PARAGUAY: SCENESETTER FOR TREASURY A/S O'BRIEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000231 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC TREASURY FOR A/S O'BRIEN; CYNTHIA MEDINA E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016 TAGS: PVOV PREL PTER KCRM SNAR PA SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: SCENESETTER FOR TREASURY A/S O'BRIEN VISIT Classified By: Political Counselor James P. Merz. Reason 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (U) Assistant Secretary O'Brien, Embassy Asuncion and I warmly welcome your visit as an opportunity to advance adoption of anti-money laundering legislation and strengthen cooperation with the GOP in combating corruption, including money laundering and other illicit activity. You come at a sensitive time, with President Duarte strengthened by recent internal party elections and with this law under debate by the Senate on the heels of our announcement about the MCA TP. What follows is an overview of the current situation in Paraguay as relates to the money laundering law, highlighting the key issues at stake and how we see you engaging with influential interlocutors. -------------- Your Program in Asuncion -------------- ¶2. (U) We look forward to your visit. Following meetings with me and the country team, you will meet with Vice-President Castiglioni, Presidential Economic Advisor Carlos Walde, the Banking Association, and Senators Gustavo Pedrozo and Bader Rachid, respectively the Presidents of the Commissions of Finance and Legislation, over lunch with key GOP players including Supreme Court Minister Antonio Fretes, Ministry of Industry and Commerce Raul Vera, Appellate Court Judge Luis Maria Benitez Riera, and SEPRELAD Director Carlos Yegros. Your meetings afford the opportunity to stress our support for President Duate's commitment to combat corruption and informality as evidenced by our recent announcement on the MCA TP and, to that end, reinforce the importance we place on adoption of the AML law as a way to strengthen cooperation. -------------- -------------- The Political Scene: Election Win Strengthens Duarte -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) Your visit comes two and half years into the Duarte presidency. In that time, Duarte turned a massive fiscal deficit into a large surplus, began a bold structural economic reform program, revived the economy, and has taken steps to fight corruption. At the same time, Duarte has come under fire for not taking adequate measures to create jobs and meet public security concerns; his commitment to combating corruption when it affects the political and economic interests of his own party has been called into question. As part of a bid to consolidate his power within the Colorado Party, Duarte ran for Colorado Party President. The significant victory he scored on 2/19 with 63 percent of the vote has strengthened his political capital. He assures us that he intends to use that capital to advance reform. To date, however, most evidence would suggest he is more focused on using it to pursue reelection which requires he amend the Constitution -- a long shot given stiff opposition resistance. -------------- Paraguay's Public Security Challenges -------------- ¶4. (U) Members of the Free Fatherland Party, a far-left political movement with a military wing, kidnapped and subsequently murdered the daughter of a former president, Cecilia Cubas, whose body was discovered in February. Evidence ties the PPL to the FARC. More recently, upon investigating further violence in Paraguay's interior, more evidence of FARC and Venezuelan involvement in training leftist militants has been uncovered. A culture of distrust allowing for little inter-institutional cooperation hampers the ability of Paraguay's law enforcement community to tackle rising concerns about public security; Paraguay's National Police are widely disparaged by the general population as incompetent and corrupt. Large areas of Paraguay have no government presence. In late 2004, given the lack of confidence in the police, the President called the military out of the barracks to assist with law enforcement efforts. Its profile on the street has diminished as focus on the Cubas kidnapping recedes from the public eye. The Cubas murder and clear evidence of FARC involvement shocked Paraguay's leaders and population. Increased cooperation with Colombia and the U.S. and realization of the need for better intelligence and other security measures were one result. -------------- - Reforming the Economy, But Growth Insufficient -------------- - ¶5. (U) Paraguay's formal economy relies on agriculture. It features bloated but weak state institutions and the heavy involvement of state-owned enterprises. There is considerable activity involving the trading of imported legitimate goods, as well as contraband and counterfeit products, most of which are destined for Brazil or Argentina. The Duarte government took office in 2003 on the