PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT'S REELECTION OBSESSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000983 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ECON ETRD MARR KCRM SNAR PA SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT'S REELECTION OBSESSION PRODUCES BACKLASH IN CONGRESS Classified By: PolCouns. James P. Merz. Reasons: 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. President Duarte's obsession with reelection served as backdrop for the opposition's rejection of several of his significant initiatives before Congress. Neither side is keen on reaching a reconciliation with municipal elections only two months away. Our agenda hangs in the balance. The President remains hesitant about sending an agreement on joint military exercises to Congress fearful of provoking another broadside. While the Congress signed off on a U.S.-sponsored debt for nature swap, a bill to drop a fee on airline tickets is caught up in the politics of the opposition's face-off with the President. We are working hard not to pick sides in this fight, stressing U.S. policy objectives speak to Paraguay's overarching, nonpartisan interests. END SUMMARY. President Obsessed with Reelection -------------- ¶2. (C) President Duarte fervently believes he is uniquely qualified to lead Paraguay. In recent weeks, he has rarely missed an opportunity to convey publicly his desire for reelection. However, as Paraguay's constitution does not allow for reelection, he needs to win Congressional approval to amend it. The opposition commands a significant majority in the Senate and he's lost his thin majority in the House of Deputies. The opposition has made Duarte's apparent obsession with consolidating his power within the Colorado Party and pursuing reelection its rallying point. Public opinion polls suggest a wide majority of voters oppose reelection. Leaders within Duarte's own party are discreetly signaling they believe this a lost case. Duarte appears almost oblivious, blaming Paraguay's impoverished state on the current (post-Stroessner) Constitution and urging supporters in the interior to demand Congress amend it. Opposition Delivers Severe Blow to President's Agenda -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) The opposition in both houses of Paraguay's Congress delivered a blow to Duarte's agenda on 9/14. As anticipated, the opposition-controlled Senate voted down two significant loans. (NOTE: Congress must authorize new government debt. END NOTE) The first was a $32 million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) that was to provide capital to the second-tier public bank (AFD) so that it could continue to provide long-term financing to the banking system for on-lending to clients. The AFD, which only began to operate in May, has already exhausted its original $12 million. The failure to approve the loan leaves the AFD searching for alternative sources of financing, but there are few obvious alternatives in the short term. The second loan was a $186 million concessional loan from Japan for the upgrading of the Yguazu hydroelectric plant. The opposition defended its rejection of both loans maintaining it could not trust Duarte's government not to misspend these resources including by using them to fund campaign activities in the run-up to November municipal elections. ¶4. (U) Meanwhile, the defection of four Colorados gave the opposition the votes it needed (41 out 80) to 1) sign a document rejecting Duarte's bid for reelection, and 2) suspend for one year the personal income tax. (NOTE: Duarte had vetoed a prior House of Deputies decision to suspend the tax. The Deputies effectively overrode the President's veto with their vote on 9/14 and affirmed the postponement. END NOTE.) The income tax was instituted primarily as a tool to formalize the economy, and not as a major revenue generator, particularly in the short-term. The GOP estimated that only about 10,000 Paraguayans would be required to pay in the tax's first year. The real purpose is to encourage formalization by creating an incentive for taxpayers to demand legal receipts. Since the 2006 tax year began, there have been consistent complaints that the process of regulating the income tax has been slow, non-transparent, and subject to errors. These complaints were a major factor behind efforts by Congress to suspend the tax. Our Agenda in the Balance -------------- ¶5. (C) Both the President and the opposition are sensitive about our appearing to favor one side over the other. We seek to stay above the fray, stressing our policy objectives speak to Paraguay's overarching interest in developing stronger institutions, promoting development and increased trade, and combating transnational crime. Nevertheless, the spate between the two sides impacts our agenda. -- We won Congressional approval of a $7.4 million debt for nature swap (a U.S. Treasury initiative) in August by assuring opposition leaders expenditure of the funds would be strictly monitored by independent experts from the NGO community. -- The President remains reluctant to send to Congress the bill to renew our agreement on military exercise in 2007. Several months ago, nine deputies from the opposition Beloved Fatherland Party (PPQ) introduced a resolution rejecting a renewal of the exercises. They withdrew the resolution when it was apparent they did not have the votes to pass it. Opposition members of other parties have signaled support for an agreement renewing exercises. However, Duarte and his supporters are concerned introducing the agreement could provoke controversy and debate. (NOTE. Duarte is also worried about potential criticism by his neighbors in the region including Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and Bolivia, none of which looks favorably on the exercises with the U.S. END NOTE.) -- American Airlines pulled out of Paraguay in January after the Congress passed a tourism bill that included an article mandating a 6 percent fee for airlines to pay travel agencies. (The bill was approved in December 2005.) As part of an effort to court AA's return, Vice-President Castiglioni has worked hard with some Colorado Party Congressmen to introduce a bill to drop the 6 percent fee. The travel agencies are lobbying both the Colorados and the opposition parties to retain the fee. Beloved Fatherland Party Deputy Sebastian Acha, President of the Legislation Commission, has called on President Duarte to articulate his endorsement of the bill to drop the fee so as to give the opposition cover to face down pressure travel agencies when they vote similarly. He recalls that the Colorados supported inclusion of the fee and wants to guard against their blaming the opposition for passing a bill to eliminate it. -- A legal code commission headed by Colorado Party Sen. Badher Rachid and Beloved Fatherland Sen. Marcelo Duarte represents a rare instance in which the two sides are working together effectively. This commission's work also offers the best prospects to date to gain adoption of key modifications of Paraguayan law on money laundering and counter terrorism. The penal code reform proposal should be delivered shortly to the Congress for review which will serve notice whether cooperation between the two Senators extends to the two sides in this matter. -- Paraguay's Anti-Drug Secretariat -- strongly supported by the U.S. -- has made great strides to expand operations, seizing record levels of drugs and arresting major traffickers. It has requested supplemental funding to hire 50 new agents. Key opposition figures have signaled support but it has not come up for a vote yet. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Prospects for Duarte obtaining the votes to pursue reelection are remote. This is Paraguay and one can never rule out the possibility the Colorados could buy out the opposition but this would require a major reversal on the part of the opposition that is not conceivable at this juncture. Come early next year, Duarte's own Colorado politicians will become increasing focused on their own reelection prospects to the Congress and identifying a viable Colorado candidate to face down the opposition in 2008 Presidential elections. It remains to be seen how Duarte will handle this unwelcome dose of reality. Our challenge will remain convincing both sides our agenda advances Paraguay's overarching interests and not the objectives of any one particular party or politician. CASON