PARAGUAY: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH VP CASTIGLIONI

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000162 SIPDIS SIPDIS NAIROBI FOR MICHAEL FITZPATRICK SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE NSC FOR SUE CRONIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CVIS KCRM PINR BL PA SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH VP CASTIGLIONI Classified By: ECON Patrick R. O'Reilly for reasons 1.4(b),(d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During the Ambassador,s February 6 introductory call on Vice President Castiglioni, the VP was eager to establish a productive relationship. Castiglioni raised the election of Evo Morales in Bolivia and said that Bolivia,s future is a source of concern given its proximity and the possibility that secessionist pressures could increase. He suggested that the USG could consider Paraguay an &anchor8 of stability in the region. The Ambassador raised the importance of the passage of the anti-money laundering law, which he called a litmus test of the GOP,s political will. The VP claimed that it was a priority for the GOP, but one of the VP,s aides expressed pessimism that it would be passed. The Ambassador urged a rapid resolution of the disparity between the short-term visas issued to American citizens and the US policy of issuing ten-year visas. The VP asked for a reprieve until after the February 19 internal Colorado Party elections, but showed the Ambassador a draft Presidential Decree that would eliminate the visa requirement for American citizens, replacing it with an administrative fee to be paid at the point of entry into Paraguay. The Ambassador and VP also discussed potential cooperation on arranging for a trade mission from Florida to visit Paraguay. End Summary. -------------- SEEKING INVESTMENT, TRADE, AND SECURITY -------------- ¶2. (U) On February 6, Ambassador Cason, accompanied by A/DCM, had his introductory call on Vice President Castiglioni. Castiglioni had just returned from two weeks in the United States, during which he spent some time meeting with potential investors and promoting Paraguay as a place with commercial opportunities. Castiglioni was gracious and eager to establish a positive and productive relationship with Ambassador Cason. ¶3. (C) Castiglioni began by making reference to an article he saw in a Miami paper on Saturday, February 4, which quoted a senior US military commander who evidently made the point that adequate national security was a prerequisite for development. He promised to send the Ambassador a copy of the article, and made reference to the statements several times, which he said echoed discussions he had had with Vice President Cheney in June 2005. The VP asserted that the US and Paraguay should base our relationship on mutual respect and cooperation, and reiterated the importance of regional security cooperation for development and poverty reduction. -------------- EXPORTS, EDUCATION, MCC -------------- ¶4. (U) The Ambassador agreed, and told the VP that he had three goals in mind for his time in Paraguay: 1) to help increase Paraguayan exports to the US, noting that trade is a two-way street, and specifically mentioning meat and stevia (a natural sweetener derived from a bush native to Paraguay); 2) to find a way to make more scholarships available to Paraguayan students and 3) to work together to increase transparency and reduce informality. He shared with the VP that we expected a positive outcome from the Millennium Challenge Corporation's February 8 Board meeting. ¶5. (C) Castiglioni lamented that in many countries in the region, the people don't see the benefits of democracy. He blamed poor governance, and said the point needs to be reached where citizens appreciate democracy as a common good. The Ambassador emphasized the need to work together to strengthen institutions, and the VP agreed that the MCC Threshold Program would be of great help. The Ambassador underscored the importance of solid performance on the challenging agenda set forth in the Threshold Program, since Paraguay will have to make significant progress in order to one day qualify for the MCC,s main program. Castiglioni later commented on the importance of reducing informality and fostering an open, predictable and stable economy. -------------- --- WORRIES ABOUT MORALES ) BUT PARAGUAY AN &ANCHOR8 -------------- --- ¶6. (C) The Vice President raised the election of Evo Morales in Bolivia and said that Bolivia,s future is a source of concern for the GOP. The VP noted that not only is Bolivia a neighbor, but that the provinces bordering Paraguay have diverging interests from the capital, which might one day lead to decisions &affecting Bolivia,s sovereignty.8 The Ambassador noted that while skepticism is perhaps prudent, Morales has some political capital and the ability to do some good things. He told the VP that the USG would wait to judge Morales' actions, and hope that he makes the right decisions for the people of Bolivia. The VP used the discussion of Bolivia to make a pitch for Paraguay being an &anchor8 of stability and security in the region, and an even more important partner for the United States. -------------- COMMERCIAL TIES WITH FLORIDA -------------- ¶7. (U) The VP briefed the Ambassador on meetings he had in Florida with business leaders and with Governor Bush in November 2005, with the eventual goal of arranging a Florida trade mission to Paraguay. Sectors that have been discussed include energy, textiles, beef, and technology. The Vice President will be in Florida in mid-March with the Minister of Industry and Commerce Raul Vera, Presidential Economic Advisor Carlos Walde, and some prominent Paraguayan business leaders. The Ambassador noted that he would be in Miami at the same time and both discussed the possibility of the Ambassador's participation in the event, which greatly pleased the VP. -------------- ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING LEGISLATION -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ambassador raised the importance of the passage of the anti-money laundering law, which he said the USG considers a litmus test of the GOP,s political will. Castiglioni said that the Executive Branch has been fighting for passage for a long time, and noted that President Duarte has raised it publicly and strongly pushed for passage last year in a meeting of the three branches of government. Castiglioni said that there have been advances, and that the status should be clearer in March. The VP,s Economic Advisor, Luis Maria Duarte, related that Carlos Yegros, the director of Paraguay's Financial Intelligence Unit (SEPRELAD),had expressed pessimism to him after a number of meetings with Senators, who Yegros claimed did not understand the importance of the law. ¶9. (C) The Ambassador and the Vice President agreed on a strategy in which President Duarte would meet with the Colorado Senators, after which the Ambassador would host four or five key Senators from the Colorado party and then separately from opposition parties at the Residence where we could push for passage. The VP claimed to be more optimistic than Yegros, noting that a few notable opponents to the law had changed their views. -------------- VISAS FOR AMCITS -------------- ¶10. (C) The Ambassador stressed the importance of resolving the disparity between Paraguay granting 90-day visas for American citizens, while the US grants Paraguayans ten-year visas. He noted that it is in Paraguay's interested to find a solution that will benefit Paraguay by making it easier for tourists and investors to travel here. The Vice President said that he has been working with Economic Advisor Carlos Walde and that he had spoken to President Duarte about the issue. The VP asked for a reprieve until after the February 19 internal Colorado Party elections, but showed the Ambassador a draft Presidential Decree that would eliminate the visa requirement for American citizens, replacing it with an administrative fee to be paid at the point of entry into Paraguay. -------------- COMMENT: VP A FRIEND...BUT CAN HE DELIVER? -------------- ¶11. (C) Less populist, more pro-U.S., and with private sector experience, Castiglioni is a positive influence on President Duarte and our outspoken ally. As internal Colorado elections progressed, his differences with the President have become more public, however, and his influence may be declining. He has publicly disagreed with Duarte several times in recent months, only to disappear from public view at other moments. His advice was (by his own admission) decisively rejected by the President on some issues of major importance to U.S. (e.g. Cabral, American Airlines controversy, and visas). Castiglioni has supporters within his party, especially in the business sector, and is a useful complement to Duarte's populism, as long as he is not considered disloyal. CASON