PARAGUAY'S INCIPIENT INSURGENCY: A KEY MOMENT FOR

S E C R E T ASUNCION 000503

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA AND DS/DSS/ITA
STATE PASS TO USAID LAC/AA
POSTS FOR RSO
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
JOINT STAFF FOR J5 LTC SCOTT DAVIS
NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR MARR MASS PA CO VE CU
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY'S INCIPIENT INSURGENCY: A KEY MOMENT FOR
U.S. ENGAGEMENT

REF: A. ASUNCION 404

B. ASUNCION 264

C. ASUNCION 210 AND PRECEDING

D. 05 ASUNCION 1325 AND PRECEDING

E. 05 ASUNCION 1119 AND PRECEDING

F. 05 ASUNCION 1101

Classified By: PolOff Mark A. Stamilio, reasons 1.4(b),(c) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) The involvement of militant members of the leftist
Free Fatherland Party (Partido Patria Libre, or PPL) in two
high-profile kidnappings (refs D and E),the murders of two
policemen (refs C and F),and an assault on a rural police
station (ref A) are evidence of a small militant leftist
movement in Paraguay. The revelations of a self-described
former PPL member who surrendered to authorities on May 1
could provide further insight into the armed group's size,
composition, capabilities, objectives, and foreign (including
FARC) ties. There are indications that Venezuela and Cuba
are playing a role in fomenting radical leftist ideology in
the Paraguayan countryside. The GOP's response to the
apparent guerrilla-like threat has been mixed and constrained
by the lack of a plan and resources. While the situation
calls for serious attention, we do not believe the GOP is
immediately threatened by a widespread insurgency. However,
given the newness and fragility of Paraguay's democracy, and
a weak economy and deep poverty, this incipient insurgency is
another potential source of instability. The GOP seems to be
awakening to the threat, both due to PPL activities and the
regional context, including Venezuelan and Cuban actions in
Bolivia. It behooves the U.S. both to consider ways to
provide tailored assistance to address the militant threat
and to engage Paraguay politically and economically to
strengthen increasing concerns about Venezuela and Cuba. End
Summary.

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The Leftist PPL's Militant Activity
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2. (SBU) The investigation of the 2004 kidnapping and
subsequent murder of Cecilia Cubas (ref D) pinned
responsibility on militant members of the leftist Free
Fatherland Party (Partido Patria Libre, or PPL) for that
crime and the 2001 kidnapping of Maria Edith Bordon de
Debernardi (ref E). Email traffic between the PPL leader who
masterminded the Cubas kidnapping and FARC leader Rodrigo
Granda established solid evidence of FARC involvement in PPL
activities. More recently, witnesses identified PPL members
as the assailants in the ambush-style murders of rural
policemen in the Department of Canindeyu in August (ref F)
and the Department of Concepcion in February (ref C),and an
armed assault on a rural police station in Concepcion in
April (ref A). The assailants in both ambushes and the
assault on the police station were heavily armed and dressed
in camouflage battle fatigues. Some were equipped with
sophisticated body armor. The February murder followed the
arrests of several PPL members who were transporting
explosives, ammunition, equipment, and supplies under the
cover of a small campesino organization based in northern San
Pedro Department and known as the Northern Campesino
Organization (Organizacion Campesina del Norte, or OCN).

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Revelations of an Apparent PPL Member
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3. (S) On May 1, Ruben Dario Bernal, a 26-year-old PPL
member, surrendered to Paraguayan authorities in the
Department of Concepcion. He was wearing camouflage fatigues
and carrying a .762-caliber rifle and a 9mm pistol when he
surrendered. He claims he surrendered because he feared
other members of the armed PPL faction were going to kill him.


4. (S) Bernal is cooperating with authorities. He informed
them that the armed faction's leader is Osvaldo Villalba,
brother of Carmen Villalba, a PPL militant incarcerated for
her role in the Debernardi kidnapping, and that the faction's
members include Manuel Cristaldo Mieres and Magna Meza, PPL
members involved in the Cubas kidnapping and murder. He
confessed that the faction was responsible for the murders of
the policemen in Canindeyu and Concepcion, and the April
assault on the Concepcion police station. Additionally, he
provided authorities information that led them to a cache of
explosives near where the assault on the police station
occurred.


5. (S) Bernal told authorities that the armed faction is
capable of mobilizing approximately 150 people, and that
their arsenal includes bazookas, anti-aircraft rocket
launchers, and grenades. He said they are well trained and
preparing an attack on a military detachment or base. He
reported that Colombian-national FARC members are training
them in Paraguay on a regular basis. Their training includes
indoctrination in radical ideology, and the group's members
advocate "the armed struggle against the imperialism that
oppresses socialist ideas."


