PARAGUAY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UPDATE, JANUARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000079 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC AND EB/IFD/OIA STATE PASS TO USAID FOR LAC/AA STATE PASS TO USTR FOR LYANG TREASURY FOR OSIA MAUREEN WAFER TREASURY FOR OTA WARFIELD, VAN KOCH, MILLAR COMMERCE FOR ITA SARAH COOK SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE NSC FOR SUE CRONIN NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PA CO SUBJECT: PARAGUAY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UPDATE, JANUARY 14-20 REF: A. ASUNCION 0032 ¶B. 05 ASUNCION 1384 ¶C. 05 ASUNCION 1329 AND PRECEEDING ¶D. 05 ASUNCION 0596 Classified By: PolOff Mark A. Stamilio, reasons 1.4(b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- -- New Poll Indicates Duarte's Popularity Remains Low -- GOP Officials Dismantle Lab Used for Pirated DVDs and CDs -- Anti-US Protesters March in Asuncion -- Oviedo Supporters Abandon Supreme Court Plaza -- Paraguay's Cooperation with Colombia Stalled -- Electoral Tribunal Rules in Favor of Duarte -------------- -------------- New Poll Indicates Duarte's Popularity Remains Low -------------- -------------- ¶1. (U) Results of a new poll conducted by the Opinion Studies Cabinet (GEO) and sponsored by news daily, La Nacion, indicate approval ratings of the Duarte Administration remain low. -- 35.6 percent of those polled affirmed that Duarte's governance is either "bad or very bad," compared with 36.3 percent disapproval in August 2005. -- 41 percent described the President's performance as average. -- 19.5 percent opined that Duarte was doing a good job, a slight increase as compared to the same poll's results in August, when Duarte earned only 12.4 percent approval. ¶2. (U) The poll results also indicate that a large number of respondents believe the Duarte Administration has little interest or capacity to find solutions to the country's problems. The poll also highlighted that systematic corruption continues to dominate politics in Paraguay, though some of the numbers reflected slight improvement. -- 36 percent of respondents described corruption as winning the upper hand over President Duarte, a decline from 43.9 percent in August 2005. -- 31 percent of respondents indicated they believe that Duarte is a part of the corruption problem, compared with 28.6 percent in August 2005. -- 20 percent felt Duarte was winning the fight against corruption, compared with 13.6 percent in August. -- 68.9 percent believed that Duarte governs in favor of certain sectors, as compared with 69.3 percent in August. ¶3. (U) Note: La Nacion is owned by Oswaldo Dominguez Dibb, a Colorado Party (ANR) politician and Presidential candidate for the upcoming ANR internal party elections in February. Dominguez Dibb will challenge Duarte for the ANR Presidency. End Note. -------------- -------------- GOP Officials Dismantle Lab Used for Pirated DVDs and CDs -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) On January 14, police officials and Economic Crimes Unit prosecutor Karina Almeda raided a lab used in the manufacture of pirated DVDs and CDs located in an apartment building in Ciudad del Este. The prosecutor seized four machines for making the pirated products and hundreds of cases for the CDs and DVDs. Officials arrested one individual in the case. -------------- Anti-US Protesters March in Asuncion -------------- ¶5. (U) On January 17, a group known as the Anti-Imperialist Platform sponsored an anti-US protest (ref A) with the participation of approximately 100 individuals, mostly students. The protest focused on disinformation associated with the alleged US military presence in Paraguay, as well as the Iraq war. The protesters gathered in a plaza downtown, where they chanted songs and held up signs calling for the removal of US troops. Some of the signs held by protesters likened US President Bush to Hitler. The protesters eventually marched towards the Paraguayan Congress building and on the way burned an American flag. Local police blocked the protesters from reaching the building housing Congress and the protesters eventually returned to the plaza from where they had begun. The protest was non-violent and no arrests were made. Bolivarian movement organizers had called for demonstrations before Paraguayan embassies throughout Latin America. MFA representatives indicated they had not received word of any noteworthy demonstrations from any of their embassies and were underwhelmed with the Asuncion protest. We understand organizers have called for demonstrations on the 17th day of every month. -------------- Oviedo Supporters Abandon Supreme Court Plaza -------------- ¶6. (U) On January 7, police evicted hundreds of supporters of imprisoned former general Lino Oviedo from the plaza in front of the Supreme Court building, which they had occupied since October 24 to demand Oviedo's release (ref B). The protesters abandoned the plaza peacefully after police presented a judicial order requiring them to do so. After some initial confusion, they relocated to a soccer stadium in Asuncion, which they are using as a base for staging additional protests throughout the city. On January 14, for example, they staged a peaceful demonstration on the road that leads to the airport, briefly blocking traffic. They vow to continue their protest until Oviedo is released. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The Duarte administration exercised patience and restraint in diffusing this situation. Burgeoning resentments of residents in the surrounding neighborhood for the Oviedo supporters provided the government a rationale to seek their removal. Likewise, the leaders of Oviedo's UNACE Party demonstrated good sense in maintaining order among adherents, including during their eviction from the plaza. End Comment. -------------- Paraguay's Cooperation with Colombia Stalled -------------- ¶8. (C) On January 17, Colombian political counselor Raul Sanchez told PolOff that GOP-GOC relations seem to have cooled in recent months, and advised that Colombian VP Santos will be visiting Paraguay in two weeks. According to Sanchez, Santos' visit is mainly personal (to visit friends), but he will push for movement in four areas of bilateral cooperation while he is here -- corruption/transparency, police reform, civil service reform, and security. Sanchez said the GOC is frustrated with the lack of GOP follow-up on bilateral cooperation initiatives, especially in the area of security now that the Cecilia Cubas kidnapping (ref C) no longer dominates the headlines. He said Santos will use his visit to gauge the GOP's political will to implement the security-related Action Plan the two countries signed last year (ref D),and whether the GOP is willing to pursue bilateral initiatives in other areas. With respect to security cooperation, Sanchez said the principal focus for now is creating a Paraguayan DAS (Departamento Administrativo de Seguridad, Colombia's internal security agency that combines FBI-type investigative functions with immigration and border control). ¶9. (C) Comment: Colombia and Paraguay continue to talk about cooperation, but not much concrete has happened beyond agreement to an Action Plan. As is not uncommon here, Paraguay has a tendency to respond to crises, as was the case in the aftermath of the Cubas kidnapping. As that tragedy recedes into the past, the GOP has dedicated less attention to the kinds of concerns about security that case prompted. -------------- Electoral Tribunal Rules in Favor of Duarte -------------- ¶10. (U) On January 18, Paraguay's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSJE) unanimously affirmed President Duarte's bid for the Colorado Party presidency in elections scheduled for February ¶19. Duarte's opponent for the party presidency, Oswaldo Dominguez Dibb, had challenged Duarte's eligibility on grounds that the Paraguayan Constitution precludes the President from discharging another position -- private or public. The TSJE ruled Duarte could run for the party presidency, but would not be able actually to serve as party president if elected. ¶11. (C) Duarte recently announced that he intends to serve as party president if elected. If he were to give up the party presidency, it would go to that individual elected VP by the party's 90-member Executive Board. Some of Duarte's supporters have suggested privately that he still intends to turn over the reins of the party presidency if elected. Others have indicated that he seeks to retain the option of serving as party president in case opposition factions within the party secure a majority on the Executive Board and elect a Duarte adversary as VP. CASON