POLITICAL BLOCS MOVING TO NEGOTIATE CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001352 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PNAT IZ SUBJECT: POLITICAL BLOCS MOVING TO NEGOTIATE CABINET MINISTER SLOTS Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Three days after the Parliament elected its Presidency Council and House Speakers, the four major political blocs have switched focus to the next step in the government formation process, the naming of a cabinet. They are forming committees to negotiate ministerial names with each other. Already we are seeing signs of competition: the Sunni Arab Tawaffuq bloc and the Iraqiyya bloc of former premier Ayed Allawi likely will clash over a Deputy Prime Minister slot, for example. We also anticipate tough talks about the Foreign Ministry, Oil and the security ministries. The process is only beginning and we anticipate it will be very hard to finalize the cabinet by Prime Minister- designate Nuri Kamel's professed goal of the first half of May. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Shia Coalition Vetting Candidates among themselves -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Shia Islamist Coalition SCIRI's Humam al- Hummudi, Dawa's Adnan Ali Al-Khadimi and Shia Independent Qassim Daoud told PolOffs on April 25 that the Shia Coalition has yet to form a ministerial negotiating team. Contrary to these conversations, Fadhila Party member Ammar Tu'ma Abd al-Abbas al-Hameidi told PolFSN said that the Shia Coalition cabinet 7-man negotiating team consists of Badr Organization's Hadi al-Amiri, Dawa's Faleh Fiad, Riyadh Abdul Hamza, Dawa Tenzim's Khudair Khouzai, Sadrist Salam al-Maliki, Independent Hussein al-Shahristani and SCIRI's Mohammed Taki al- Mawla. ¶3. (C) Shia independent Sami al-Askari provided us slight variations to al-Humeidi's 7-man government formation team with SCIRI Humam Hammudi and an unknown Fadhila member in place of Taki al-Mawla and Hadi al-Amiri. Al-Askari said that the Shia have yet to discuss sovereign ministries among themselves, instead focusing on such ministries as Health and Electricity. Al-Askari said the Shia would like to control either the Ministry of Interior or the Ministry of Defense (as would the Sunni Arabs). The Shia would also like to control the finance and oil ministries. He speculated that the Kurds would like to retain the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Finance. For his part, al-Askari would like to become Minister of Electricity. ¶4. (C) In an April 25 telephone conversation with PolFSN, Fadhila parliamentarian Mohammad Ismael al- Khuzai said Nadeem al-Jabiri will be the Fadhila Party representative when the Shia Coalition negotiates with the other political blocs. The Fadhila Party would like to take control of one sovereign ministry and one service ministry, specifically the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities. Fadhila's Al-Hameidi also said that Fadhila will seek to retain control of the Ministry of Oil. (NOTE: Many Shia contacts have insisted that Fadhila would lose control of this ministry based on its corrupt management of the ministry during the transitional government). -------------- Iraqiyya's Hopes and Desires -------------- ¶5. (C) In an April 25 telephone call with PolOff, Iraqiyya bloc official Medhi Hafedh said that the bloc's leader, former premier Ayad Allawi, returned to Baghdad in time for a 16:00 meeting at his home with Iraqiyya leadership (Medhi Hafedh, Safia Suhail, Adnan Pachachi and Omar Damluji). Hafedh reported that the meeting did not name a negotiating team. Iraqiyya member Safia Suhail echoed Hafedh's remarks and confirmed that Iraqiyya will hold a meeting on April 26 with its 25 elected members to name a team. She explained that Iraqiyya leadership could not decide whether to participate or not in cabinet negotiations because Iraqiyya members feel they have been betrayed by the Tawaffuq bloc over the Presidency Council and parliament top slots and do not feel that negotiations will result in BAGHDAD 00001352 002 OF 002 important cabinet positions being thrown their way. Earlier in the day, Iraqiyya member (Iraqi Communist Party) Mufid Muhammad Jawad al-Jaziry told PolFSN that Iraqiyya expects Ayad Allawi to head the National Policy Committee, get a Deputy Prime Minister position and four ministries. Suhail echoed that Allawi should get to head the National Policy Committee. She added that an Iraqiyya bloc woman should be named to the post of Deputy Prime Minister who manages a strategic and influential portfolio. -------------- Sunni side of the Street -------------- ¶6. (C) Top Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) official Ayad al-Samarai told PolOff April 25 that IIP's Ali Baban and CoR member Dr. Rafe'a al-Isawi comprise Tawaffuq's ministerial negotiation committee. IIP member Zafir al-Ani confirmed this on April 25 with PolOff and added that Tawaffuq had started its internal deliberations the April 24. Al-Ani forecasted that al-Isawi would be the Tawaffuq's nominee for Deputy Prime Minister. He added that the other key positions Tawaffuq wants are the Ministries of Defense, Foreign Affairs, Education, and Health. He predicted Saleh Mutlak, the Sunni Arab leader of the Iraqi Front for National Dialogue, would be the nominee for Minister of Foreign Affairs. Baban implied confirmation of this to PolOff on April 25. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Comment: The discussions about ministerial posts appear to be at the early stage, based on our contacts. We have seen little evidence that Prime Minister-designate Nuri Kamel has advanced very far himself in his thinking about who should have which cabinet jobs. In the Spring of 2005, the discussions to complete the cabinet nominations were torturous and only involved the Kurds and Shia Islamists. Bringing in the Sunni Arab Tawaffuq bloc and the Allawi group, and perhaps even Saleh Mutlak's Dialogue Front could make this year's talks even harder. Nuri Kamel told the local Arab media he hopes to complete the process by the second of week of May. There likely will be tough talks about who gets Deputy Prime Minister slots, the Foreign Ministry, Oil and, of course, the sensitive security ministries. Thus, we anticipate it will be very hard for Nuri Kamel to achieve his professed goal of finishing this in the first half of May. End Comment. KHALILZAD