PARAGUAY: THE OPPOSITION'S DEBILITATING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000077

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: THE OPPOSITION'S DEBILITATING
FRAGMENTATION

REF: 05 ASUNCION 729

Classified By: PolOff Mark A. Stamilio, reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) Summary: Paraguay's ruling Colorado Party has
dominated the country's political system for several decades
by means of a political machine that it sustains through
patronage and effective control of the Executive, the
judiciary, and numerous state-run enterprises. Pervasive
corruption, weak government institutions, rampant impunity, a
complacent electorate, and a history of authoritarianism
combine to perpetuate the Colorado Party's hold on power.
The country's relatively passive opposition parties lack
defining ideologies, vision, leadership, unity, and agendas
for change. They tend to operate within the same system of
political spoils that enables the Colorado Party to remain in
power, and in many cases agree to compromises with the
Colorados in exchange for favors, jobs and money. None of
the opposition parties is presently considered a serious
threat to Colorado Party dominance, leaving competition
within the Colorado Party of critical importance.
Ironically, the only current figure considered a threat to
Colorado dominance of the Executive is imprisoned coup
plotter Lino Oviedo, who is legally prohibited from running
for office. Colorado political dominance has been declining
in recent years (Duarte with just 37 percent of the vote over
a divided opposition and the Colorados lost seats in both
houses of Congress) but none of the opposition pygmies yet
measures up to the declining Colorado giant. End Summary.

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Colorado Party Dominance
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2. (U) The Colorado Party (Asociacion Nacional Republicana,
or ANR) was founded in 1887, one month after rival
politicians formed the Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Radical
Autentico, or PLRA). In power since 1947, the Colorados have
ruled for more consecutive years than any other party in the
world, including the Communist Parties in Cuba and China.
General Alfredo Stroessner dominated the party from 1954 to
1989, and used the party apparatus, the military, and the
bureaucracy to exercise control over the country. Since the
end of the dictatorship, the country has installed five
Presidents by constitutional means -- four were
democratically elected; one came to power by constitutional
succession. All five were Colorados.


3. (C) Despite an ongoing consolidation of democracy in
Paraguay, the Colorado Party continues to dominate the
country's political system by means of a political machine
that it sustains through patronage and effective control of
the Executive, the judiciary, and numerous state-run
enterprises. The machine functions nationwide, with
organization down to the neighborhood level, and a strong
presence in the countryside that exceeds the presence of
state institutions themselves. It confers jobs, assistance
and status upon those who demonstrate loyalty to the party
and its power brokers. Additionally, it enjoys access to
state funds and the proceeds of the country's two
hydro-electric dams (Itaipu and Yacyreta) and state-run
enterprises such as the electric, water and petroleum
companies (ANDE, ESSAP and PETROPAR, respectively). A recent
report indicates that Colorado Party membership has grown to
1.7 million, which represents more than half of Paraguay's
voting-age population.

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Societal Conditions Favor the Status Quo
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4. (C) Pervasive corruption and weak government institutions
leave ample room for the Colorados -- and, to a lesser
extent, power brokers from other parties -- to wield
influence by doling out jobs, favors and money in exchange
for loyalty and votes. Low respect for the rule of law
permits corrupt officials to act with impunity. Such
impunity naturally favors those in charge. The country's
civil society is still nascent; its electorate remains
complacent. Many Paraguayans view political corruption as
inevitable, and patronage as the only way to secure benefits
in an intrinsically corrupt system. Although the press is
independent and critical, its reporting is unprofessional and
biased, diminishing its credibility. As a result, many
Paraguayans routinely discount press reports of officials'
corrupt or illicit acts as nothing more than politically
motivated attacks.


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Debilitating Fragmentation
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5. (U) The 35-year dictatorship notwithstanding, Paraguay has
a long history of opposition politics; yet that history has
traditionally been one of personal rather than ideological
rivalries. The Colorado and Liberal parties, which were
founded almost simultaneously in 1887, were both "liberal" to
the extent they were ideological; but they were founded by
rival politicians. In more recent times, most parties,
including the Colorados and Liberals, have members whose
political views span the entire ideological spectrum, more
akin to interests than principles. The system of patronage
that evolved in the 20th century reinforces this trend, since
loyalty to ones patron, and the spoils one receives in
return, is based on personal ties having little or nothing to
do with political ideology. Many people are born into
parties like into religions. Others are recruited through
favors. Ideas have little to do with it.


