GREECE: EARLY ELECTIONS RUMOR LIKELY JUST THAT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ATHENS 001867 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV GR INTERNAL SUBJECT: GREECE: EARLY ELECTIONS RUMOR LIKELY JUST THAT, RUMOR REF: A. ATHENS 1805 ¶B. ATHENS 1691 Classified By: Ambassador Charles P. Ries for reasons 1.4 b & d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: According to "Eleftheros Typos," a strongly pro-government Athens daily, PM Karamanlis may be toying with the possibility of early parliamentary elections to coincide with local elections already scheduled for October 15, 2006. The paper suggests that with a weak opposition leader and strengthening economy, Karamanlis has every reason to call for vote after just two years in office. However, former FM Petros Molyviatis (a close confidant of the PM),as well as governing New Democracy MP Helias Kallioras separately indicated to us that they do not expect elections to be called until 2007. Given this and the Greek press' less-than-stellar reporting reputation (Ref A),we interpret 2006 general election rumblings as rumors. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) According to a veteran "Eleftheros Typos" columnist, PM Karamanlis may have broached the subject of early general elections at an informal (and somewhat unusual) dinner meeting with the President at a seafood restaurant outside Athens. (Note: Papoulias, as President, would be responsible for calling for a new mandate and early elections. End Note.) The July 6 editorial claimed the PM has every reason to launch a snap election soon, because he is at least 20 points ahead of opposition PASOK party leader Papandreou in popularity polls, the PASOK party remains in disarray (septel) and the economy is improving. The columnist suggested that with the national debt decreasing and revenue improving, Karamanlis would be able to count on a package of measures to increase farmers' pensions and supplementary benefits for retirees; cut taxes; and bring relief to lowest income families. This package could be announced in early September at the opening of the annual Thessaloniki International Trade Fair, giving the government a head start in a brief election campaign. ¶3. (C) Some interlocutors have suggested that certain senior PASOK members would support early elections, as they are unsatisfied with, and may wish to challenge, the Papandreou leadership following another anticipated defeat at the ballot box. However, prominent ruling New Democracy party MP Helias Kallioras told poloff that calling elections after only two years in power would be "tampering with the system," a strategy that would be out of character for "straight-forward" PM Karamanlis. Instead, Kallioras surmised elections would not be called before spring 2007 at the earliest. In the same vein, former FM Molyviatis, who we are confident knows the PM's mind on this, assured Ambassador that elections will not/not be advanced to the coming fall, but likely to October 2007, which is still before the March 2008 four-year horizon. ¶4. (C) Comment: While regular early general elections are part of the post-junta Greek tradition, never before have general elections been called with a government in power just two years. Moreover, the fiery education reform debate is expected to flare up again this fall (Ref B),creating an undesirable climate in which to hold elections for ruling ND. With such a weak opposition party, we expect early elections to be called, but more likely in 2007. RIES