EF/GNU NEGOTIATIONS UPDATE: REASONABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000625 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU SUBJECT: EF/GNU NEGOTIATIONS UPDATE: REASONABLE PROGRESS BUT TALKS NOW ON HOLD CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: According to both Eastern Front (EF) contacts and Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE) officials, there has been reasonable progress on the Eastern Front/Government of National Unity (EF/GNU) negotiations so far. The two trickiest issues are no surprise: whether to unify the three eastern Sudan states into a single political entity and how to hit the right balance between revenue sharing and government funding for development. Separate committees will address these questions. Surprisingly, however, the talks were unexpectedly adjourned on July 31, possibly for a few weeks. We have received no clear explanation yet for the adjournment but, based on what we have heard from the parties, have no reason at this point to believe there are serious problems. We will advise as further information becomes available. End Summary. MEETING WITH DR. AMNA DIRAR -------------- ¶2. (C) Dr. Amna Dirar, vice-chairman of the Eastern Front and chairman of the Beja Congress, met with PolOff on July 26 to provide an update on the EF/GNU talks. She stated that while negotiations seemed to be going well, she fears some outstanding issues may be difficult to resolve, such as the formation of one state for the east or tackling the problem of revenue and wealth sharing. She was also concerned about getting buy-in from the international community in light of the fact that there are no observers involved. ¶3. (C) The creation of one region in eastern Sudan from the current states of Kasala, Gederaf and Red Sea has been a focal point for the Eastern Front since the outset. They believe that the three states in eastern Sudan are not sustainable on their own. Moreover, as Dirar suggested, many of the people in eastern Sudan - and Sudan in general - are nomads, and the current set-up hurts them in a number of ways, taxation by the government being the hardest. ¶4. (C) Dirar stated that the Eastern Front wants representation from the local level up to the presidential institution. While not seemingly focused on percentages, EF representatives claim that they want a just and fair share of representation. They believe they may face resistance from the GNU, as the GNU has expressed the view that the east is already represented. Dirar explained that most of those individuals are National Congress Party (NCP) members and do not represent the people of the east. ¶5. (C) On wealth sharing, Dirar and other Eastern Front members have stipulated that a certain percentage of the revenues generated in the east, must be used to provide education, health and development assistance to the entire region, as well as provide compensation to some of the people in the east especially near Hamesh Koreib and South Tokar. Dirar also believes that a certain percentage of the revenues should be used for the environment and be focused on reversing the degradation caused by some of the mining, refineries and other industry in eastern Sudan. She noted that one of the biggest obstacles for the Eastern Front at this stage is having a better sense of the actual amounts of revenues generated in eastern Sudan. They have asked the diplomatic community for assistance in trying to gauge how much gas, gold and minerals are actually in eastern Sudan, as well as how much revenue is generated by Port Sudan and the mineral wealth that is exported. The GNU has not provided the Eastern Front, or to our knowledge the GSE, with any hard data on revenues. Dirar has heard that the World Bank did a survey in eastern Sudan a few years back, but no one has been able to access such a report. ¶6. (C) Once the issue of power and wealth sharing are resolved, negotiations are planned for finalizing a security arrangement. Thus far, the cessation of hostilities agreement from June has held. The Eastern Front believes that the GNU will take over positions formerly held by the SPLM, but will not move into Eastern Front areas. Dirar indicated that the security arrangement talks would need to focus on the implementation of a joint/integrated army. The creation of such an army would need to be gradual and take place over an 18-24 month period. ¶7. (C) Dirar also provided a sense of the actual mediation process. She explained that the Eritrean mediator spent the first week meeting individually with both sides. The mediator requested each side to provide papers and input on the three main issues - power sharing, wealth sharing and security arrangements. The second week, beginning July 24, the mediator brought both sides together to discuss each of the issues and some of the input provided. (Note: Other Sudanese sources who have met with the mediator explained that the GSE took this approach because they believed the Eastern Front's expectations were unrealistic. End Note.) ¶8. (C) Dirar indicated that the initial meetings with the GNU went well and they were expecting to start delving into each of the three areas over the next three weeks, starting with power sharing, and concluding with security arrangements. She explained that the GNU had wanted to discuss the issues simultaneously in smaller groups, but that the Eastern Front and mediator had pushed back due to the Eastern Front's lack of capacity. Dirar added that she and other Eastern Front members were also meeting with SPLM delegates, Malik Agar in particular, to seek advice on some of these issues. She noted that the Eastern Front had lost a strong supporter from the GNU side with the absence of SPLM advisor Yasir Arman. GSE BRIEFING TO THE ASMARA DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY -------------- -- ¶9. (C) On July 28, Yemane Ghebreab briefed the Asmara diplomatic corps on the progress of the talks which he categorized as "serious but without high levels of conflict." Confirming the information provided by Dr. Dirar, Yemane noted the parties had agreed on general overarching principles in the three main areas under discussion to include for the east: greater representation within the government, greater social equity to include "affirmative action plans" to redress development and representational imbalances and fairer distribution of revenues with a focus on developmental issues. He noted that the discussions are still in early stages and have not yet touched on modalities for implementation. ¶10. (C) From the GSE perspective, two issues stand out as the most critical at this point. The parties have yet to agree whether eastern Sudan will be recognized as one state, although Yemane stated both sides were "determined" to find a solution. Secondly, the parties are discussing a "holistic" approach to the distribution of revenues to promote development programs in the east. As the next step, Yemane said the parties had agreed to the formation of two committees to work out the details of these issues. POSTPONEMENT OF NEGOTIATIONS? -------------- ¶11. (C) As of July 31, Post has heard that negotiations will be postponed one to two weeks. The reasons for postponement are unclear. While some rumors suggest that the delay could be related to Eastern Front unreadiness, we also understand that the head of the GNU delegation, who was called back to Sudan July 25 supposedly on a short trip, has yet to return from Khartoum. Whatever the reason for the postponement, the Eastern Front could use the time effectively to continue its own efforts to educate its negotiators both on the substantive issues and on the art of negotiation. The imbalance between the expertise of the two delegations is, according to the GSE's Yemane Ghebreab, quite clear, although he noted that with the help of UN and Norwegian advisors, the EF has so far proven surprisingly capable. DELISI