AMBASSADOR YATES AND GSE TALK ON EASTERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000543

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR YATES AND GSE TALK ON EASTERN
FRONT/GNU NEGOTIATIONS


CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Following the conclusion of
preparatory talks between the Eastern Front and
Government of National Unity (GNU),Ambassador John
Yates had the opportunity to sit down with the
Eritrean mediator, PFDJ Political Advisor Yemane
Ghebreab, to discuss the just-concluded preliminary
round of negotiations, the agreements signed, and
what to expect from the next round of negotiations.
Ghebreab explained that the talks had gone well, most
issues were resolved, and those that had not been
would be addressed by the time the next round began
July 17. He also explained that the issue of
observers was still unclear. It seemed likely that
there would not/not be a "formal" role for observers,
but that international partners would be welcome back
for the next round in an informal capacity. Yemane
added that the GSE welcomed USG involvement and that
Ambassador Yates should feel free to return and be
present when the talks resume July 17. End Summary.

OUTCOME OF PRE-TALKS
--------------


2. (C) PFDJ Political Advisor and mediator for the
Eastern Front/GNU negotiations, Yemane Ghebreab,
began his discussion with Ambassador John Yates
(representing AF/SPG) by explaining that overall the
preparatory talks went very well and there were no
major obstacles. However, he noted, the talks did
not delve into any of the substantive issues. He did
acknowledge that there had been some concern at the
conclusion of the first round of talks that the
parties may not sign the Declaration of Principles
(DOP) and Cessation of Hostilities agreements. It
seems that the GNU had two specific sticking points
on the DOP and the Eastern Front would be unwilling
to sign the Cessation of Hostilities agreement unless
the DOP was also signed. Ghebreab explained that the
GNU had not liked the inclusion of language on
marginalization, and had wanted to link the
negotiations more explicitly to the interim
constitution especially on issues such as wealth
sharing. Neither the mediator nor the Eastern Front
backed down from the working draft, however, and the
GNU finally agreed. (Note: Both documents have been
sent to AF/FO, AF/SPG and AF/RSA. End Note).


3. (C) Ghebreab said that the "second round" of
negotiations would begin on July 17. This round
would last approximately one month and then there
would be another break of approximately one month
before a "third round" and, according to Ghebreab,
final round, began. Ghebreab explained that like
other negotiations in Sudan, there would be three
main issues to be discussed in the negotiations,
Wealth Sharing, Power Sharing and Security
Arrangements. However, unlike the negotiations in
Abuja and Naivasha, the issue of security would not
be the overriding issue and instead social and
economic issues related to Wealth Sharing would
probably take precedence and hence why these
negotiations could be resolved more quickly and more
easily.

ROLE OF OBSERVERS
--------------


4. (C) When asked about the role of observers,
Ghebreab admitted that this had probably been the
most contentious issue between the two parties. He
explained that the GNU did not want any observers and
that the Eastern Front wanted as many as possible.
The GSE, he commented, fell somewhere in the middle.
While both groups diverged considerably on the issue,
in the end they both decided to leave it up to the
mediator. Ghebreab explained the GSE's current
thinking on observers is to not have formal
observers, but instead have observers involved in an
informal capacity and possibly in expert or advisor

roles.


5. (C) Ghebreab claims that while the GNU's position
on observers is "not now", they did agree to three
points on the issue put forth by the GSE: 1) the GSE
is allowed to have friends and partners that they
consult with during the negotiations, 2) that if
during the negotiations the GSE or other parties
believe the issue of formal observers needs to be
revisited, the GSE is allowed to halt negotiations
and discuss with the parties, and 3) if/when the
parties reach an agreement, witnesses will be asked
to attend the signing of the agreement. The GNU
accepted these three points, and just asked to be
consulted if the GSE believes a formal observer role
is necessary.

IS THE EASTERN FRONT READY?
--------------


6. (C) One of the major concerns leading up to the
preparatory talks and during them was the issue of
Eastern Front readiness and unity. Ghebreab
explained that despite the rumors over the past few
months regarding splits in the Eastern Front, the
group made up mostly of Beja and Rashaida were
surprisingly united throughout the initial talks. He
agreed that most members of the Eastern Front still
needed some assistance on negotiations, but believed
that Dr. Amna Dirar's capabilities as well as the
plan to bring in more outside experts should
strengthen and bolster the group considerably.
Ghebreab also stated that during the break before
July 17, the Eastern Front was planning a conference
to bring in representatives from different areas and
groups of eastern Sudan and gain support for
negotiations and ensure the greatest amount of
representation in the Eastern Front. Ghebreab was
not sure when or where this conference would take
place, but stated that given GNU and GSE support for
the conference it may happen in eastern Sudan or in
Eritrea.


7. (C) Following this meeting, other sources
suggested that the conference has already been
scheduled for the week of July 3 and will probably
take place in Tesseney, Eritrea. (Note: a town very
close to the Sudan border. End Note) The conference
will closely model the Eastern Front meetings that
took place this past February/March between Rubda and
Hamesh Koreib. These meetings drew a large number of
Beja and Rashaida from outside Sudan as well as other
groups in eastern Sudan. Similarly, EmbOffs were
informed that the Eastern Front is organizing a
capacity building workshop beginning the week of July
10 in Asmara. It is not clear who will be running
the workshop. We have been told, however, that the
Norwegians and the Dutch may both be willing to play
roles in helping to support these events.

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ASSISTANCE
--------------


8. (C) As the meeting drew to a close, Ghebreab
reiterated a call for assistance from the
international community. He explained that between
now and July 17, the GSE would welcome advice,
suggestions and technical expertise on what a final
agreement should look like between the Eastern Front
and GNU. The GSE would like to be able to call on
experts for technical issues and have already asked
the Norwegians and UNMIS for their assistance and
expertise. He continued that while the US and GSE
have their differences on other policy matters, they
are of the same mind on Sudan and want the same
thing: a peaceful and stable Sudan. He invited
Ambassador Yates or other USG officials back for the
July 17 talks and again asked for any assistance we
might provide on these negotiations.

COMMENT
--------------



9. (C) Overall the preparatory talks appear to have
been a relative success. The GSE's ability to get
both parties to agree to a DOP and a cessation of
hostilities bodes well for its role in the next
round, and the cessation of hostilities agreement in
particular was especially timely given the recent
SPLM withdrawal from the Hamesh Koreb area. However,
as noted by Ghebreab, the Eastern Front will still
need assistance getting up to par with the GNU
delegation when it comes to negotiation skills.
While they have a few strong individuals they will
need to bring in outside experts to deal with the
myriad of details that they will face once they start
delving into the substantive issues next month.
Hopefully the Eastern Front conference, as well as
capacity building workshop, will provide them the
broader representation, negotiating skills and
confidence they need without sucking the momentum out
of the upcoming "second round." Although there will
not be an formal observer role initially, post
believes that the USG should consider providing a
technical expert or representative in the capacity of
Ambassador John Yates or other USG official. End
Comment.

DELISI