SADRIST PARLIAMENTARIAN PREDICTS GOVERNMENT WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001005 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV KISL IZ SUBJECT: SADRIST PARLIAMENTARIAN PREDICTS GOVERNMENT WILL BE FORMED BY EARLY APRIL Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) In a March 22 phone conversation with PolFSN, Sadrist Council of Representatives (CoR) member and Kufa University professor Nassar Sagheer al Rubaie predicted a national unity government would be formed by early April. According to Rubaie, the main point of contention, the National Security Council (NSC),had been resolved, and so only a few issues remain open for discussion. The Sadrists wanted the NSC to be strictly an advisory body, he said. Otherwise, Rubaie argued, the NSC could undermine the democratically-elected CoR and, by extension, the political power of the Shia. ¶2. (C) Rubaie said the Sadrists still support Prime Minister (PM) Ibrahim Jafari's nomination for the premiership, despite misgivings some other groups have. The Kurds in particular, according to Rubaie, oppose Jafari's nomination because of his perceived inability to work with President Jalal Talabani and his stance on Kirkuk. ¶3. (C) Rubaie said that the Sadrists have no intention of joining the National Salvation Front. "This group was set up just to grab headlines," he declared. Rubaie dismissed the group, and said that, in the end, it will not affect Iraqi politics. ¶4. (C) Comment: That Rubaie so easily dismissed as ineffectual the National Salvation Front, an organization designed to leave the Sadrists out in the cold, could be an indication of overconfidence. Grand Ayatollah Ali al- Sistani wants the Shia Islamist UIC 555 coalition to stay together, a point on which the Sadrists seem to be pinning their plans. It remains to be seen if the rest of the government formation process will go in their favor. End Comment. KHALILZAD