EASTERN FRONT/GNU NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED, NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000679 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU SUBJECT: EASTERN FRONT/GNU NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED, NO AGREEMENTS YET CLASSIFIED BY: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: While the Eastern Front and the Government of Nation Unity(GNU) have both expressed optimism about progress in negotiations since their resumption August 8, outside advisors for the Eastern Front expressed concern about the Eastern Front's capabilities to achieve a fair agreement. The two trickiest issues - unification of the three eastern states and wealth sharing - remain as yet unresolved. Eastern Front leadership supports the idea of capacity training as suggested by AF/SPG. End Summary. VIEW FROM THE EASTERN FRONT -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 17, Poloff met with Dr. Amna Dirar, vice-chairman of the Eastern Front and chairman of the Beja Congress. While remaining optimistic about the direction of the talks, Dr. Dirar did express disappointment in the committee discussions on wealth sharing, which had concluded the same day without resolution of all of the issues. The GNU's proposal of USD 300 million for development and rehabilitation projects fell well below the Eastern Front's proposal of over USD 1 billion. The Eastern Front's proposal identified specific projects in areas such as health, education, agriculture and infrastructure. Most of these projects are small community targeted programs, such as health centers, wells and small livestock programs. In contradiction of an August 17th GSE-issued press release stating that the parties had come to agreement, Dr. Dirar said that no agreement had been reached. Both parties have consented to present outstanding issues to the mediator for resolution. Dirar noted that the primary unresolved economic issue for the Eastern Front is the total amount of money proposed by the GNU. ¶3. (C) Looking forward to committee discussions on security and power sharing which begin on August 21, Dirar reiterated the Eastern Front's commitment to unifying the three states of Kasala, Red Sea and Gederaf. While admitting that some members of the Eastern Front are considering alternatives, she reinforced that the one-state issue continues to be of utmost importance. She also said that the Eastern Front will be seeking to increase their representation within the military, police ;and the government institutions, including a vice president position at the central level. ¶4. (C) Dirar expressed appreciation for the support of Dr. Sara Pantuliano of the Overseas Development Institute. Pantuliano, a well-known and respected expert on Eastern Sudan, had provided assistance to the Eastern Front as they prepared for daily meetings. (Note: Pantuliano departed Asmara on August 19 but will return in September. End note.) Dirar repeated her request for additional international support in the areas of capacity-building and for immediate financial support to cover the expenses of negotiations. VIEW FROM THE SUDANESE EMBASSY -------------- ¶5. (C) During an introductory call by Charge on August 15, Sudanese Charge Hussein Mohamed Hussein stated that negotiations were going well and an agreement could be quickly reached. He noted that "80 percent" of the security committee's work and "90 percent" of the economic/wealth-sharing negotiations were complete. When asked about the outstanding political issues, Hussein explained that the GNU would not support the creation of a single state for the East and noted that the East already had adequate representation in the government. (Comment: The statement regarding the security committee's work is interesting considering that the security committee is scheduled to begin discussion the week of August 21. End comment.) He added that the political issues were not in fact vital to the Eastern Front as long as the economic issues were addressed. VIEW FROM THE EGYPTIANS -------------- ¶6. (C) Charge met with Egyptian DCM Hussein Elshar on August 19, long-term diplomat in Eritrea and follower of Sudan issues. Hussein disagreed with the Sudanese assessment that the Eastern Front would be willing to sacrifice the political agenda for economic objectives. However, he noted the Eritreans' strong influence on the process. A resolution, if any, will ultimately depend on what the Eritreans decide is in their own interest. VIEWS FROM EASTERN FRONT ADVISORS -------------- ¶7. (C) PolOff spoke with Dr. Pantuliano and Dr. Taiseir Ali of the Peacebuilding Center of the Horn of Africa (protect) about the talks. Both felt disheartened with the process thus far, noting that the Eastern Front was outgunned by the GNU delegation. For example, the GNU have very high level people from the Ministry of Finance on their side, while an Eastern Front member, a mid-level employee of the Ministry, is negotiating with his bosses. Pantuliano also expressed concern that the Eastern Front's focus on small-scale projects would not help them achieve long-term goals of wealth sharing. "A factory here and a water project there" will not be enough to support the Eastern Front and the region as a whole. Furthermore, in her meeting with Sudanese officials in Asmara, Pantuliano overheard conversations between Sudanese officials indicating that the GNU was "buying- off" members of the Eastern Front. (Note: The Sudanese officials speaking in Arabic in her presence were unaware that she is a fluent Arabic speaker. End note.) ¶8. (C) Comment: While both delegations are presenting an optimistic public face, post's discussions with the parties clearly show that significant gaps still remain to be bridged on the critical issues of wealth and power sharing. We doubt the Eastern Front delegation will readily concede its political agenda to achieve greater economic gains. We have no evidence that Eastern Front members have been "bought-off". However, a few members of the Eastern Front could be susceptible, thus weakening the Eastern Front's negotiating position. The role of Eritrea as an honest broker remains a question. Given that the limited capacity of the Eastern Front will continue to be an issue, post supports the idea of providing technical training to the Eastern Front. End Comment. MCINTYRE