KAZAKHSTANI OPPOSITION FIGURES SKEPTICAL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASTANA 000712 SIPDIS SIPDIS SCA/CEN FOR M. O'MARA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTANI OPPOSITION FIGURES SKEPTICAL ON CHANCES FOR POLITICAL REFORM Classified By: Amb. John Ordway for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings with the Ambassador on November 27, opposition figures Galymzhan Zhakiyanov and Zharmakhan Tuyakbay stated that they do not expect near-term political reforms in Kazakhstan. Neither could predict whether President Nazarbayev will alter Kazakhstan's current political system. Despite his skepticism, Tuyakbay said that his party, the Social Democrats, will attend the last meeting of Kazakhstan's Democratization Commission. Zhakiyanov suggested that Nazarbayev is losing touch with the views of ordinary citizens, pointing to three recent proposals that he categorized as mistakes - banning right-hand drive cars, restricting gambling to two provincial cities, and shifting the Kazakh language from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet. End summary. ¶2. (C) In separate meetings with the Ambassador on November 27, Galymzhan Zhakiyanov and Zharkmakhan Tuyakbay, leader of the Social Democrat Party, expressed their doubts that President Nazarbayev will fulfill recent promises of democratic reform. Zhakiyanov believes that the GOK will feel no pressure to press for reforms if it fails in its bid to chair the OSCE in 2009. Tuyakbay warned that each time President Nazarbayev travels to the U.S., he makes promises that he does not keep. According to Tuyakbay, Kazakhstan's Democratization Commission has also proven a failure. He told the Ambassador that most suggestions made by the Commission's working group have been rejected. He expects minimum reforms will result, but he did add that the Commission should not be disbanded and that his party will attend the group's final meeting (Comment: Among the opposition, only Alikhan Baymenov of Ak Zhol has participated in previous sessions of the Democratization Commission. End comment) 3.(C) Both Zhakiyanov and Tuyakbay were uncertain as to whether President Nazarbayev will seek to alter Kazakhstan's political system. Tuyakbay believes that Nazarbayev merged the pro-government parties to provide them time to develop and in order to manage them more effectively. He thinks that Nazarbayev may choose to create a party-list system similar to Russia's, believing that the ruling coalition will be able to take 80 to 90 percent of the seats. Zhakiyanov feels that Nazarbayev will wait for results of elections in Russia before proposing any reforms, and that any changes will mirror those made in Russia. Both mentioned Singapore as a political model attractive to Nazarbayev. ¶4. (C) Tuyakbay discussed the status of the Social Democrat Party, which recently had its registration suspended by the Ministry of Justice soon after submitting a party list with 127,000 supporters (and another 50,000 waiting to join, according to Tuyakbay)(Note: 50,000 signatures are required). The Ministry claimed it could take longer to verify the signatures. Tuyakbay said he had an additional 20,000 signatures ready to submit to overcome the disqualifications of the ones he had submitted. He also reported that President Nazarbayev promised to register the party if Tuyakbay promised not to criticize him personally. Nevertheless, Tuyakbay believes the party will ultimately be registered. The party's support is strongest in southern Kazakhstan and in the country's regional centers, he said, but the party has activists and an established network throughout the country. (Comment: Tuyakbay stated that one of the party's principal goals is to improve the standard of living of ethnic Kazakhs. This emphasis is likely to lessen the party's popularity in northern Kazakhstan. End Comment) ¶5. (C) Tuyakbay believes that Kazakhstan needs a unified opposition, and he told the Ambassador he may seek to create a union of opposition parties. The future of "For a Just Kazakhstan," however, is unclear, he said. The group "lacks unity" and he is undecided as to whether it should be disbanded. He does not believe that the death of Sarasenbaiuly affected the block, as he sought its dismantlement and favored the strengthening of individual parties. ¶6. (C) Zhakiyanov told the Ambassador that President Nazarbayev has made three decisions that indicate that he lacks "sufficient contact with the people." First, he proposed limiting all gambling to two provincial cities, Kapchagay and Shchuchinsk, as of January 1, 2007. (Note: Kazakhstan currently has 132 casinos and 2,000 other gambling parlors, slot halls, and bookmakers.) Next, he banned the import of right-hand drive cars from the beginning of 2007 and the use of such cars from 2010, setting off organized protests in Almaty and in other regions of the country. Finally, he has advocated shifting the Kazakh language from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet. Zhakiyanov believes that these decisions, which he called mistakes, demonstrate that President Nazarbayev is not receiving adequate information. ¶7. (C) Comment: Zhakiyanov and Tuyakbay's skepticism is shared by many in the opposition and pro-government camps. There are clearly various groups within the elite pushing for and against reform. President Nazarbayev has not yet tipped his hand, but most observers expect him to make a major announcement early next year on the country's political future. End comment. ORDWAY