SCIRI PM NOMINEE ADEL ABDEL MEHDI SLAMS JAFARI IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAGHDAD 001021

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SCIRI PM NOMINEE ADEL ABDEL MEHDI SLAMS JAFARI IN
PRESS


Classified By: COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (SBU) Summary: In a March 26 article in government
financed independent Al-Sabah newspaper (Iraq's most widely
read),SCIRI leader Adil Abd al-Mahdi noted that he would
not accept the Prime Minister nomination without "a full
and clear mandate from the Unified Iraqi Coalition and
other blocs" but firmly skewered the Prime Minister's
competence. He hinted that the UIC may still nominate
multiple new candidates for the post. Some of our other
Shia Islamist Coalition contacts think that Abd al-Mahdi
may yet revive his prime minister candidacy. The text of
the March 26 interview is found below. End Summary.


2. (C) Shia Islamist Coalition insider Qassem Daoud told
us March 27 that he thought Deputy President Adil Abd al-
Mahdi could make another try at overturning Ibrahim Jafari
as the Shia Islamist Coalition's candidate for the prime
ministry. Daoud pointed to the March 26 interview in al-
Sabah newspaper as a clear trial balloon from Abd al-Mahdi.
Daoud, who strongly supports Abd al-Mahdi's bid, said that
the Deputy President needs to get Shia Islamist Coalition
leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim on board, and he isn't yet.


3. (C) COMMENT: In the interview, Mahdi brought out
heavy rhetorical artillery, making clear Ja'fari is not the
man for the prime ministership, hinting at the fragility of
any leader's mandate, and noting that the UIC may still put
forward other nominees for the Prime Ministry. By positing
in the newspaper interview an even more complex scenario
(multiple new candidates from within the Shia Coalition),
he may be sending final notice to Shiites who are hedging
on the UIC parliamentary split. This may force SCIRI and
its religious supporters in the Shia community to solidify
the anti-Ja'fari front. END COMMENT.


4. (SBU) Below is the informal Embassy translation of the
March 26 al-Sabah interview. (Al-Sabah, an independent but
government financed newspaper is the most widely read in
Iraq. It's chief editor, Mohammed Abdul-Jabbar al-
Shabbout, is a political rival of Jafari's, and an active
member of the Islamic Democratic Trend Party. Headings are
added by the Embassy to provide summaries for the reader.

(U) BEGIN TEXT:

Introduction Explains UIC Still Debating
Between Mahdi and al-Ja'fari
--------------

"There has been much speculation . . . associated with the
issue of the United Iraqi Coalition's (UIC) nominee to head
the government and its implications inside the UIC and
among other political blocs. These opinions span 180
degrees, from complete rejection to full support. . . in
the middle you find those with reservations. The UIC's
final contest was set between Adil Abdul Mahdi, the
politician well known for his wisdom and struggle against
the dictator's regime for three decades, and Ibrahim al-
Ja'fari, who exhibits the same qualities and who emerged as
the winner at the end. When this result was reached,
discussions and differences surfaced among the Iraqi people
and Iraqi parties. . . driven by the result and by other
factors, including the delay in government formation. As-
Sabah has interviewed one of the contestants, Adil Abdul
Mahdi, whose frankness, objectivity, and accuracy help . .
. accommodate the concerns of the country and people."

The Race with Ja'fari
--------------

"Q: Why did you nominate yourself against al-Ja'fari?
A: I didn't.
Q: What happened then?
A: I was nominated by others within the UIC, as was the
case with other candidates.
Q: Why did the UIC resort to a vote and no agreement was
reached?
A: Some candidates withdrew. I didn't see anyone's
interests served by withdrawing, while my brother al-
Ja'fari didn't agree to withdraw.
Q: Why didn't you withdraw like the last time?
A: Because we see, but we could be wrong, that al-Ja'fari
faces two obstacles at this stage.
Q: Which are?
A: The lack of strong support in and outside of the UIC,
and the experience during his term in office that has
created a conviction that the country needs a change. Thre
are issues of (self interests),but we should not forget

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that nothing other than friendship and respect joins me
with my brother al-Ja'fari, and I was one of his greatest
supporters during the last nomination. We refused the UIC
candidate to be decided in any manner other than agreement,
and the same thing applies to the Bremer-Ibrahimi (UN
Special Advisor Lakhdar al-Ibrahimi) government. You will
find this mentioned clearly in Bremer's book, where he
talks of a meeting between Bremer and myself in which I
told him that if al-Ja'fari would gain the approval of the
Shiite House, then I personally and SCIRI would support
him, and we have no problem with that. So I believe we
have proven what we have said previously. As for hidden
intentions, only God can judge those. We have proven that
we conduct ourselves regardless of any personal interests.
Q: But you expressed support for him after he won the UIC's
vote?
A: That's true, and it is evidence again that these issues
are not personal."

