FM ZEBARI: TURKEY MORE REALISTIC, SYRIA RIPE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000142

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2016
TAGS: PREL ECON TU SY IZ
SUBJECT: FM ZEBARI: TURKEY MORE REALISTIC, SYRIA RIPE FOR
REGIME CHANGE

REF: 05 ANKARA 7271

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: FM Hoshyar Zebari told the Ambassador January
9 that the Turkish government has become far more realistic
in its dealings with Iraq's Kurdish region. Zebari said that
Turkish trade with the region is now over $3 billion per
year. The Kurdish region has crossed several "red lines"
with no Turkish response, said Zebari. He added that the U.S.
and EU should exploit the call for regime change in Syria
made by former Syrian VP Khaddam. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
Turkey Still Concerned about KDSP and KCP Parties
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said that Turkish
Ambassador Unal Cevikoz recently complained about two
political parties in Iraq, which Turkey says are linked to
the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) (reftel). FM Zebari told
the Ambassador that Turkey's concerns about the Kurdistan
Democratic Solution Party (KDSP) and the Kurdistan
Construction Party (KCP) and their links to the PKK, though
valid, are overstated. The parties received very few votes
(around one thousand) in the December 15 election and pose
little threat to anyone. Zebari said Cevikoz believes that
U.S. inaction allows these parties to continue operating in
Iraq, despite Zebari's assurance to him that only the
Independent Election Commission of Iraq (IECI) can take
action to outlaw any party. (NOTE: Post unsuccessfully
pressed the IECI to delist the KDSP prior to the December 15
election. END NOTE.) Zebari said the GOI will take action
against the parties but only after the new government is
settled.


3. (C) Zebari stated that, despite their complaints, the
Turks now are more realistic in their dealings with the
Kurdish region. According to Zebari, the Turks realize that
the Turcoman population in Iraq is far less than the 3
million previously claimed. Turkish trade with the Kurdish
region now exceeds $3 billion per year, second only to trade
with Iran ($5 billion). Although the Kurdish region has
crossed several Turkish "red lines," Zebari said that Turkey
has not responded. (NOTE: Zebari did not specify, however,
what these "red lines" are. END NOTE.)

--------------
Syria Ripe for Regime Change
--------------


4. (C) Zebari characterized the statements made by former
Syrian Vice-President Abdul Khaddam about President Bashar
Al-Asad as very serious. Zebari said that Bashar would give
evidence to the UN inquiry into the death of former Lebanese
PM Rafik Hariri but would do so slowly. Zebari opined that
the EU and U.S. should exploit Khaddam's call for regime
change in Damascus. The Muslim Brotherhood, Zebari said,
will not necessarily take over the government. He predicted
that Iran will support Syria in this dispute.
KHALILZAD