6. (C) As a result of this trend, competition among rival
factions within parties is often more fierce than competition
among parties. At the same time, the lack of a defining
ideology prevents the opposition from formulating a coherent
agenda, beyond merely wanting to defeat the Colorados. In
many cases, opposition parties or factions agree to
compromises with the Colorados in exchange for favors, jobs
and money, eliminating defeat of the Colorados as a common
objective. Until a leader with broad national support
emerges to unite the opposition, its chances of defeating the
Colorados will remain slim. A figure coming from outside
traditional opposition parties, either a strongman such as
Lino Oviedo (currently in jail and ineligible for office) or
a figure from a new party, is the most likely eventual
challenger.

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A Possible Common Objective
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7. (C) Absent the emergence of an opposition leader with
broad national support, there appears to be one issue in
particular that could potentially improve the opposition's
chances of defeating the Colorados -- a constitutional
amendment requiring second-round ("run-off") elections in the
event that no presidential candidate receives a majority of
the popular vote. Many in the opposition see this as their
only hope of winning a presidential election; mathematically
speaking, that appears to be the case. President Duarte has
signaled his support for a Constituent Assembly that would
agree to an amendment allowing him to run for re-election.
In return for such a concession, it is expected that the
opposition would insist on run-off elections. However,
several of Duarte's supporters, noting that Duarte was
elected in 2003 with only 37 percent of the vote, have told
EmbOffs that the Colorado Party remains opposed to run-off
elections out of genuine concern that the opposition could
defeat the Colorados. Meanwhile, the opposition has
announced that it opposes a Constituent Assembly, seeking to
deny Duarte any prospect of being re-elected. (Note: The
Constitution stipulates the need for two-thirds support in
both houses of Congress as a prerequisite to call for a
Constituent Assembly. Given the fact that the Colorados lack
even a simple majority in either house, they will need to win
significant opposition support to gain approval for a
Constituent Assembly. End Note.)

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The Liberal Party -- Content Playing Second Fiddle?
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8. (C) The Liberal Party, founded in 1887, is Paraguay's
oldest and second largest political party after the
Colorados. It dominated the political system from 1904 to
1940, during which time 21 different Liberal governments
ruled the country. However, the party has not governed
Paraguay since 1940. While some of its leaders espouse
traditional "liberal" values, including respect for the
rights of individuals, open societies and free markets, and,
as such, look generally favorably on good relations with the
U.S., as a party it is not governed by a coherent ideology.
Rather, like the Colorado Party, it has members who advocate
policies that span the entire ideological spectrum. Over the
years, it has established a party structure that extends
across the entire country, with affiliation largely based on
familial ties. Persons born into Liberal families generally

remain Liberals throughout their lives, even if they come to
espouse policies that might associate them more closely with
another political party. Although the party has an extensive
presence nationwide, it is strongest in the cities and among
more educated and wealthier segments of the population.


9. (C) While the Liberal Party barely polled second to the
Colorados in the 2003 elections, it is presently not
considered a serious threat to Colorado Party dominance. Its
current leader is Blas Llano, a member of the Chamber of
Deputies who was elected PLRA president in July 2005. Llano
has not proven effective in uniting the party's disparate
factions, much less in establishing a platform to challenge
the Colorados. In recognition of this fact, Llano is seeking
to form an alliance with other opposition parties in
preparation for the 2008 national elections. Though the
Liberals have 12 seats in the Senate (out of a total of 45)
and 21 in the Chamber of Deputies (out of a total of 80),
these congressmen are divided among three factions. Last
June, three Senators from the two smaller factions allied
themselves with the governing Colorado Party on a number of
controversial decisions, mostly pertaining to key political
appointments. While the dissidents' defection provoked a
strong rebuke from the PLRA leadership, many viewed it only
as a more blatant manifestation of the party's readiness to
compromise with the Colorados in exchange for favors, jobs
and money. The Liberals can boast no strong leader with
broad national support. Few believe that the PLRA is
prepared to undertake the kind of structural reforms required
to attack Paraguay's system of political spoils, having grown
all too comfortable enjoying the benefits of the current
system founded on deals with the Colorados.

