KAZAKHSTAN: NAZARBAYEV OUTLINES PLAN TO MAKE KAZAKHSTAN ONE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000029 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (J. MUDGE) USOSCE FOR D. BROWN AND J. DUNLOP E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECIN EINV ENRG KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE PINR WTRO, KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: NAZARBAYEV OUTLINES PLAN TO MAKE KAZAKHSTAN ONE OF WORLD'S 50 MOST COMPETITIVE COUNTRIES REF: ALMATY 1095 ¶1. (U) Summary: In his annual state of the nation address delivered on March 1, President Nazarbayev presented his "Strategy for Kazakhstan's being among - the world's 50 most competitive countries." In his introductory statement, he spoke of the key components of his vision: the market economy, the social safety net, a democratic society, national security, and international relations. While Nazarbayev's speech touched upon all of these issues, his focus was clearly on economic modernization. End summary. The Market Economy -------------- ¶2. (U) President Nazarbayev stressed diversification of the economy, calling for realization of "breakthrough projects" and achieving world market competitiveness in selected "niches." He strongly endorsed extending government support and credit assistance to stimulate imports of high-tech equipment and exports of goods other than raw materials. Noting that such exports have remained at the level of $2 bn. for almost a decade, Nazarbayev called it "necessary" to achieve an increase. At the same time, he promised to continue to maintain "transparency and stability in conditions of cooperation with multinational corporations" in the natural resource sector. In regard to energy, Nazarbayev said the focus "must now be on diversifying and ensuring stable channels for supply of Kazakhstan's energy resources to the world markets." ¶3. (U) A key aspect of President Nazarbayev's economic program is Kazakhstan's integration into the world economy. "We must be prepared for intense competition and use it to our advantage," he declared. Nazarbayev expressed support for Kazakhstan's active participation in various economic organizations and for WTO accession, which "is going at full speed." He called for the development of a commercial high-tech sector, an effort in which the Innovation Fund would play a key role. (Note: The state-owned National Innovation Fund was established in May 2003 to encourage economic diversification and industrial-innovative development. End note.) This, Nazarbayev said, would enable Kazakhstan to acquire intellectual property ownership. Consequently, he continued, Kazakhstan needs to improve protection of copyrights and trademarks by strengthening criminal and administrative measures against infringement and implementing "a broad-based public campaign aimed at building intolerance to pirated goods." ¶4. (U) President Nazarbayev also addressed the issue of infrastructure, saying that "the major task for Kazakhstan's transport-communications complex remains integration into the Eurasian transportation system." The integration process, he said, "must take full advantage of the country's geo-strategic position as a transit bridge between Europe and Asia." Nazarbayev called for the creation of at least two or three aviation hubs to establish "quality links" between Europe and Asia. He said that improved infrastructure is needed to develop Almaty as "the principal financial center of the Central Asian region" and Astana as "a modern capital of the Eurasian space." Nazarbayev also spoke of creating "academic centers" and "technological parks" and directing the development of the country's scientific potential to link applied research with commercial business. The state must "abolish legislative, administrative, and bureaucratic obstacles to business initiative." ¶5. (U) President Nazarbayev charged the Government with a number of concrete tasks, particularly in the area of taxation. The value added tax, he said, should be lowered by 1% in 2007 and ASTANA 00000029 002 OF 003 another 1-2% in 2008-2009. (Note: The value added tax is currently set at 15%. End note.) Starting in 2008, the social tax is to be reduced by 30%, which "should serve as a stimulus for employers to raise employees' wages." (Note: The social tax is a progressive tax paid by the employer on employees' wages. End note.) Starting in 2007, a single unified tax rate is to be introduced for small businesses. (Note: Small businesses are currently subject to a progressive tax. End note.) At the same time, a 10% personal income tax is to be introduced, with partial exemptions for low income earners. Nazarbayev emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline and using monetary policy to limit inflation. He also called for various legislative measures aimed at strengthening the institution of private property, including imposition of economic, administrative, and criminal liability for breach of contract, protections for minority shareholders, stronger anti-monopoly provisions, and guarantees against re-nationalization. Furthermore, Nazarbayev urged the development of a program