AMBASSADOR OFFERS HIS CONDOLENCES TO ITALIAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001438 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PINS PNAT PTER KDEM KISL IT IZ SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR OFFERS HIS CONDOLENCES TO ITALIAN AMBASSADOR Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for Reasons 1.4 (a),(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 28, Ambassador offered his condolences to Italian Ambassador Maurizio Melani for the death of three Italian soldiers killed on April 27 in Nasiriyah. He further committed to sharing any investigative reports he receives from MNF-I on the incident. Melani conveyed that he did not believe the death would change either his Government's plan to reduce gradually its military presence or its plan to establish a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Dhi Qar. Melani mentioned his concern with the increasing instability in the south due to intensifying rivalries between Shia-dominated groups and growing Iranian influence. When asked his thoughts on Prime Minister-designate Nuri al-Maliki, Melani opined that Maliki seems to be a good choice as he has said "all the right things." He added that the next few weeks, however, will determine if Maliki can and will act on his words. END SUMMARY. -------------- CONDOLENCES AND STAYING THE COURSE -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador opened his meeting by offering Melani his condolences for the attack on an Italian convoy traveling through Nasiriyah that resulted in the loss of one Romanian and three Italian soldiers. A fourth Italian soldier remains in hospital in critical condition. The investigation thus far is leaning toward the conclusion that the cause of death was a homemade anti-tank Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP). (NOTE: EFPs are being used increasingly by Iraqi terrorists linked to Iran. These multi-charged, extremely powerful devices were developed originally by Hizbollah in Lebanon and are capable of penetrating the armor of a 60-ton Abrams tank. The armored vehicles used by the Italians in the south offer almost no protection against them. END NOTE.) Ambassador assured Melani he would share any information he receives from MNF-I on the incident. ¶3. (C) Melani stated that he believes that the incident will not lead to a change in his government's troop reduction schedule or PRT development plan. He thinks the progressive withdrawal of troops, 1000 in July and most by the end of 2006 (leaving a 700-plus contingent for a protection and training mission within the Italian planned PRT),will remain on track. The Italian PRT currently is slated to open in late May with a training workshop to be carried out in Baghdad next week. -------------- INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH -------------- ¶4. (C) Melani is worried about increasing instability in the southern provinces due to the intensifying rivalries among Shia political/militia groups. It seems to him that Sadrists (in particular, their militia Jaysh-al-Mahdi or JAM) are gaining ground in both Basra and Dhi Qar. Ambassador concurred with this concern and expressed hope that the new government will be able to disband the militias peacefully but also be ready to use force if necessary. When asked if the Italians in Dhi Qar meet with political leaders from all parties, Melani said yes and that Italian representatives had a positive meeting with local Sadrists the previous day. Melani said, however, he would not be surprised if Badr, or more likely JAM, were involved in the convoy incident, just as, if it had taken place elsewhere in Iraq, the likely culprits would be Sunni extremists or Zarqawi. However, up to this point in time, neither of these Sunni groups can operate effectively in the southern territory. Lastly, he said, JAM is spreading, with little discipline and no center of control or authority. -------------- IRANIAN INFLUENCE -------------- ¶5. (C) Melani was interested in Ambassador's thoughts on growing Iranian influence in both Iraqi violence and politics. Ambassador stated that Iranian influence is significant in both spheres and that we must keep this in check. He said, "We want Iraq to have good relations with its neighbors, but we also insist that it be independent." Ambassador said this is a message we need the international community to send to Iraq. We also need the international community to provide solid support to the new Iraqi government so it will not feel it needs to lean on Iran. Melani concurred with this message and both agreed that, BAGHDAD 00001438 002 OF 002 based on their conversations with Iraqi leaders, it seems a good many of them do not appreciate Iranian meddling. -------------- PM-DESIGNATE AL MALIKI -------------- ¶6. (C) Ambassador requested Melani's thoughts on al Maliki. Melani agreed with Ambassador that Maliki seems more decisive and an overall stronger leader than Ja'afari. Maliki also seems adamant about getting the government formed and continues to say "all the right things." Melani said that it is yet to be seen, however, if Maliki can live up to his words and form a national unified government, end militias, and appoint independent, non-sectarian leaders to the security ministries. KHALILZAD