heels of Paraguay's worst recession in years promising to attack widespread corruption and reform the economy. Duarte named a non-partisan, technocratic economic cabinet and has supported their efforts. On a macro-economic level, Paraguay's performance has been strong: economic growth reached 4.0 and 2.7 percent in 2004 and 2005, respectively, and inflation was brought down to near 3 percent in 2004 and just under 10 percent in 2005. However, whereas the government succeeded early on in getting some significant economic reform laws through Congress, progress over the last year has been slow. For Paraguay to escape from the poverty affecting roughly half of its population, the country needs to increase productivity by attracting capital and raising annual growth rates closer to 5 or 6 percent. Success will require the government to stay the course on macro-economic stability and undertake deeper structural reforms. -------------- International Crime and Counter-Terrorism -------------- ¶6. (U) The Tri-Border Area (TBA),the region of Paraguay that meets Brazil and Argentina, near the city of Ciudad del Este, is a primary USG concern. The area is notorious for drug and other smuggling, including trafficking in persons, intellectual piracy, document forgery, counterfeit cigarette manufacturing and loose border controls, especially at the Friendship Bridge connecting Paraguay with Brazil. ¶7. (C) Paraguay cooperates closely with us in addressing all the problems of greatest U.S. concern, including terrorist fund-raising by Hezbollah. Paraguay took the lead in establishing a 4 nation coordination group known as the "3 plus 1" (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and the U.S.). Also despite the lack of specific anti-terrorist statutes, Paraguay has actively prosecuted known terrorist fund-raisers on tax evasion charges. FARC involvement with the Cubas kidnapping and links to the local violent leftist Free Fatherland party have heightened Paraguayan concerns about terrorism. President Duarte noted the threats from international crime, including terrorist fund raising, in his July State of the Nation address. More recently, his Minister of Interior has asked for assistance in gathering more intelligence about the location and activities of militants in the interior. ¶8. (C) Despite preoccupation with close-to-home terrorism issues including kidnappings, local violent radicals, the FARC, and fund-raising for Hezbollah, Paraguay is reluctant to take a lead in the war on terrorism beyond its borders. This is due to pressure from Brazil as well as domestic concerns that an aggressive anti-terrorism policy (e.g., vis a vis the Middle East) will draw terrorist reprisals. In addition, memories of abuses under the Stroessner dictatorship remain a factor. ¶9. (U) Paraguay is a significant transit point for the transportation of cocaine and other narcotics by air from Colombia to Brazil. Much of the northwestern part of the country is uninhabited, and the GOP has difficulties in enforcing the law due to geography and the political power some drug traffickers wield. SENAD, the national anti-narcotics secretariat, coordinates GOP interdiction efforts, with significant assistance from the DEA. In November 2004, Paraguay, Brazil and DEA collaborated in a joint operation that produced the seizure of 260 kilograms of cocaine and the arrest of Brazilian drug kingpin Ivan Carlos Mendes Mesquita, wanted in the U.S. on drug trafficking charges involving Colombia's FARC guerrillas. Paraguay extradited Mendes Mesquita to the U.S. in June 2005 , a dramatic and unprecedented step. -------------- -------------- Where We Are on the Anti-Money Laundering Law (AML) -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Adoption and implementation of the draft AML law represents one of this Mission's highest priorities. A law drafted by a group of experts from the Attorney General's Office, the judiciary including the Supreme Court, the Central Bank, the anti-Money Laundering Secretariat (SEPRELAD),the anti-Drug Secretariat (SENAD),together with U.S. experts from the Department of Justice and the Treasury was submitted to the Senate in May 2004 where it remained stalled until late 2005. In October 2005, under significant U.S. pressure, the Finance Commission President submitted the law for full Senate action in October for a special procedure that required all Senators meet a 3/7 deadline for offering amendments. On 3/1, however, the first day back after a two month recess, Senators decided to suspend this procedure on grounds this law was very complicated and required more time for review. ¶11. (SBU) On the up side, the President, the Vice President, the Minister of Industry, key private sectors players are engaged and carrying out a full court press lobbying key Senators, strategizing to deal with the Banking Association opposition, and getting a strong public message out on merits of law. This represents the first time these key GOP players