PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT REPLACES MILITARY LEADERS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000445

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE
NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR KDEM PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT REPLACES MILITARY LEADERS IN
ATTEMPT TO BREAK STALEMATE WITH OPPOSITION

REF: A. ASUNCION 0371 AND PRECEDING

B. ASUNCION 0001

C. 05 ASUNCION 1560

D. 05 ASUNCION 1548

E. ASUNCION PA IIR 6 875 0030 05

F. ASUNCION PA IIR 6 875 0014 05

Classified By: PolOff Mark A. Stamilio, reason 1.4(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: On April 23, President Duarte replaced the
commanders of the three military services and several other
senior military leaders, including Colonel Heriberto Galeano,
the controversial Commander of the Presidential Escort
Regiment. He did not replace Military Forces Commander
General Jose Kanazawa. The leadership changes were a belated
response to the opposition's call for the removal of those
responsible for a December Military Forces communiqu that
criticized the Senate for delaying a vote on senior military
and police promotions. Duarte also is seeking to break a
broader stalemate between his administration and the
opposition that, for the last two months, has precluded
movement on key legislation. The opposition has described
the changes as insufficient to address their concerns or meet
their demands. End Summary.

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Who's In, Who's Out
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2. (U) On April 23, President Duarte replaced Army Commander
Lieutenant General Ruben Alviso, Air Force Commander General
Roberto Vera, and Navy Commander Rear Admiral Miguel
Caballero. Alviso and Vera will be forced to retire.
Caballero, on the other hand, will replace Army Lieutenant
General Leonor Godoy as head of the Military Forces Logistics
Command. Colonel Heriberto Galeano, the controversial
Commander of the Presidential Escort Regiment (REP),will
leave the REP to command the Army's 1st Infantry Division.
Lieutenant Colonel Juan Jose Casaccia, the head of Duarte's
REP personal security detachment, will replace Galeano as REP
Commander. Duarte did not replace Military Forces Commander
General Jose Kanazawa.

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Political Stalemate Likely to Continue
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3. (SBU) The leadership changes were a belated response to
the opposition's call for the removal of those responsible
for a December Military Forces communiqu that criticized the
Senate for delaying a vote on senior military and police
promotions and generated a firestorm of debate (ref D). The
opposition interpreted the communiqu to be a threat and a
challenge to the Legislative Branch's authority and
independence. Duarte eventually assumed responsibility for
the communiqu, in an attempt to provide Kanazawa and the
Military Forces political cover.


4. (SBU) Duarte also is seeking to break a broader stalemate
between his administration and the opposition. The military
promotions controversy, the Colorado Party's attempt to
extend a Supreme Court Minister's term for five years, and
the designation of a controversial Ambassador to Cuba left
Congress without a quorum in December (ref B). Since then,
Duarte's legal maneuver to secure and temporarily assume the
Colorado Party Presidency (ref A) and his focus on pursuing
reelection further galvanized the opposition. In addition to
the removal of military leaders, the opposition has demanded
the resignation of the five Supreme Court Ministers who
facilitated Duarte's bid for the Colorado Party Presidency,
transparent accounting of funds generated by the country's
lucrative hydroelectric dams, and progress on several state
reform measures.


5. (SBU) The stalemate has precluded movement on key
legislation, including an important anti-money laundering
bill pending before Congress. The opposition continues to
block votes on military and police promotions, ambassadorial
and consular appointments, and millions of dollars in
potential assistance from international lenders.
Additionally, they boycotted the recent visit of Chilean

President Michelle Bachelet, and plan to boycott the upcoming
visit of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian.


6. (SBU) It is not apparent that Duarte's gesture will help
to resolve the current impasse. The opposition continues to
call for the removal of Military Forces Commander General
Kanazawa, whom they consider ultimately responsible for the
December communiqu, as well as the retirement (versus
reassignment) of Admiral Caballero and Colonel Galeano, as a
precondition to a vote on the military promotions list. They
also insist that the government meet the demands listed in
paragraph 4, above, before they will enter into earnest
consideration of other administration initiatives.

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Galeano's Future Uncertain
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7. (C) Comment: Colonel Galeano's inclusion on the military
promotion list was one of the reasons for the Senate's
decision to delay its vote in December. Galeano maintains a
close relationship with President Duarte, and is accused of
wiretapping opposition members (ref C). He also exercises
power and influence well above his rank, has ambitiously
sought to strengthen the REP at the expense of the rest of
the military, and is accused of involvement in corrupt
activities (refs E and F). His removal as REP Commander may
signal that his influence is waning. As REP Commander he
reported directly to the President and commanded 1,000 of the
military's best trained and equipped personnel. As 1st
Infantry Division Commander, he will report to the new Army
Commander and General Kanazawa, giving them a measure of
control over him, and will command only 250 troops. On the
other hand, the move places Galeano in a general officer
position, which may signal Duarte's intention to promote him
later, after breaking the current stalemate.
CASON