PARAGUAY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UPDATE, MARCH

UNCLAS ASUNCION 000357

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC AND EB/IFD/OIA
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR LAC/AA
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR LYANG
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
TREASURY FOR OSIA MAUREEN WAFER
TREASURY FOR OTA WARFIELD, VAN KOCH, MILLAR
COMMERCE FOR ITA SARAH COOK
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KCRM PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UPDATE, MARCH
25-31, 2006

REF: ASUNCION 0330


1. (U) Summary:
-- Russians Arrested in Paraguay
-- Partial Oil and Gas Exploration Setback
-- New IMF Program Agreed
-- Yby Yau Police Officers Put on Leave
-- ICE Conducts Course on Bulk Cash Smuggling

--------------
Russian-Israelis Arrested in Paraguay
--------------



2. (U) On 3/27, in cooperation with the Israeli police
representative in the region, SENAD agents arrested two
Russian-Israeli citizens wanted in Israel. The two detainees
are Gregory Lerner and Sergei Smolientski Arieh. Lerner fled
Israel several weeks ago after being convicted of cheating
businessmen out of over $1,000,000 and then laundering the
money. Lerner arrived in Paraguay via Brazil on 3/17. He was
traveling with a forged passport under the name Valery
Bronstein. Lerner has a long criminal record in both Israel
and Russia, and ties to the Russian mafia. The other
detainee, Sergei Smolientski Arieh, is believed to be
Lerner,s lieutenant in the Russian mafia and arrived in
Paraguay on 3/27. Police confiscated 118,000 USD and
1,080,000 Euros from the two men. Both the GOI and the GOP
suspect that they intended to start up a drug trafficking
business here, smuggling cocaine to Europe, Russia, Israel,
and the Middle East. The GOP does not have an extradition
treaty with Israel, however, the GOP has decided to deport
both individuals back to Israel. The GOP seized the assets,
and will retain the money until Israel can prove it was
earned illegally.

--------------
Partial Oil and Gas Exploration Setback
--------------


3. (U) Wildcat driller CDS Oil and Gas announced in February
the results of a Texas-based analysis of data from the
company,s first exploratory well. Drilled to the depth of
approximately 1.6 kilometers, the well confirmed the presence
of oil, but with a viscosity too high for commercial
exploitation at this time. In a subsequent meeting with the
Ambassador, two CDS executives explained that, for them, the
results were not unexpected, but were positive in that they
confirmed the company,s theory about the underlying geology.
Short of cash, the executives are seeking new investors to
fund drilling at an area about 100 miles to the south of the
first well, which CDS says it had to drill first for
contractual reasons, despite the fact that they feel more
confident about the potential of the second area.
Nevertheless, the executives told the Ambassador that they
believe the area near the first well has "more gas than
Bolivia," but that exploiting gas reserves is exponentially
more expensive than developing oil fields. CDS will first
seek to generate cash flow from what it hopes will be small
oil wells generating perhaps 300 barrels per day in the
southern region. According to CDS, Petropar,s obsolete
refinery would be able to handle the type and quantity of oil
they hope to find. If successful in attracting sufficient new
capital, CDS plans to recommence drilling in July.

--------------
New IMF Program Agreed
--------------


4. (U) After several months of negotiations, the GOP and IMF
staff have agreed on a draft Letter of Intent to be
considered first by IMF management and then the Board,
perhaps in early May. The new program would be a $93 million
Stand-by Agreement treated as precautionary by the GOP that
would stretch through the end of President Duarte,s
term in 2008. The program reportedly intends to build on

audit work done on the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under
the last IMF program by including performance criteria linked
to opening some SOEs to private sector participation. Vice
Minister of Economy Jorge von Horoch told Econcouns that
participation would be determined on a case-by-case basis
given the varying financial states of the SOEs, but that
private equity injection and management contracts would be
considered. The program will also include measures to address
the fact that the Central Bank is undercapitalized. The 2006
inflation target will be 5 percent, plus or minus 2.5
percent, with a maximum 7.5 percent, below 2005 inflation of
9.9 percent.

--------------
Yby Yau Police Officers Put on Leave
--------------


5. (U) Fidel Isasa Palacios, National Police Chief, recently
ordered all of the police officers of the Yby Yau precinct in
Concepcion Department, 400 miles northeast of Asuncion, to be
put on administrative leave. The order came as a result of
contradictions in the police reports offered by ex-commander
Osvaldo Nunez and sub-official Felipe Escobar concerning the
case of Enrique Galeano, a journalist who disappeared a month
ago. The police officers of the nearby Azotey precinct have
also been summoned before the National Police Court. National
Police Sub-commander Simon Bogado Bogado has been put in
charge of the renewed investigations into Galeano,s
disappearance. This case has drawn much public attention as a
Colorado congressman reputedly tied to drug traffickers has
been accused of involvement in the journalist's
disappearance(ref A)

--------------
ICE Conducts Course on Bulk Cash Smuggling
--------------


6. (U) During the week of March 27-30, Asuncion hosted
several representatives from ICE Washington and ICE
Montevideo who conducted a course in combating Bulk Cash
Smuggling. 42 Paraguayans participated in the course; those
in attendance included the members of the Financial
Investigative Unit of SENAD, several prosecutors from the
Economic Crimes Unit and representatives of the investigative
vetted units of UTE, SEPRELAD, Tax Investigations, Customs,
and the Internal Affairs within the Finance Ministry. The
participants were enthusiastic about the course and learned
different tactics for detecting and investigating and
operating against bulk cash smuggling.


CASON