Contradictions in Stance?
--------------

"Q: Do see some contradiction in this, have you changed
your opinion regarding the two conditions you mentioned?
A: No, there is no contradiction, if al-Ja'fari gains the
necessary support, we will not hesitate to back him.
There's a difference between what you believe in and . . .
rules and laws without which chaos would prevail. You
might not support traffic laws that make you stop at the
red traffic light, and proceed on green, or sticking to the
right side of the road. For your beliefs to become rules,
therefore, they should be accepted, and until this occurs,
you should abide by the current law and system.
Q: This can be said about acceptance, what about conditions
and special qualities?
A: Acceptance is an introduction to conditions and special
qualities. When you find that you enjoy acceptance among
others, this is an indication that they see you meet the
conditions, although this is not always true, but it is the
closest logic, otherwise, discussions and arguments would
go on endlessly. Therefore, if acceptance is found, we can
assume that conditions are met.
Q: But some say al-Ja'fari enjoys people's support?
A: This is dangerous. The UIC has participated in
establishing constitutional bases allowing the public to
express its opinion. The people voted on the constitution
before electing 275 parliament members and they are the
ones who represent the Iraqi people. A soccer player,
poet, or national leader could enjoy more support than any
minister, Prime Minister, or President. The political
process is not what a single person believes or a certain
sector believes, it is what the process's rules,
constitution, and law imply. They who will decide the form
of the coming intuitions are the 275 parliamentarians,
otherwise, we will go back to the mentality of coups, and
Iraq has had enough of these concepts that say the ARMY
wants me, or the nation wants me, or that I'm the candidate
of the U.S. or Iran. Political entities and their
representation in the parliament are the ones to make the
decisions, taking into consideration the will of the
people, and these decisions should never be personal ones,
we have the two-thirds majority, we have consensus, and
other rules approved by the constitution. This is what we
should deal with sincerely, and any other talk is
unacceptable."

I'm Not the "B" Team
--------------

"Q: What if al-Ja'fari decided to step down or was ousted.
Does this mean that you will be the replacement?
A: No.
Q: Why?
A: Because I'm not the substitute player. And as I
mentioned in my answer to the first question, I did not
nominate myself to be a replacement for brother al-
Ja'fari.
Q: Who is the replacement then?
A: He will be the one who gains clear support and meets the
demands of the current significant stage that should be
reflected by a PM and who can preserve the national unity
and the unity of the UIC.
Q: What if you were proposed to assume the post?
A: I will not accept unless conditions are met, which are
for the UIC's nominee to enjoy a strong and clear mandate
from his bloc and other blocs which allows him comfortable
support with the Council of Representatives.
Q: What are the personal aspects you criticize of al-
Ja'fari and believe you can offer an alternative?
A: This is not the place for criticism or self-praise. A

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doctor knows what qualities should be available in a person
so that he can be titled a doctor. The qualities for the
post of PM aren't a mystery and they are well known
throughout the world and in Iraq also.
Q: But some say the PM will have advisors assigned and
rules set?
A: All of this is true and is required with any PM, but can
a person other than a doctor be assigned advisors and have
rules set before him and then be asked to carry out a
doctor's duties? The appropriate candidate is the one that
gains the necessary approval which indicates that required
conditions are met, and this applies to brother al-Ja'fari
and any other. But if the candidate doesn't enjoy the
necessary support, then any talk of assigning advisors or
setting rules is only an attempt to escape taking the right
decisions.
Q: What could happen if the current situation continues,
meaning that al-Ja'fari refuses to step down, and the UIC
and other blocs refuse to change their positions? Can the
country continue without a real government, parliament, and
other institutions?
A: This situation cannot be accepted and it is the worst of
options. I have said previously that we face three
options: Either al-Ja'fari steps down, or other blocs
change their position, or the Council of Representatives
looks into its options according to the constitution and
election results."

