PARAGUAY: ARCHBISHOP CUQUEJO OFFERS GLOOMY FORECAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001092

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: ARCHBISHOP CUQUEJO OFFERS GLOOMY FORECAST

REF: ASUNCION 0430

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; Reasons: 1.4(b),(d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: Cuquejo, Asuncion's Archbishop, told the
Ambassador that President Duarte no longer enjoys wide
support because of his inability to deliver on social issues.
Cuquejo predicts a post-2008 Presidency by VP Castiglioni
would undertake needed reforms, regardless of opposition from
within the Colorado Party. Cuquejo now believes Monsignor
Lugo does want to be President, but Cuquejo doubts he can
win. Perhaps most notably, Cuquejo lamented Paraguayans are
growing weary of democracy and pessimistic about prospects
for change. END SUMMARY.

CUQUEJO ON PRESIDENT DUARTE


2. (C) Archbishop of Asuncion Pastor Cuquejo told the
Ambassador over breakfast October 26 that President Duarte
has "broken faith wit7=VHTj)Qhe Presidential elections of 2008, Cuquejo
thinks that Duarte has no political future, especially since
he was unable to win public support for his reelection bid.
(NOTE: Duarte won the Colorado Presidency in February 2006
and is likely to claim that position at the end of his
Presidential term. END NOTE.) Referring to the emotional
swings of Duarte, Cuquejo maintained Duarte suffers from
panic attacks and takes medication for his condition. (NOTE:
Cuquejo is not the first to suggest Duarte is psychologically
unstable. Most of those making this claim are from the
opposition. This is the first time we have heard someone
suggest he takes medication. END NOTE.)

A DIVIDED COLORADO PARTY AND HIS HOPE, CASTIGLIONI


4. (C) Cuquejo spoke frankly to divisions in the Colorado
Party. On the one hand, there is the mafia old guard, many
hailing from the Stroessner era that don't want to lose their
power and influence. He said the money flowing through the
Colorado ParQ";A|Q~LC QQ2Q)8([ty to seek public office. In
addition, the Catholic Church has rules that also forbid
priests from actively pursuing political office. Cuquejo
believes it will be extremely difficult for Lugo to clear all
the hurdles to attempt a run at the Presidency. Even then,
Cuquejo still does not believe Lugo has enough support. He
referred to the March 29 protest Lugo led against the Duarte
Administration, stating that Lugo only garnered about 40,000
participants from all opposition parties, labor unions, NGO's
and religious organizations. Cuquejo contended that the
opposition political parties are using him and riding his
coattails as long as they can but was doubtful that those
political parties would agree to Lugo heading an opposition
ticket in 2008 (reftel).

THE PARAGUAYAN PEOPLE


7. (C) Cuquejo indicated that the general population is
socially demoralized and frustrated with the Duarte
Administration and the government, in general. Unemployment
is high and many are living day-to-day. Cuquejo believes the
people are pessimistic about change and democracy because
they have seen very little change in their everyday lives.
He said the Church had a 5-year social plan that focused on
reduction of poverty, working with street children, agrarian
reform, and education. But the Church had ceased
participation in the project because Beloved Fatherland Party
(PPQ) leader Pedro Fadul claimed ownership and credit for its
progress. Cuquejo went on to say that Paraguayans are
religious people and believe in God but they do not follow
the core tenets of the religion, citing stealing and
corruption as evidence.


8. (C) COMMENT: It is widely known that the Catholic Bishops
are dissatisfied with the Duarte Administration because of
it's inability to solve the countries larger problems,
including job creation and poverty. In much of November and
December in 2005 and February 2006 (leading up to the
internal Colorado Party elections),the Catholic Bishops were
highly critical of Duarte. We expect to see much of the same
as we get closer to the November 19 Municipal Elections.
Cuquejo's views on the Colorado Party and VP Castiglioni
indicate his hope of change is forthcoming. Castiglioni's
mediation between Duarte and the Church has obviously
impressed Cuquejo.


9. (C) COMMENT cont.: Post does not necessarily share
Archbishop Cuquejo's view as regards to Lugo's support. An
avowed leftist, Lugo has credibility and wide support among
the campesino organizations and the poor because of his work,
including organizing peasants in San Pedro for the last few
years. Cuquejo's point about the opposition's support has
some merit. Lugo has effectively garnered wide support of
all political parties in the opposition. However, that
support is relatively thin and some members of the opposition
parties have already discreetly signaled reservations about
supporting his candidacy. As a whole though, the opposition
parties are so thirsty for a win over the Colorados, Post
believes that they would seriously consider his candidacy if
they thought he had a chance to win. Lugo, for his part, has
some skeletons in his closet that could jeopardize his
candidacy. Lugo has indicated he will announce this December
his decision regarding any candidacy. Should he decide then
to throw his hat in the ring much of this dirt would start
getting wider treatment. END COMMENT.
CASON