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The Social-Christian Beloved Fatherland Party
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10. (C) The Beloved Fatherland Party (Patria Querida, or PQ)
was founded as a social-Christian movement in 2001 by
businessman Pedro Fadul. The product of mostly Catholic
leaders, it lacks a firm ideological core. It mixes a
center-right and business-oriented core with more leftist
factions, and sometimes takes a populist stance on social
issues to attract more support from the poor. Its followers
are mostly urban professionals and middle class. Few of its
leaders have long political experience, except a handful who
transferred over from the National Encounter Party (Partido
Encuentro Nacional, or PEN),a social-democratic party on the
decline. PQ stresses anti-corruption and good governance as
its driving themes. It is generally pro-U.S., but has
occasionally shown a readiness to adopt, opportunistically, a
critical stance with respect to President Duarte's policies
toward the U.S. (e.g., on the visit of SECDEF Rumsfeld or
military exercises with the U.S.) in pursuit of wider popular
support.


11. (C) In 2003, PQ surprised many political observers by
placing third in national elections, only a few percentage
points behind the Liberal Party. It has seven seats in the
Senate and ten seats in the Chamber of Deputies. When
President Duarte assumed power in 2003, PQ joined the other
opposition parties in signing a pact with the Colorados to
advance reform. As part of that pact, PQ alone supported the
Colorado Party's successful bid to adopt tax reform
legislation, incuding introduction of a personal income tax
and other steps to advance formalization of Paraguay's
economy. Much of the media and the opposition, however,
characterized this law as harmful to the poor --
notwithstanding the fact that its most onerous provisions are
directed at a relatively small circle of wage earners who can
best be described as upper-middle class -- producing a
backlash for PQ and its credentials with Paraguay's poor.
PQ's leaders are insistent on taking a long view to expanding
their base and establishing their credibility. Considered an
Asuncion-based party, they are working hard to establish a
presence in the interior of the country. Whereas the
Liberals and the National Union of Ethical Citizens Party
(Union Nacional de Ciudadanos Eticos, or UNACE, Lino Oviedo's
creation) are keen to form an alliance in a bid to challenge
the Colorados, PQ remains intent on establishing its own
identity and is disinclined to bet its future on an alliance
with the Liberals, whom it regards as guilty of many of the
Colorado's same sins.

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Lino Oviedo's UNACE Party

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12. (U) UNACE arose in 2002 when convicted coup plotter Lino
Oviedo and a majority of his backers bolted from the Colorado
Party. UNACE did remarkably well in the 2003 elections
considering that its leader, Oviedo, was barred from running
for office and the party equivocated for months whether to
ally with the PLRA in the presidential contest or field its
own candidate. It elected seven senators and ten deputies to
the national Congress, but two of its senators and two of its
deputies have since returned to the Colorado fold, including
the former leader of UNACE's Senate bench. UNACE competes
with the Colorado Party for votes in the countryside, and its
deputies hail from seven of the country's 17 interior
departments. Although many observers assert that UNACE's
membership is on the decline, the party's leaders claim that
it is on the rise, and they interpret the results of recent
polls to suggest that as many as one-third of the other
parties' registered members would vote for Oviedo if he were
permitted to run for President in 2008.


13. (C) Since his return to Paraguay from self-imposed exile
in June 2004, Oviedo is serving a ten-year sentence for his
role in a 1996 coup attempt. He faces additional charges
related to the March 1999 assassination of Vice President
Luis Maria Argana and the subsequent deaths of several
student protesters. Separately, while Commander of the Armed
Forces during the Presidency of Juan Carlos Wasmosy, Oviedo
was long rumored to be involved in drug smuggling and other
illicit activities. Despite the legal proceedings against
him, Oviedo recently placed first (with 17 percent),ahead of
Duarte (with only 4.9 percent),in an opinion poll about
potential presidential candidates. There is no close
third-place contender. Oviedo is charismatic, and a tireless
campaigner who spreads his ill-gotten wealth around the
countryside. He has "down home" appeal and an innate ability
to rally support, effectively using his native command of
Guarani, the first language of much of Paraguay's population
in the interior. Much of the party rank and file exhibits
fierce loyalty to him. If he were released from jail, he
would mount a serious challenge to Duarte and the Colorados.