are taking the initiative. They have specifically asked us to step back both in terms of addressing the issue in the press and lobbying Senators hard, fearful our being seen out front will provide opponents with the pretext they need to play the nationalist card saying law is being imposed by U.S. (NB. This happened several years ago on the counterterrorism law, leading to its defeat.) ¶12. (SBU) Notwithstanding the 3/1 setback, we are still probably in the best situation we have ever been in on this law in 2 years. The GOP appears to realize how important this is to us, for them, and for our relationship. In exchanges with key GOP reps, we have linked the AML law to the MCA TP noting that continued GOP failure to deliver on the AML law calls into question its the GOP will to fight corruption. ¶13. (SBU) Duarte remains the key. Over the last several months he has been ensnarled in a nasty race for the Colorado Party Presidency. His recent big victory has strengthened him; he appreciated the recent announcement on the MCA TP which coincidentally occurred only several weeks before his election. The Colorados do not enjoy a majority in the Senate, but we remain confident if Duarte weighs in to get the Colorados to vote the right way on this law, the opposition will go along. Maximizing Your Visit -------------- ¶14. (U) Your visit on 3/8 is well timed. Coinciding with visit of OTA experts, it is a good chance to assess where we are on the AML and formulate a strategy on where we go from here. It also offers a good chance for you as a high level Washington visitor to stress the importance of the AML law with key players including -- Vice-President Castiglioni who is pro-U.S. and with us on this issue. You should stress how important adoption of the law is to relations and how it impacts Washington's views of Paraguay, and the Duarte administration in particular, and its commitment to combat corruption. -- Presidential Economic Advisor Carlos Walde who Paraguay's point person on MCA TP. Walde needs to appreciate the U.S. desire to support GOP anti-corruption efforts, including through agreement to MCA TP, but that conversely the GOP needs to reinforce its bonafides by adopting the AML law. -- Banking Association President Cello Tunholi and Executive Director Haitter who convey support for the law in principle but object to several key provisions. You need to stress the fact that the law is necessary for Paraguay to meet international standards, combat organized crime, and strengthen the credentials of the banking community. -- Senator Pedrozo who is President of Finance Commission and Senator Rachid who is President of the Legislation Commission. Pedrozo has assured us the law will pass but with modifications. We expect to work with him on the kinds of modifications he'll seek. Rachid, who is President of the Legislation Commission and the brother of Paraguay's FM is of Syrian descent and has been accused of involvement in illicit activities. He has conveyed strong objections to the law and on 3/1 led the charge in lifting the procedure that would have required Senators to opine on the law by 3/1. In the past, he has also denied terrorist financing occurs in the TBA. All that said, Rachid loves to be stroked. Inviting him to the Ambassador's residence is a big deal. We'll need to give our pitch on the AML law, emphasizing our concerns as they relate not just to Paraguay but others in region and be prepared to solicit and listen to their concerns. General Talking Points for Meetings -------------- ¶14. (U) You may draw as appropriate from the following talking points. -- Describe your job and note visiting countries in region Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay discussing ways to improve cooperation in combating terrorist financing. You should speak to concerns as they relate to the region and be prepared to offer views on neighbors' legislation making the point -- provided it is true -- that they have passed legislation that meets international standards whereas Paraguay has not. -- With regard to Paraguay, we are concerned that the illicit activity that occurs in CDE creates an opportunity for individuals and organizations seeking to launder money, sometimes to finance terrorist organizations. -- We have worked in collaboration with Paraguayan officials to investigate individuals with such links. We have provided Paraguay with training and resources to carry out these investigations. But the work is complicated and requires strong laws. -- President Duarte has conveyed his own commitment to combating corruption. He is also clearly committed to combating poverty, in large measure by promoting growth and investment and fighting informality. -- Together with the Congress, he has secured the adoption of key legislation including laws on a personal income tax, a new customs code, and a new customs regime in CDE. His policies have also helped Paraguay register economic growth over the last two years. -- The