GREECE/KOSOVO: SERB PRESIDENT VISITS ATHENS, LOOKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ATHENS 000371 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR/SE, EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2016 TAGS: PREL GR SUBJECT: GREECE/KOSOVO: SERB PRESIDENT VISITS ATHENS, LOOKS TO GOG FOR SUPPORT Classified By: AMB. CHARLES P. RIES FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On February 6 the Greek MFA gave read-outs to EU and Contact Group embassies of recent, separate visits to Athens of Serb President Tadic and Serb-Montenegrin President Marovic, who both came to attend the Socialist International meeting last week. Kosovo dominated the discussions, with Tadic predictably rejecting any form of independence, but also rejecting EU "carrots" to make Serbia more flexible in final status negotiations. Any incentives for Serbia, Tadic told the Greeks, should deal directly with the final status of Kosovo. Tadic said he favored early elections before UN Special Rep on Status Talks Ahtisaari completes his mission, saying this would keep democratic forces in power and give them a renewed mandate to negotiate. Other topics dealt with catching PIFWC Mladic -- Marovic claimed the GoS is doing all it can -- and the upcoming Montenegrin referendum. On the latter, Marovic said his proposal to require 55 percent of all votes cast to approve represented a compromise and had been accepted by EU Envoy Lajcak. Tadic also gave a January 31 talk at a prominent Greek foundation and underscored that Greece, the "leader and capital of the Balkans," is in a unique position to help solve Kosovo and bring stability to the region. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On January 29-February 2, Serb President Boris Tadic visited Athens, where he met with separately with President Papoulias, PM Karmanalis and FM Molyviatis. On February 6 MFA Balkans Director Michalis Christidis provided EU and Contact Group heads of mission the following read-out on this visit and the January 31-February 2 visit of Serb-Montenegrin President Marovic (both Tadic and Marovic attended the meeting in Athens of the Socialist International, which elected opposition PASOK leader George Papandreou President of the SI). Kosovo -------------- ¶3. (C) This was the most important issue discussed. Tadic reiterated GoS opposition to any form of independence for Kosovo, saying this would bring about a mass exodus of Serbs from Kosovo and would mean the establishment of a greater, monoethnic Albania or Kosovo. Tadic pressed the idea of decentralization, which he said should involve a distinct entity with majority Serb municipalities having horizontal links with one another and institutional links with Belgrade. This entity, which would not need to be territorially linked, would decide on matters of justice, police, education, religion and other matters. "Everything short of independence and a UN seat," Tadic told his Greek interlocutors would be given to the K-Albanians. ¶4. (C) Tadic rejected EU "carrots" to make Serbia more flexible and argued that any incentives should deal with the future status of Kosovo, not Serbia's EU perspective. Regarding the latter, Tadic said that there is "no real essence" to this perspective for the Serb public, and that it is very difficult for the GoS to explain leaving Kosovo in return for this. Direct incentives involve real decentralization, the Serb President concluded. ¶5. (C) Addressing the Kosovo issue in terms of the internal situation in Serbia, Tadic stated that if the notion of having lost the province prevails, then the desire to continue reforms will also be lost. To keep the momentum going, Tadic said he favored holding early elections before UN Special Rep Ahtisaari's mission is concluded. In that way, democratic forces in the country have a "good chance" to form a coalition and have a "renewed mandate" to conduct status negotiations. The Serb President feared that radical, pro-Milosevic politicians would take power if the elections were held after Ahtisaari's mission. Tadic noted that Serb PM Kostunica does not agree with this rationale, saying that the PM is "dreaming" that his standing will improve in the wake of the mission. Tadic added that this was the only point of dissent on Kosovo that he has with Kostunica. ¶6. (C) On a positive note, Tadic said he had a short discussion with Kosovar Albanian leader Hashim Thaci on the margins of the Socialist International meeting and both agreed that direct contacts between Belgrade and Kosovar Albanians would be useful. Cooperation with ICTY - Mladic -------------- ATHENS 00000371 002 OF 003 ¶7. (C) Tadic did not discuss the Mladic case at any length, but complained that it's wrong to draw parallels between recently captured PIFWC and Croatian national Ante Gotovina and Mladic. He claimed that the Gotovina is "still a national hero" in Croatia, whereas Mladic is an "enemy" of the political leadership in Belgrade. At a February 6 lunch with poloff, Serbian Embassy political counselor Vujicic maintained that the Croatian government