PARAGUAY'S INTERNAL ELECTIONS DISPLAY ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000183

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY'S INTERNAL ELECTIONS DISPLAY ITS
POLITICAL DYSFUNCIONALITY


Classified By: Political Counselor James P. Merz for Reason
1.4 (b),(d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The campaign for the Colorado Party
Presidency and membership on its Executive Board has put on
prominent display the dysfuncionality of Paraguay's political
process. President Duarte is running for the office of Party
President despite his original announcement he had no
intention of exercising the position; later he announced he
might retain the office. Meanwhile, the Superior Elections
Tribunal (TSJE),generally regarded as one of Paraguay's more
independent and transparent institutions, has ruled that
Duarte is permitted to run for the office of Party President
but according to the Constitution is barred from exercising
it. Much of the government's regular business has been put
on hold as the President and many of the government's civil
servants have devoted their time and state resources to
campaign efforts.

2). (C) The race has been more characterized by visceral
name-calling than a substantive discussion of the issues.
The conventional wisdom remains that Duarte should win the
race for Party President over Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb (ODD),a
businessman notorious for involvement in the sale of
contraband cigarettes and other illicit activities. However,
Duarte's "list" of candidates is locked in a tough battle for
a control of the seats in the Party's Executive Board. A
failure by Duarte's list to win a majority of the seats could
set the stage for maneuvering amongst the party's competing
factions to elect a Vice-President who would then become the
Party's acting head should Duarte turn over the reins. ODD's
camp has indirectly threatened violence should they detect
massive fraud. No doubt fraud will figure in results, but
Duarte's command of the party machinery promises to be the
decisive factor. The real question is whether Duarte will be
able to win by a large enough margin in a credible election
to reclaim the initiative and focus he needs to advance
reform. End Summary.

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Election Concern
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3. (SBU) The TSJE has won high marks in the past for its
transparency, independence, and competence in overseeing past
elections. Its efforts in administering an internal
election, however, are complicated by the fact that it will
share that responsibility with the Colorado Party's Elections
Tribunal (TEP) which in the past has been subject to bias and
fraud. On 2/14, PolOff met with TSJE Director of Public
Relations, Liliana Benitez, who indicated that senior TSJE
officials are concerned TEP or individual candidates might
announce results prematurely, casting doubt on the final
results TSJE announces. PolOff suggested that TSJE discuss
this matter directly with the TEP and candidates, requesting
they refrain from announcing results or declaring victory
until after all votes are counted.


4. (SBU) Separately, according to Benitez, the TSJE is
concerned that a number of TSJE employees are prepared to
sell their support to the highest bidder. This could involve
their encouraging voters to support one-candidate over
another. More seriously, it could mean they would allow
individuals to vote with false documents.

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The Supreme Confusion
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5. (C) The TSJE has twice affirmed that Duarte can run as a
candidate for the Party Presidency but is constitutionally
barred from assuming the presidency. On 2/14, the Supreme
Court upheld the TSJE's opinion that Duarte can run for
election but withheld its views regarding whether he can
actually exercise the office. President Duarte had initially
announced his intention to turn over the office should he be
elected in which case the responsibilities would flow to the
individual elected first Vice-President by members of the
newly elected Executive Board. Duarte's "list" for seats on
the Executive Board may not win a majority, creating the
possibility his opponents could successfully elect their
candidate as Vice-President. Duarte has thus indicated that
he may bid to retain the presidency should he be elected,
taking the decision to the Supreme Court for an official
ruling. (Comment: The Supreme Court recently elected a new

President and a pair of Vice Presidents generally viewed as
responsive to Senator Juan Carlos Galaverna, Duarte's
principal political operator. Practically everything remains
possible in Paraguay when it comes to the rule of law making
it hard to predict how the Court would rule on such a major
decision. End Comment.)

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The Race for Vice-President
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6. (SBU) Should Duarte win but decide to step down, the
election of the Vice-President becomes pivotal. Jose Alberto
Alderete, Duarte's Minister of Public Works and the first
name on Duarte's list for the Executive Board, enjoys the
edge for gaining election as the First Vice-President.
However, Galaverna, second on Duarte's list, is rumored to be
lining up votes to win the election. Should Duarte's list
not win a majority of members to the Executive Board he will
need to vie for votes from the list of Liliana Samaniego,
former Senator and President of Colorado Women's Association.
Samaniego has said she supports Duarte's bid for the
Presidency but is viscerally opposed to Galaverna. Duarte
has slammed her in the press for creating her own list but
reportedly is courting her support privately. Of course,
ODD's camp is also courting Samaniego. The leading names on
her list include strong Duarte supporters suggesting Duarte's
candidate could gain election with votes from Samaniego --
it's just not clear whether they would support Alderete or
Galaverna or leverage their support for a third candidate.

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Internal Bleeding
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7. (U) With the election only two days away, the Colorado
Party's election for Party President and members to its
Executive Board has deteriorated into visceral personal
attacks and accusations of corruption on both sides. ODD's
newspaper ran a multi-day series on Duarte's real estate and
other holdings, alleging they were obtained through
corruption. Some opposition figures joined calls to
investigate the sourse of Duarte's assets. Duarte responded
by accusing ODD of being a criminal. Duarte's supporters
have resorted to using government resources to advance their
campaign effort by enlisting government employees to campaign
as well as using government assets, including vehicles and
possible funds, to support the campaign. FM Leila Rachid
recently hosted a fund-raiser for Duarte. Both she and
Deputy Foreign Minister Luis Morinigo called on the public
employees to vote for Duarte and his list. Neither Duarte
nor ODD has spoken substantively on policy issues beyond
platitudes. ODD's supporters have issued veiled threats of
violence should they decide the election was determined by
massive fraud. Most observers believe that Duarte's command
of the party's machinery over fraud will prove the decisive
factor in this election.

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Comment
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8. (C) Conventional wisdom suggests Duarte will win the
election for Colorado Party Presidency. He could also well
win a majority of seats to the Party's Executive Board and,
if not, enjoys a better chance than not of securing the votes
he needs to elect a supporter to assume the board's reins
should he decide to step down. The broader question,
however, is whether he can win by a large enough margin in an
election viewed as generally clean to restore his image and
stature as the most important political player in Paraguay.
Over the last two months, much of the government's work has
been placed on hold as Duarte and his team have devoted
themselves to campaigning. Many important decisions, some
directly pertaining to our own interests -- on visas, the
work of investigative units -- have been held up pending
results. An ugly campaign consisting of much name calling
and nasty allegations of corruption have damaged Duarte's
reputation. With municipal primaries in the offing, the
concern becomes whether Duarte can reclaim the initiative and
focus he needs to advance reform.
CASON