U.S. has conveyed its support for the President in word and action. Most recently, we announced USG agreement to $35 million in connection to the Millennium Challenge Account Threshold Program to support Paraguay's efforts to combat impunity and informality. -- If Paraguay meets the objectives of this program it could qualify for full participation in the MCA program, opening the door to significantly greater assistance programs. -- As you are aware, a bill to modify Paraguay's anti-money laundering law is presently before the Congress. This bill addresses deficiencies in the current law. It would enable Paraguay to meet obligations it assumed when it ratified a number of international treaties and conventions on international terrorism. -- Paraguay's adoption of this bill would reinforce the President's commitment to combating corruption giving his law enforcement community an important tool to combat this crime. -- We hope Paraguay will be able to move on a timely basis to adopt and implement this law. We are prepared to assist in anyway we can. You can draw from the following points on an as appropriate/if raised basis: -- Laundering money 1) fosters corruption, 2) cuts tax review and 3) discourages clean investment. It also provides cover for terror financing. -- Concern is concrete, not theoretical. Paraguay has convicted three terrorist financiers (Sobhi Fayad, Ali Nizar Dahroug, Assad Barakat) over the last three years on tax evasion. Another two -- Hatem Barakat and Kasan Hijazi -- suspected of financing terrorism are being prosecuted for document fraud and tax evasion respectively. -- Money laundering charges were not brought against them and their assets were never seized because of deficiencies in current law. International Obligations -- Paraguay has ratified all 12 UN counter terror conventions and both OAS conventions. We applaud that step. -- But these treaties (UN Vienna Convention in 1988 and the OAS Inter-American Convention Against Terrorism) impose obligations. -- UN Security Council Resolution 1373 adopted on 9/28/01 in immediate aftermath of 9/11 requires States to: -- Prevent and suppress financing of terrorist acts; -- Criminalize willful provision or collection of funds to carry out terrorist acts; -- Freeze without delay funds of persons who facilitate terrorist acts; -- Ensure that any person who participates in the financing of terrorist acts is brought to justice. -- Under its existing law, Paraguay cannot meet these commitments. Strengths of Law -- Draft law aims to correct deficiencies of current law: -- 1) Current law requires conviction for a predicate offense. Incredibly wasteful as AML investigation can't begin until there is a prior conviction. By then the party has effectively destroyed evidence. Obstructs investigation of most economic crimes and stimulates corruption. New law makes AML autonomous crime. -- 2) Under current law, fiscales can't keep up with money launderers for lack of investigative tools. New law avails prosecutors many of tools they now have to investigate drug cases: communication intercepts, informants, undercover investigation, controlled deliveries, plea bargaining. -- 3) Under current law, asset seizure possible in theory but in absence of concrete procedures it is not possible. New law establishes procedures to hit criminals where it hurts by seizing their assets. -- 4) Under current Law SEPRELAD works under a Council made up of Executive Branch members of high rank. Creates artificial bureaucracy and slows down process. Under new law, works directly for president. -- Experts that visited Paraguay affirmed the law meets international standards. With the Press -------------- ¶15. (U) You can expect to encounter the press at least coming out of your meeting with the Vice-President. In your comments you should stress that -- you are visiting the region, including Brazil and Paraguay in conjunction with an invitation to attend a conference in Argentina on counter terror financing. -- U.S. shares Paraguay's concern about illicit activities in the region; -- U.S. support Paraguayan efforts to combat illicit activity, including money laundering, through the adoption of key reforms including money laundering legislation that is in compliance with international norms; -- U.S. looks forward to continuing to cooperate with Paraguay to combat illicit activity in the region as concerns about transnational crime including money laundering and terrorist financing know no borders. (if raised) Does U.S. have proof of terrorist activity in the TBA? -- As the U.S. has stated on occasions in the past, there is no evidence of terrorist operational activities in the TBA. -- We share Paraguay's concerns as relates to illicit activity which opens the door to money laundering and terrorist financing. -- President Duarte himself has conveyed Paraguay's concerns as relate to terrorist fundraising. -- We look forward to continuing to work with Paraguay in addressing these concerns. CASON