6. (S) Comment: Questions have been raised about Bernal's
motives and bona fides, and Post is following his debriefing
very closely. He appears credible and well informed about
PPL activities. EmbOffs have confirmed that members of the
FARC are involved in training the militant PPL faction in
Paraguay, and we and the GOP are energetically following up
leads from Bernal, who has confirmed information obtained
from others. End Comment.

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Other Foreign Involvement
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7. (S) In addition to the FARC's involvement primarily in
training PPL militants, there are indications that Venezuela
and Cuba are playing a role in fomenting radical leftist
ideology in the Paraguayan countryside. Sensitive reporting
indicates Venezuela has provided PPL members with political
training, and paid for PPL members to travel to Venezuela and
then cross the border into Colombia for FARC training.
Additionally, evidence recovered in searches of PPL members'
belongings revealed that unknown parties in Venezuela wired
at least USD 90,000 to the PPL's military wing (ref B). A
portion of the money was used to buy the explosives seized in
Concepcion in February. Anecdotal evidence and the presence
of Cuban doctors in areas of greatest unrest suggest that
Cuba could also be fomenting radicalism.

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The GOP's Mixed Response
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8. (SBU) The GOP's response to the apparent guerrilla-like
threat has been mixed. Military Forces Commander General
Kanazawa attributes the violence in the countryside to armed
bandits, as opposed to an incipient guerrilla movement.
Meanwhile, Attorney General Candia is convinced Paraguay
faces a movement armed, trained, and set upon overthrowing
the government. A number of lower-ranking military

commanders and the police share Candia's concern about the
threat Paraguay faces in the interior and its ill
preparedness in meeting that threat.


9. (C) The GOP deployed military and police to Canindeyu and
Concepcion in response to the murders and police station
assault, but those deployments produced little in the way of
results beyond merely following the assailants' already cold
trails. A general lack of resources -- such as
reconnaissance aircraft, fuel, and food for deployed
personnel -- and a lack of familiarity with the terrain has
hampered GOP efforts. The GOP does not appear to have a
long-term plan for dealing with the threat.


10. (C) The GOP's ineffective response and the security
forces' history of corruption and incompetence has left the
public skeptical about the gravity of the threat. Some are
suspicious that the government is concocting, or at least
exaggerating, the threat to divert attention from the
country's other problems. Others claim it is a pretext for
requesting additional resources for the military at a time
when the uniformed services are under attack for supposedly
threatening opposition members of Congress for blocking a
vote on military promotions in December. Most consider
general public security to be a higher priority for the
police and military than fighting a violent but relatively
small and isolated militant leftist movement.

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The U.S. Role
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11. (C) This situation represents an opportunity for the U.S.
to curb Venezuelan and Cuban influence in the region by
providing the GOP tailored assistance to address the militant
threat. Vice President Castiglioni has appealed for our
assistance. In reply, we should stress the need for the GOP
to respond to the threat sooner rather than later by
acquiring resources, particularly in the way of weapons it
will need to meet this threat. We should also leverage the
GOP's request for our assistance to shore up support for
continued approval of U.S.-Paraguayan military exercises and
protections for U.S. military personnel who participate in
those exercises. It is possible that personnel and other
resources present in Paraguay for such exercises could assist
the GOP with efforts to locate and apprehend members of the
militant PPL faction believed to be hiding in remote,
generally inaccessible areas of the country. Combined with
events in Bolivia, the increasingly public PPL threat may
also deepen GOP distrust of Venezuela and Cuba. Increased
U.S. political and economic engagement could consolidate and
accelerate this trend.

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Comment: Threat Real but Incipient
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12. (C) An effort is under way, with foreign backing, to
establish a militant leftist movement in Paraguay, but we
should be careful not to exaggerate the threat. Paraguay
does not have a long history of radical leftist activity, and
the PPL's military wing, while violent, is relatively small
and isolated in pockets of the countryside. Post does not
see a revolution in Paraguay's immediate future. On the
other hand, we need to begin exploring ways to help the GOP
deal with the threat that does exist, and consider ways such
assistance might advance U.S. interests in curbing Venezuelan
and Cuban influence and fostering the strong
military-to-military relations we have enjoyed in Paraguay
for many years. Post is seeking increased direct assistance

for the GOP for pursuing the PPL through DoD and other
channels. In addition, Department should seek ways to
increase political and economic engagement with the GOP to
consolidate and accelerate growing GOP suspicions of
Venezuela and Cuba.
JOHNSON