for floating national companies' securities on capital markets. The Social Safety Net -------------- ¶6. (U) As a second priority, President Nazarbayev called for strengthening the social safety net. The state, he said, will not spare resources in supporting socially vulnerable segments of the population. He tasked the Government with raising pensions for a number of selected groups, such as WWII veterans and their families. Nazarbayev said that social policy needs to be brought into compliance with market forces, targeting stable employment as the key objective. He urged the adoption of an environmental code and a labor code as well as international standards of social responsibility for businesses. He discussed the importance of improving housing, educational, and healthcare infrastructure. Finally, President Nazarbayev said that Kazakhstan's circumstances are favorable for accepting inflows of foreign labor. He called for a one-time amnesty for migrant laborers, as well as a mechanism to attract highly educated, professional workers to Kazakhstan on a permanent basis. A Democratic Society -------------- ¶7. (U) President Nazarbayev named "further development of democracy and modernization of the political system" as another priority. He noted, however, that it is necessary to balance "the general patterns" shared by prosperous democratic states with "the important cultural and historical traits and traditions" of Kazakhstani society. Nazarbayev said that "the unity" demonstrated by the citizens in electing him last December leaves no doubt about the society's "consolidation," a precondition for the country's stable development. He went on to speak about "the anxiety, even fear at times" that Kazakhstanis experienced during the campaign, a phenomenon, he added, that "some were, apparently, counting on." "We all recall," he remarked, "the sigh of relief our citizens breathed after the election." ¶8. (U) Nazarbayev said that the absence of well-established democratic traditions and society's tendency to mistake permissiveness for freedom pose threats to the country's stability. Therefore, he continued, democratic traditions must be not only developed but also protected. The key to this, he stated, is enforcement of law and decisive prosecution of behavior such as slander, bribery, and violence. Nazarbayev welcomed NGOs' role in Kazakhstan's development, but said that ASTANA 00000029 003 OF 003 they will not be permitted to act outside the law. National Security -------------- ¶9. (U) Discussing national security, President Nazarbayev emphasized the creation of a professional army and the struggle against religious extremism, international terrorism, and drug trafficking. He spoke of regional cooperation on these issues, including anti-terrorist initiatives under the umbrella of NATO. Nazarbayev then turned to discussing corruption as "a threat to national security and social stability." He called for legislative amendments to bring transparency to the financial activities of state and private enterprises. He spoke in favor of an amnesty on capital and property taken out of legal domestic circulation, with the exception of funds directed toward illegal activities, such as drug or weapons trafficking. The plan calls for a 10% tax to be charged on the equities being legalized. Those who took capital out of circulation but fail to take advantage of the amnesty and pay the tax will be prosecuted, said Nazarbayev. International Relations -------------- ¶10. (U) The final priority cited by President Nazarbayev was "further realization of a balanced and responsible foreign policy." This called for developing a strategic partnership with Russia, strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation with China, strengthening senior-level relations with the U.S., developing cooperation with the European Union, closer coordination with neighboring Central Asian states, and developing relations with the countries of the Muslim world. Regarding the U.S., President Nazarbayev spoke of "a long-term and stable partnership characterized by broad cooperation on the issues of ensuring international energy security and stability, combating terrorism and religious extremism, and continuing democratization." Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Comment: President Nazarbayev's speech was long on economic reform, and there is ample evidence that Astana's prudent macroeconomic policies will continue. Nazarbayev's elevation of intellectual property protection was a particularly encouraging note, given the importance of this issue for WTO accession. In comparison with last year's speech, this annual address was much shorter than expected on democratic reform. Rather than break new ground, he stuck to the usual theme of following a "Kazakhstani path" to democracy. Senior sources in Astana tell us that the political uncertainty associated with the Sarsenbayev murder led to the decision to minimize the attention paid to it this year. The President's opening remarks to the Democratization Commission a few weeks later (see reftel) had the kind of detail that we had expected in this speech. End comment. TRACY