ABDUL SHAFI ALSO CLAIMS HE WILL RETURN TO DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000940 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016 TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV ER SU SUBJECT: ABDUL SHAFI ALSO CLAIMS HE WILL RETURN TO DARFUR REF: ASMARA 933 Classified By: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Ahmed Abdul Shafi plans to depart Asmara on November 12, to arrive in Darfur early next week in order to take part in the SLM military commanders meeting scheduled for November 15. He claims to be in close contact with his commanders as well as Sharif Harir and Khamis Abdalia Abakr. Shafi expressed skepticism about an Eritrean-led mediation, but, absent a viable alternative, feels the SLM could not turn down their offer to mediate. While Shafi strongly supports participation by the international community, in particular the U.S. and Chad, in a mediation, he claims the DPA non-signatories would prefer the AU not be included. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Shafi told Emboff on November 7 that he had been given the green light by the GSE to return to Darfur and consult with his commanders. His most recent travel plan (as of November 9) is to depart Asmara on November 12 for Nairobi. He said he is in contact with Khamis, currently in N'djamena, who is assisting him in arranging transit visas from Nairobi to N'djamena. He and Khamis plan to travel together early next week from N'djamena to Darfur. ¶3. (C) Shafi said he had explained to the GSE that it was imperative that he consult with the field before he made any decision to formally unite with the National Redemption Front (NRF) or agree to a mediation. He added that he has been coordinating with Sharif and Khamis about the upcoming commanders meeting, and explained that all three wanted to achieve some unity between the splintered SLM entities. He hoped that the meetings in Darfur would help to create one SLM and institutionalize the movement. He commented that both Ahmed Diraige of the NRF and Khalil Ibrahim of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM),were not happy about the meeting nor the decision by their fellow DPA non- signatories to travel to Darfur. ¶4. (C) Shafi refuted AbdulWahid al-Nur's statement (reftel) that the G-19 are back in his camp. Shafi explained that his intention in returning to Darfur was to understand where the loyalties of the commanders currently lie. He also wants to assess whether the military commanders will support uniting with the JEM, want a mediation and will accept Eritrea as a mediator. He hopes that the meetings will inform the next steps for all the DPA non-signatories. ¶5. (C) When asked about the role of Eritrea in a future mediation between the DPA non-signatories and the GNU, Shafi was hesitant. He said he had accepted the GSE mediation initially, but now felt that their opposition to a UN mission in Darfur and to an active role for the international community in a Darfur mediation ran counter to the interests of the Darfur people. The GSE told him in a recent meeting that while the GSE was considering a role for the international community in a mediation, the role would not be a central one. Shafi fears that the GSE would seek to exclude international participation as they did with the Eastern Sudan negotiations. He emphasized the need for the international community, especially the U.S., to play a key role in a future mediation. ¶6. (C) Shafi also highlighted the need for Chad to play a role in a Darfur mediation, even co-mediate, to ensure they do not pose a threat as a spoiler to a renewed process. However he doubted that either the GNU or the GSE would accept them as a co-mediator. He stated that some of his supporters had been approached by Nigeria about coming back to Abuja, and while they were considering it, nothing had been decided officially. Finally, Shafi said he had spoken with Sam Ibok last week. While he did not provide the details of the conversation, he commented that he, as well as the other DPA non-signatories, would "prefer the AU not play a role in a mediation." ¶7. (C) Comment: Shafi seems intent on returning to Darfur to consult with military commanders and coordinate with Sharif and Khamis regarding the future of the SLM and DPA non-signatories as well as a way forward on a Darfur mediation. In general, over the past few months, he has been the least inclined to abandon the SLM organization or falter under pressure from the GSE. Moreover, he appears to be the most cautious about a possible GSE led mediation, recognizing the need of the international community in any future process. End Comment. DELISI