: 2,554 families
Diyala: 976 families
Salah ad Din: 351 families
Kirkuk: (no information)
Ninawa: 319 families

overall total: 12,773 families (approx. 76,638 individuals
based on estimate of six individuals per family)


4. (SBU) The latest MODM numbers as of May 17 are as
follows:

Baghdad: 3,718 families
Samawa: 392 families
Wasit: 1,300 families
Maysan: 559 families
Muthanna: (no information)
Dhi Qar: 772 families
Basrah: 713 families
Karbala: 1,393 families
Babil: 550 families
Qadisiya: 580 families
Najaf: 1,600 families
Anbar: 300 families
Diyala: 1,258 families
Salah ad Din: 1,317 families
Kirkuk: 173 families
Ninawa: 32 families

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overall total: 14,607 families (approx. 87,642 individuals
based on estimate of six individuals per family)

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Trends in Sectarian Displacement
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5. (SBU) Detailed reports from MODM show Shia are
displacing from mainly Sunni areas like Baquba, Anbar
Province, and Salah ad Din Province to mainly Shia areas
like Karbala, Najaf and the Baghdad neighborhoods of Sadr
City and Shu'ala. Sunnis are likewise displacing from
mainly Shia areas like Karbala, Basra, and Thi Qar
Provinces to mainly Sunni areas like Anbar Province and the
Baghdad neighborhoods of Abu Ghraib, Tarmiya, and
Mahmudiya. Neither set of statistics records displacement
of non-Muslim religious minorities. A USAID/OFDA NGO
partner working with IDPs in the field reports there have
been Christian IDPs in Erbil since before the Samarra
events receiving assistance from the Kurdish Regional
Government (KRG). REO Mosul has also recently been
approached by Christian clerics reporting Christian IDPs in
Bartallah (ref A). USAID/OFDA has dispatched a partner NGO
to check into the situation in Bartallah.

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Upswing Since Samarra Bombing
--------------


6. (SBU) There was a sharp spike in internal displacement
following the mid-February bombing of the Golden Mosque in
Samarra and the resultant surge in sectarian violence.
Displacement has never returned to the lower, pre-Samarra
levels, but the data suggests that the spike has now
flattened into a gradual increase in the numbers of
displaced persons. IDPs displaced in the context of
military operations in places like Tal Afar and the Western
Euphrates Valley have tended to return to their homes when
the fighting settles down. IDPs motivated by sectarian
pressures have not. New sectarian displacement has
outweighed returns and kept the overall country-wide IDP
totals creeping steadily upward.

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Reasons for Displacement
--------------


7. (SBU) A USAID/OFDA NGO partner that is well and
favorably known to the USG and that works in the field with
IDP populations reports that the main reasons IDPs displace
are because:

-- they receive written or phone death threats
-- their children are unable to continue their studies
-- they loose their jobs due to sectarian discrimination
-- they are forcibly expelled without their possessions
-- their children are kidnapped for ransom
-- their family members are killed

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Comment
--------------


8. (C) Comment: The USAID/OFDA partner's information on
reasons for displacement is credible and consistent with
other reports we have been hearing (refs A, B, C, and D).
It is difficult to know for sure how many people are
displacing since many stay with friends and family or
occupy vacant buildings rather than setting up readily
visible tent cities. Our assessment is that IOM and MODM
figures cited are credible and are the best available
numbers. Neither the MODM numbers nor the IOM numbers
include any mention of displacement by non-Muslims, which
is hard to credit in the context of complaints we hear from
minority groups such as Christians, Mandaeans, Yazidis, and
Shabak. There are persistent rumors that religious
minorities are departing Iraq in large numbers, but we have
not seen any hard evidence to back up that assertion.
UNHCR missions in neighboring countries have not reported a
sudden upsurge in Iraqi religious minority asylum seekers
since the Samarra bombing. We suspect that displaced
religious minorities may either be escaping the notice of
the statistics keepers or displaced minorities are
concealing their religion for fear of persecution.
End comment.

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