KAZAKHSTANI PRESIDENT DISCUSSES REGIONAL AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASTANA 000573 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (M. O'MARA),NEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL EINV AF IZ KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTANI PRESIDENT DISCUSSES REGIONAL AND DOMESTIC POLICY Classified By: Amb. John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a 45-minute discussion following the dedication of the new embassy in Astana, President Nazarbayev expressed frustration with the misguided policies of Uzbek president Karimov, pledged Kazakhstani investment in Afghanistan, warned against any precipitous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, conveyed a warning from Hosni Mubarak that executing Saddam Hussein would cause mass unrest in the Middle East, and stated that Kazakhstan would implement significant political reforms in 2007. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador hosted President Nazarbayev at a lunch following the November 14 dedication of the new embassy in Astana. Deputy Prime Minister Karim Masimov, Presidential Administration chief Adylbek Dzhaksybekov, Security Council secretary Marat Tazhin, chief of administrative affairs of SIPDIS the Presidential Administration Bulat Utemuratov, Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev, Astana akim Askar Mamin, presidential interpreter Magzhan Ilyasov, OBO Director Charles Williams, Amb. Elizabeth Jones, DCM, and Pol-Econ Chief (notetaker) also participated. ¶3. (C) Nazarbayev expressed frustration with President Karimov of Uzbekistan's policies, concurring with the Ambassador that Uzbekistan would be the leading country in the region today if managed properly. The Kazakhstani leader said that he had tried on numerous occasions to convince Karimov to lift restrictions on trade between the two countries, sign an agreement on guest workers, and allow Kazakhstani investment in the Uzbek economy, all to no avail. "He sees terrorists everywhere" and therefore won't loosen up any of the rules, Nazarbayev said. He added that he had even sent his leading economic advisor Grigoriy Marchenko to Uzbekistan to try to convince them to adopt wiser economic policies. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador explained that with the reorganization of the State Department's geographic bureaus, the U.S. now looked at stable and relatively prosperous nations such as Kazakhstan and India to serve as pillars of the region. Nazarbayev agreed that it was in Kazakhstan's interest to promote integration and development in Central and South Asia, adding that Kazakhstan had recently sent a survey team to Afghanistan to look for investment opportunities. Motioning toward FM Tokayev as the lead on the issue, Nazarbayev said that the team had identified several potential investment projects. ¶5. (C) Nazarbayev asked about the foreign policy impact of the recent congressional elections in the U.S., adding quickly that he hoped that the changes in the Congress would not result in an abrupt withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Such a course of action, Nazarbayev stressed, would lead to civil war. Iran would then take advantage of the power vacuum to invade. In a separate conversation with the Ambassador, Nazarbayev said that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak had recently told him that if Saddam Hussein is executed it will touch off a wave of unrest throughout the Sunni world. Nazarbayev asked the Ambassador to convey Mubarak's warning to the White House. ¶6. (C) Turning to Kazakhstan's own development, Nazarbayev stated that large-scale political reforms would be implemented in 2007. He reminded his interlocutors that he had always insisted that the tasks of building the state structure and creating a strong economy should be fulfilled before moving on to political reform. That point has now been reached, Nazarbayev said, and it is time to move forward with reform of the political system. Minimize Considered ORDWAY