What About a Stalemate?
--------------

"Q: Assuming that the situation remains the same, how can
the Council of Representatives make a decision? Are there
mechanisms for that purpose since the constitution doesn't
state a solution for such a case, especially that the UIC
is the largest bloc and should be the one to nominate the
PM?
A: If the situation remains the same with no side changing
its position and the blocs fails to come up with a solution
since no individual bloc can secure the two thirds majority
needed, in this case, and to preserve the unity of the UIC
and positive relations with other blocs, the UIC could
consider submitting a number of candidates from the
coalition to assume the post of PM, and this will allow the
UIC and its partners to have their say. This option . . .
is a constitutional solution which preserves the unity of
the UIC and preserves the participation of other blocs to
choose the PM of Iraq, all of Iraq, and such solutions will
guarantee that election results are taken into
consideration and allow for national participation to break
the deadlock.
Q: But the nomination of PM should follow the election of
the Presidential Council. So how can the process go ahead
in a way that guarantees the candidate supported by the
majority will reach the post?
A: Either new agreements are made in the case of the UIC
changing its nominee for PM and naming another candidate
through agreement within the UIC or by gaining a semi
unanimous approval which would make it hard for other blocs
to refuse him, or for the UIC to present more than one
candidate as mentioned earlier, or for other blocs to
abandon their objection to al-Ja'fari's nomination. If the
UIC was to present more than one candidate, a kind of
agreement could be reached before the voting process takes
place, or even an unofficial session for the Council of
Representatives can be held in which the candidate who is
being voted on is chosen before the actual vote according
to the constitution, or any other type of solution approved
by the blocs and representatives."

No Room for Individual Stands or Dictated Policies
-------------- --------------

"Q: Wouldn't that be seen as pressuring the UIC or imposing
an option other than what it voted for?
A: It could be seen like that, but the issue shouldn't be
dealt with as if we were fighting enemies. There are some
opinions inside the UIC and others outside it, and one of
the conditions by the UIC is for other blocs to accept the
PM and vice versa. We refuse and will continue to refuse
running the country in a way that excludes us or harms our
interests, and anyone speaking with this logic should
stress that we cannot run this country alone or according
to our interests only. We refuse oppression and
individualism in running the country whether it came from
us or from anyone else, we will oppose both with the same
vigor. All decisions on behalf of Iraqis should be
accepted by Iraqis or at least by their parliamentary
majority, or sometimes, by their components, but we should
not accept any dictated or individual stands that favor a

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certain party at the expense of others, therefore, we have
spoken of the possibility of changing the position within
the UIC or the positions of the other blocs. Any
inappropriate position taken by ourselves or others should
not be supported, and the right actions should be the
issues that unite us."

Prime Minister In Office Only as Long
as He Has Parliamentary Support
--------------

"Q: But this government term is four years?
A: This is not true, the Council of Representatives' term
lasts for four years, as for the cabinet and the PM they
could be ousted one day after formation, or may not gain
confidence at all, or on the contrary, it could outlive the
Council of Representatives if it gained confidence. We're
not choosing a Pope or a monarch, we are choosing a
government and a PM that can submit his resignation or be
subject to a no confidence vote at any event, and there was
an attempt to oust al-Ja'fari's government last September
and we strictly opposed the attempt since it would have
endangered the constitutional process. Nothing is sacred
or personal in all of this. Resignation is a tool in the
hands of the president, PM, or any other senior or junior
official; it represents a point of strength for the
official to defend his point of view when he enjoys large
support, or to allow others to exercise their points of
view when he fails to gather the necessary support for his
own position. This is the way governments are run, and it
was the way the government was run in Iraq before being
suppressed by authoritarian trends, where after that, the
resignation of an official became a sort of insult instead
of being a source of strength. We are confident that the
new men of Iraq are not of the authoritarian type, they
were the victims of the tyranny and suppression. We should
establish the tradition of fear from the official's
resignation, not from his authority. A successful official
is the one that empowers the post and not one who is
empowered by the post."

Q: If other sides have objected to the UIC nominee, can the
UIC object to others' nominees?
A: Why not, if the UIC has the logical reason to object to
any nominee, it can ask the political bloc to which the
nominee belongs to change their nominee for the post in
question. I believe the PM will not accept a single
nominee for each post, but will choose from among a number
of nominees to determine the suitable person for the post
and the mission to be performed. President Talabani has
said that if he was to be refused by the UIC or the Iraqi
Accord Front he would go back to Sulaimaniya. The issue is
about identifying the interests and specifying what would
be beneficial for the country according to the constitution
and law. If we accept these standards to be applied to
ourselves, then we would have every reason to apply it to
others, and the beneficiary of this situation at the end
would be the UIC, the rest of the blocs, and the Iraqi
people with all its components." End informal
translation.
KHALILZAD