knew where Gotovina was all along, but that the GoS "has no idea" where Mladic is. ¶8. (C) For his part, Marovic told the Greeks that up until 2002 "some military units" had helped Mladic hide, but claimed that there was no cooperation after that time. Marovic discussed a recent meeting of the GoS Higher Council of Defense that decided to more effectively coordinate efforts and take actions, such as monitoring the phone calls of Mladic's family. Marovic attempted to paint a picture of Serbia going out of its way to cooperate with the ICTY and said it would be "fatal for his country" if a decision was made by the EU to break off negotiations with SaM on a Stabilization and Association Agreement because of the issue. Montenegrin Referendum -------------- ¶9. (C) Tadic stated that he was ready to accept any result that was supported by 50 percent 1 of registered voters in Montenegro. That said, he was against the dissolution of the union and any further division of the Balkans because this would "create instability." ¶10. (C) On a related note, Christidis said that Serb-Montenegrin President Marovic, visiting Athens February 2-3, indicated that the only remaining issue was agreement on the qualifying majority needed for referendum passage. Pro-union supporters want at least 50 percent of total registered voters to approve, while pro-independence supporters favor only 40 percent (agreement has been reached on the need for at least 50 percent of all registered voters to take part). Marovic said he had proposed 55 percent of all votes cast and that this formula had been accepted by EU Envoy Lajcak. If the two sides cannot agree, Marovic argued, then Brussels should intervene and resolve the matter. Foundation Talk -------------- ¶11. (U) Tadic reiterated many of the same points in a speaking engagement organized by the well-regarded Kokkalis Foundation on January 31. He stressed the link between Serbian stability and Balkans stability and directly asked Greece for support during the strengthening of Serbia's political process. On Kosovo, Tadic emphasized that he does not back an independent Kosovo as a practical solution to the Kosovo question. This would lead to destabilization in the Balkans since Kosovo is "not in line with international law or justice." Tadic stressed that a Kosovo solution can be found if both sides see the situation realistically and are "willing to give something up." Tadic called for a process of democratization in which minority Serbs would retain control of their institutions and links to the Serbian State as "the only way to preserve our national historic heritage... which is a part of the Greek heritage." Tadic criticized the decision to bar him from Rugova's funeral, asking "If the President of Serbia is not welcome at the funeral of the president of Kosovo, how can we hope for a future of more wide-ranging co-existence?" ¶12. (U) Tadic described the three axes of Serbia,s foreign policy as the EU, the U.S., and Russia. Each of these axes, Tadic explained, has specific importance and Serbia needs their support to become more stable and to achieve its goal of becoming an EU member. Tadic laid out his plan to solve Serbia's outstanding political problems in 2006, and set up conditions for increased investment in 2007 which will lead to an EU membership in 2012 and NATO membership after that. ¶13. (U) On relations with Greece, Tadic said that Greece could use its unique position as "leader in the region" to continue to boost development in his country. He highlighted the more than one billion euros Greece has already invested in Serbia and noted that Serbia could continue to benefit from Greece,s support on many levels, specifically sponsorship for Serbia's EU membership bid, continued support for Euroatlantic integration, and infrastructure and technology investment. ATHENS 00000371 003 OF 003 ¶14. (U) On relations with the U.S., Tadic said development in Serbia requires continued strengthening of its defense sector, so U.S. cooperation is vital. He noted the importance of U.S. support promoting increased security, stability, values, and technology. Tadic noted that Serbia lost its role as a leader in defense after the Balkans wars, but it hopes to eventually participate in an international peacekeeping force such as NATO after finalizing reform in the defense sector. He concluded his speech saying he has "so many friends" in the U.S. ¶15. (C) COMMENT: The visit of President Tadic is important in that it reveals how desperately Serbia is seeking friends, especially "traditional" ones like Greece, in the run-up to the painful decisions that will have to be made on Kosovo. Tadic went out of his way to portray Greece as "the leader and capital" of the Balkans and key to stability in the region -- words that the GoG likes to hear. Greece does have a role to play in Kosovo, but, as we have told the Greeks, not on a high-policy level. The GoG's forte is in providing the economic assistance and trade/investment needed to buttress the post-status negotiations environment in Kosovo and the region. RIES