14. (C) Senator Enrique Gonzalez Quintana presently serves as
UNACE party president. In public, Gonzalez toes the party
line, but the former leader of UNACE's Senate bench, Senator
Alejandro Velazquez, recently intimated that Gonzalez is not
completely loyal to Oviedo. Nonetheless, securing Oviedo's
release from jail and defeating the remaining charges against
him remain the party's singular focus. UNACE is generally
pro-U.S., and many of the party's members profess loyalty to
the United States. However, the party's recent flirtations
with Hugo Chavez's Venezuela (reftel) suggest that Oviedo's
desire to align his party with the U.S. may be more a matter
of political expediency (i.e., he recognizes that he will
need U.S. support to be successful) than close ideological
affinity.

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The Social-Democratic Country in Solidarity Party
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15. (U) The Country in Solidarity Party (Partido Pais
Solidario, or PPS) was founded in 2000. It identifies itself
as a small, progressive, social-democrat oriented
organization, but, in reality, is more socialist than
social-democrat. In line with its socialist leanings, the
party's leaders are, at times, highly critical of the USG,
particularly in the area of foreign policy. The party's
following is limited almost exclusively to Asuncion, where
its president once served as mayor. The party elected two
senators and two deputies to the national Congress in 2003.


16. (C) PPS is currently split over whether or not to ally
itself with the government, mostly as a product of the egos
and ambitions of its key leaders. Historically, the party's
leaders opposed the ruling Colorados. More recently, the
party's president, Senator Carlos Filizzola, and his Senate
cohort, Jose Morinigo, have aligned themselves more closely
with the Colorados in order to secure Filizzola's bid to
become President of the Senate last July. Rafael Filizzola
(Carlos' cousin) and his cohort in the Chamber of Deputies,
Lino Aguero, remain staunchly opposed to the Colorados'
agenda. Rafael Filizzola recently announced his candidacy
for mayor of Asuncion. Meanwhile, Carlos Filizzola has his
sights set on the Presidency. Although he does not enjoy the
national support needed to propel him to the Presidency,
recent polls suggest that his incumbency as President of the

Senate has boosted his image and name recognition. Many
allege that his deals with the Colorados have stripped him of
his integrity, however, and hurt his credibility as a
national leader.

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The Declining National Encounter Party
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17. (C) The National Encounter Party was founded in Asuncion
in 1991. It began with the stated goal of building a freer,
more just and fraternal society. PEN's articles describe its
political philosophy as independent and a purveyor of
democratic principles of participation, pluralism and
decentralization.


18. (C) PEN was once considered the "third option" to the
Colorado and Liberal parties. However, its electoral
strength was whittled down to almost nothing by the stigma of
having been a coalition partner with the Colorados during the
Gonzalez Macchi administration. In 2000, most of its
adherents joined PQ or PPS, including Carlos and Rafael
Filizzola. Its only remaining elected official at the
national level is Senator Emilio Camacho, who is rumored to
be leaving the Senate for a possible judicial appointment,
and perhaps leaving PEN altogether. Camacho's departure
would effectively destroy the party. PEN may not survive the
next election.

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Comment
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19. (C) It appears likely that the Colorado Party will
continue to dominate Paraguay's political system for the
foreseeable future, and that the opposition will remain weak
for its lack of a defining ideology, vision, strong
leadership, unity and an agenda for change. The opposition's
only immediate prospect for defeating the Colorados lies in
its uniting. Its current disinclination to agree to a
Constituent Assembly that would establish an electoral system
based on run-off elections places primacy on forging an
alliance in the run-up to the 2008 elections. To date,
however, the opposition has demonstrated significant
difficulty in uniting internal factions, much less forging an
alliance across party lines, suggesting that the immediate
prospects for a broad-based opposition alliance remain long
for the time being. Despite decades of authoritarianism and
a remarkable history of failure at everything but staying in
power, the Colorados don't yet face a strong challenger.
This makes internal Colorado elections vital. Given
continuing public disgust at economic misery and other
problems, the Colorados should be ripe for defeat. In
politics, however, you can't beat something with nothing; the
opposition has yet to notice.
CASON