NEXT STEPS ON NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000467 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU SUBJECT: NEXT STEPS ON NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN KHARTOUM AND THE EASTERN FRONT CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Following a visit by a Sudanese delegation over Eritrea Independence Day, there has been some movement on the upcoming negotiations between the Government of National Unity (GNU) and Eastern Front. Much, however, remains unresolved. While a date has been set for the upcoming "talk about talks" and commitments made, there are still some outstanding issues regarding observers to these initial preliminary meetings as well as over whether there is any need for outside assistance. Both sides are expected to be in touch with the GSE mediator during the coming week to provide their agenda, lists of delegations and thoughts on observers for the talks. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Over Eritrean Independence Day, a Sudanese delegation led by VP Ali Osman Taha met with Eritrean officials to discuss the upcoming negotiations between the Government of National Unity (GNU) and Eastern Front. During discussions with the proposed mediator, PFDJ Political Chief Yemane Ghebreab, all sides agreed to an initial "talk about talks" to begin on June 13. It is currently envisioned that these "talks about talks" will take place in Asmara and be chaired by Gebreab and last perhaps three days. The focus of the talks will be on establishing an agenda for negotiations, a declaration of principles, inclusion of observers and other outstanding procedural issues. ¶3. (C) In discussions with Norwegian Ambassador Arman Aardal and Dr. Amna Dirar of the Eastern Front, ConOff was told that both sides are currently in touch with Ghebreab and that they plan to provide him with their agenda items and lists of observers by June 1. Once both sides have provided that information the GSE will draft an agenda and inform the resident diplomatic community of any financial needs required for talks and which governments would be asked to observe. Amna stressed that the Eastern Front would like the U.S., UK, Norway, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands in attendance at the June 13 discussions as observers. However, both Amna and Ardal explained that the GNU continues to raise concerns about observers and seems likely to push for as few as possible although it seems likely at this stage that they will request observers from Egypt and Libya. ¶4. (C) Aardal explained that Norway was willing to assist the GSE in any way necessary to ensure these negotiations go forward, including through provision of technical advisors and funding. Aardal queried whether the U.S. would also be willing to send observers and provide other technical and financial assistance if asked. ¶5. (C) While the Eastern Front leadership is now all assembled in Asmara, Amna stressed that it is still unclear who will be leading the GNU delegation from Khartoum. She explained that while initially it was believed that National Congress Party Representative Kamal Obeid had the lead regarding negotiations with the Eastern Front, it now appears that Presidential Advisor Nafi Ali Nafi may replace him. The Eastern Front believes that Nafi Ali Nafi's role in negotiations signal that the GNU is only interested in a quick fix but not concerned with addressing the underlying causes for problems in eastern Sudan. Nafi Ali Nafi led the Khartoum delegation to Cairo last year when they signed an agreement with Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Leader Mirghani. While it was initially believed that the agreement was between NCP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA),only the DUP signed on to it. The Eastern Front (Beja Congress and Rashaida Free Lions) denounced the agreement last year and refused to attend the negotiations and instead pushed for separate negotiations with the GNU. ¶6. (C) Action for Department: Post requests guidance on whether the we would be willing to send observers to the preparatory talks beginning June 13 if requested by the GSE and the parties and whether we would be willing/able to respond to any possible requests for assistance for negotiations, in particular the need for technical advisors. ¶7. (C) Comment: While many issues surrounding negotiations remain unresolved, setting the date for preparatory talks and agreeing on a general framework for them are positive signs. Given criticisms of the Cairo Agreement struck last year and events that surrounded it, post agrees with the Eastern Front that the Eritrean hosted negotiations might be yet another attempt by Khartoum to try and reach a quick fix - but not necessarily a substantive one - with the people of eastern Sudan so that they can refocus their attentions on implementation of Naivasha and quelling on-going problems in Darfur End Comment. DELISI